Grant Hartwig
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.56
FIP4.37
xFIP6.93
SIERA5.74
K%22.8%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.2%
IP27
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p1620.5%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
SI (35%)
FB (39%)
SL (33%)
CT (21%)
CH (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 8 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.09 | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 39 | 0 | 57 | 234 | 83 | 24 | 1 | 27.6% | 11.2% | 0.6% | 1.75 | 2.52 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 52 | 0 | 64 | 295 | 67 | 31 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | 4.92 | 3.84 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 42 | 2 | 49 | 223 | 47 | 25 | 5 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 1.2% | 4.96 | 3.65 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 21 | 0 | 24 | 113 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 25.7% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 3.42 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 6 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 5 | 8 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIN | 27 | — | 27 | 113 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 33 | 148 | 30 | 20 | 5 | 20.0% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 5.79 | 3.73 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 168 | 5 | 211 | 951 | 216 | 106 | 18 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 3.97 | 3.64 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 5 | 200 | 901 | 205 | 100 | 17 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 3.97 | 3.64 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Hartwig (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.62 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 26 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 84 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 84 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 84 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 82 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 81 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 80 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.09 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.54 | 2.28 | 186 | 80 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 80 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 80 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 80 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 79 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 79 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 79 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 79 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .276 | 4.87 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 22 | +0.86 | 2.78 | 312 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.