Brian Carrion
Brian Carrion
P
ACL White Sox
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
ROK
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION6 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.4%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.1%
IP6
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 8 | 5 | 18 | 84 | 21 | 13 | 0 | 17.0% | 19.3% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 4.11 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 6 | 1 | 11 | 56 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 19.6% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 9.00 | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 8 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 20.6% | 20.1% | 2.2% | 7.59 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 6 | — | 6 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 6 | 40 | 196 | 37 | 34 | 2 | 18.8% | 17.6% | 1.1% | 6.97 | 4.37 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 110 | 30 | 200 | 980 | 185 | 170 | 10 | 18.8% | 17.6% | 1.1% | 6.97 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brian Carrion (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.41 | 23.3% | 13.9% | 20 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.85 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 138 | 85 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .417 | 2.29 | 18.7% | 12.7% | 59 | -1.70 | 1.94 | 131 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 82 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .237 | 2.64 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.75 | 2.45 | 386 | 82 |
| David Hernandez R 2029 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 81 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 81 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 25.2% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 111 | 81 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 25.7% | 8.4% | 3.6% | .333 | 5.42 | 18.7% | 4.8% | 23 | +1.43 | 2.54 | 202 | 80 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 3.49 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.20 | 2.59 | 156 | 80 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.66 | 17.4% | 3.6% | 29 | +0.67 | 3.44 | 147 | 79 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 79 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .243 | 3.63 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -0.89 | 3.56 | 198 | 79 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.53 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .340 | 3.99 | 21.8% | 13.6% | 94 | +0.46 | 2.67 | 177 | 79 |
| Blake Holub R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 229 | 79 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.30 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.16 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.86 | 2.80 | 155 | 78 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 78 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 78 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 78 |
| Stephen Fife R 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.20 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.2% | .329 | 3.62 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.42 | 3.20 | 179 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.