Victor Farias
P
FCL Nationals
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 150 lbs
ROK
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%21.4%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 12 | 12 | 28 | 127 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 2.3 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 7.07 | 4.81 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 12 | 12 | 28 | 127 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 2.3 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 7.07 | 3.39 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.00 | 3.87 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.00 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 6 | 54 | 255 | 54 | 44 | 3 | 26% | 2.4 | 14.6% | 21.1% | -6.5% | 1.0% | 4.97 | 5.09 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 6 | 54 | 255 | 54 | 44 | 3 | 26% | 2.4 | 21.2% | 17.3% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 4.97 | 4.26 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 32 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 33 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 0 | 95 | 401 | 89 | 43 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.15 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 90 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 36 | 19 | 84 | 393 | 61 | 70 | 7 | 53% | 2.3 | 15.5% | 17.7% | -2.2% | 1.7% | 6.11 | 4.97 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 45 | 200 | 936 | 145 | 166 | 16 | 53% | 2.3 | 15.5% | 17.7% | -2.2% | 1.7% | 6.11 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor Farias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 21.4% | 11.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.50 | 22.2% | 11.6% | 107 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 83 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 82 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 81 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 81 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 80 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 79 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.87 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 1.7% | .322 | 4.79 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 146 | +0.92 | 3.18 | 234 | 78 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .286 | 4.12 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 226 | +0.56 | 3.56 | 262 | 78 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 78 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.41 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 4.2% | .370 | 3.48 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 142 | -1.93 | 2.88 | 157 | 78 |
| Trent Fennell R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 78 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 77 |
| Sean Harney R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 77 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 77 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 253 | 77 |
| Irving Jimenez R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.63 | 18.5% | 12.8% | 0.9% | .313 | 4.12 | 14.1% | 1.7% | 50 | +0.49 | 3.63 | 104 | 77 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 169 | +0.28 | 3.81 | 233 | 76 |
| Phil Klein R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 76 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.09 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .304 | 3.92 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 166 | -1.17 | 3.59 | 307 | 76 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 4.1% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 318 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 35 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 1.11 | 4.57 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |