Victor Farias

P FCL Nationals

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 150 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	ROKWSH	12	12	28	7.07	3.39	25.2%	8.7%	—	K 17.1% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.83
2024	22	ROKWSH	1	1	2	27.00	4.30	18.2%	18.2%	—	K 18.2% · BB 18.2% · FIP 3.87
2025	23	MIX2 levels	23	6	54	4.97	4.26	21.2%	17.3%	—	K 14.6% · BB 21.1% · FIP 5.23
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	6	6	38	5.73	5.73	19.1%	17.9%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	4	4	21	5.56	5.54	20.0%	17.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	5	5	30	5.48	5.49	20.2%	16.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsEriq Swan (age 22) · Drew Conover (age 23) · Alex Makarewich (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.73

FIP5.73

K%19.1%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	12	28	127	32	11	3	100%	2.3	17.1%	10.8%	6.3%	3.3%	7.07	4.83	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	12	12	28	127	32	11	3	100%	2.3	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	2.4%	7.07	3.39	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	1	1	2	11	2	2	0	100%	1.7	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	3.87	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	1	1	2	11	2	2	0	100%	1.7	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	3.87	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	1	1	2	11	2	2	0	100%	1.7	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	4.30	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	6	54	255	54	44	3	26%	2.4	14.6%	21.1%	-6.5%	1.2%	4.97	5.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	6	54	255	54	44	3	26%	2.4	14.6%	21.1%	-6.5%	1.2%	4.97	5.23	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	6	54	255	54	44	3	26%	2.4	21.2%	17.3%	3.9%	1.2%	4.97	4.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	6	6	38	160	31	29	5	100%	6.3	19.1%	17.9%	1.2%	2.9%	5.73	5.73	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	49	206	41	35	6	100%	6.1	20.0%	17.0%	3.0%	2.9%	5.56	5.54	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	48	204	41	34	6	100%	6.0	20.2%	16.5%	3.7%	3.0%	5.48	5.49	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	21	89	18	15	3	100%	5.2	20.0%	17.0%	3.0%	2.9%	5.56	5.54	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	30	127	26	21	4	100%	6.0	20.2%	16.5%	3.7%	3.0%	5.48	5.49	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	51	216	43	36	6	100%	5.7	20.1%	16.7%	3.4%	2.9%	5.51	5.13	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	141	23	100%	6.0	20.1%	16.7%	3.4%	2.9%	5.51	5.13	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		36	19	84	393	61	70	7	53%	2.3	15.5%	17.7%	-2.2%	1.9%	6.11	5.06	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	45	200	936	145	166	17	53%	2.3	15.5%	17.7%	-2.2%	1.9%	6.11	5.06	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Farias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.73	19.1%	17.9%	2.9%	—	5.52	20.1%	3.4%	97	-0.21	—	—	—
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	78
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	78
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	77
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.36	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.25	2.10	351	76
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	76
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.88	14.6%	5.6%	271	-0.78	4.28	282	74
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	73
Will Bednar R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	24	SW	6.40	23.8%	23.1%	4.3%	.240	3.83	25.5%	9.4%	115	-2.57	3.38	202	73
Adrian Chaidez R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	24	SW	4.96	19.4%	16.3%	2.6%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	144	72
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	71
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	71
Elian Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	24	SW	5.60	18.3%	21.9%	2.3%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	109	70
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	70
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	70
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	70
Brandon Morrow R 2009 · 4.89 FIP	25	SW	4.89	20.1%	13.7%	3.2%	.284	3.37	25.5%	16.4%	450	-1.52	2.67	922	70
Pierce Johnson R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	22.9%	15.7%	3.4%	.321	3.55	24.8%	13.4%	121	-1.48	2.75	598	70
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	69
Octavio Acosta R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	13.8%	16.1%	2.6%	.328	4.03	16.2%	7.5%	245	-1.39	3.88	333	69
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	19.8%	17.1%	1.13	5.58
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*