Grant Hartwig — OGILVIE

Grant Hartwig P St. Paul Saints

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.47

FIP4.56

K%20.7%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5050

SI (35%)

FB (39%)

SL (33%)

CT (21%)

CH (7%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	12	51	12	4	1	38%	1.5	23.5%	7.8%	15.7%	2.0%	3.09	3.18	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	3	12	51	12	4	1	38%	1.5	23.5%	7.8%	15.7%	2.0%	3.09	3.19	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	39	0	57	234	83	24	1	0%	1.5	27.6%	11.2%	16.4%	0.6%	1.75	2.52	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	39	0	57	234	83	24	1	0%	1.5	35.5%	10.3%	25.2%	0.4%	1.75	1.67	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	64	295	67	31	6	0%	1.2	20.6%	9.9%	10.6%	2.1%	4.92	3.79	+0.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	64	295	67	31	6	0%	1.2	20.6%	9.9%	10.6%	2.1%	4.92	3.79	+0.6
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	64	295	67	31	6	0%	1.2	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	2.0%	4.92	3.68	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	42	2	49	223	47	25	5	5%	1.2	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	1.2%	4.96	3.52	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	42	2	49	223	47	25	5	5%	1.2	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	1.2%	4.96	3.52	+0.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	42	2	49	223	47	25	5	5%	1.2	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.2%	4.96	4.04	+0.3
2025	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	21	0	24	113	33	9	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	7.2%	17.1%	4.2%	3.42	4.25	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	21	0	24	113	33	9	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	7.2%	17.1%	4.2%	3.42	4.25	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	21	0	24	113	33	9	5	0%	1.1	29.2%	8.0%	21.2%	4.4%	3.42	4.20	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	0	42	189	34	18	4	0%	1.3	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	2.1%	5.14	4.00	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	34	0	40	191	38	19	4	0%	1.2	16.5%	9.0%	7.6%	2.3%	6.30	4.10	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	34	0	40	191	38	19	4	0%	1.2	16.5%	9.0%	7.6%	2.3%	6.30	4.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	MIN	34	0	40	191	38	19	4	0%	1.2	19.9%	9.9%	9.9%	2.1%	6.30	3.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIN	49	0	51	217	44	21	7	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.70	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIN	46	0	48	204	41	21	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.2%	9.8%	3.3%	4.75	4.87	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIN	43	0	45	190	37	20	7	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.5%	4.94	5.08	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIN	18	0	19	80	16	8	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.70	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIN	26	0	27	114	23	12	4	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.2%	9.8%	3.3%	4.75	4.87	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIN	29	0	30	127	25	13	4	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.5%	4.94	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	118	509	97	51	15	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.0%	9.2%	2.9%	4.92	4.32	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		177	0	200	864	165	87	25	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.0%	9.2%	2.9%	4.92	4.32	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		196	5	245	1107	237	107	21	3%	1.2	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	1.9%	4.19	3.54	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	4	200	904	193	87	17	3%	1.2	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	1.9%	4.19	3.54	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Hartwig (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	20.7%	9.8%	2.9%	—	4.87	19.9%	9.8%	144	+0.31	—	—	—
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	88
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	85
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	85
Sam Dyson R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	28	SU	3.42	19.3%	8.1%	1.7%	.287	3.76	18.9%	11.9%	187	+0.34	2.66	333	85
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	85
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	85
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	84
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	84
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	84
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	83
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	83
Pedro Beato R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	17.4%	7.5%	1.6%	.276	3.93	19.0%	11.2%	192	+0.46	3.47	295	83
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	83
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	83
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	83
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	20.1%	10.1%	1.22	4.68
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78