Yujanyer Herrera

P Spokane Indians

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#807ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ACarolina Mudc…	22	11	79	4.08	3.73	18.7%	13.5%	—	K 13.8% · BB 15.9% · FIP 4.53
2024	20	MIX2 levels	22	15	101	3.04	2.19	26.5%	8.2%	—	K 20.2% · BB 9.5% · FIP 2.90
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	22	86	7.51	5.56	20.7%	13.1%	—	K 16.2% · BB 14.3% · FIP 6.32
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	1	1	1	5.60	5.60	17.5%	13.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCOL	9	9	52	5.61	5.52	19.1%	12.2%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCOL	10	10	57	5.39	5.29	20.1%	11.3%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsCobi Johnson (age 23) · Jacob Meador (age 23) · Chase Cohen (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 123

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%17.5%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%3.8%

Proj IP121

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Blue	11	4	35	184	37	28	7	36%	3.2	13.7%	19.0%	-5.3%	5.6%	9.00	7.44	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Blue	11	4	35	184	37	28	7	36%	3.2	20.1%	15.2%	4.9%	3.8%	9.00	5.99	—
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	58	269	55	23	3	67%	3.9	14.1%	10.3%	3.8%	1.5%	6.48	4.02	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	58	269	55	23	3	67%	3.9	20.4%	8.6%	11.9%	1.1%	6.48	3.07	—
2023	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	22	11	79	348	65	47	3	50%	3.6	13.8%	15.9%	-2.1%	1.0%	4.08	4.53	—
2023	19	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	22	11	79	348	65	47	3	50%	3.6	18.7%	13.5%	5.2%	0.9%	4.08	3.73	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	101	415	110	34	2	68%	4.6	20.2%	9.5%	10.7%	0.6%	3.04	2.90	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	101	415	110	34	2	68%	4.6	20.2%	9.5%	10.7%	0.6%	3.04	2.90	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	15	101	415	110	34	2	68%	4.6	26.5%	8.2%	18.3%	0.5%	3.04	2.19	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	86	420	87	55	17	96%	3.8	16.2%	14.3%	1.9%	5.1%	7.51	6.32	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	86	420	87	55	17	96%	3.8	16.2%	14.3%	1.9%	5.1%	7.51	6.32	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	86	420	87	55	17	96%	3.8	20.7%	13.1%	7.6%	4.0%	7.51	5.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	17.5%	13.7%	3.8%	3.4%	5.60	5.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	121	510	98	62	17	100%	5.5	19.1%	12.2%	7.0%	3.3%	5.33	5.24	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	86	364	73	41	12	100%	5.7	20.1%	11.3%	8.9%	3.3%	5.11	5.01	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	84	354	73	39	12	100%	6.0	20.7%	11.0%	9.6%	3.3%	4.99	4.93	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	81	342	71	38	11	100%	5.8	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	3.3%	4.96	4.95	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	77	325	67	36	11	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	3.4%	5.01	5.04	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	72	302	61	34	11	100%	6.0	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	3.6%	5.11	5.17	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	65	274	55	32	10	100%	5.9	20.0%	11.7%	8.3%	3.8%	5.25	5.35	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	52	220	42	27	8	100%	5.8	19.1%	12.2%	7.0%	3.8%	5.61	5.52	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	57	241	48	27	9	100%	5.7	20.1%	11.3%	8.9%	3.8%	5.39	5.29	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	67	283	58	31	11	100%	6.1	20.7%	11.0%	9.6%	3.8%	5.26	5.20	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	69	291	60	32	11	100%	5.8	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	3.8%	5.24	5.23	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	68	287	59	32	11	100%	6.2	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	3.9%	5.30	5.33	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	65	274	56	31	11	100%	5.9	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	4.1%	5.41	5.47	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	60	253	51	30	11	100%	6.0	20.0%	11.7%	8.3%	4.3%	5.57	5.67	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	438	1850	375	210	73	100%	5.9	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	3.9%	5.38	5.00	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	171	96	33	100%	5.9	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	3.9%	5.38	5.00	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		93	62	360	1636	263	217	41	67%	3.9	16.1%	13.3%	2.8%	2.5%	5.48	4.82	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	34	200	910	146	121	23	67%	3.9	16.1%	13.3%	2.8%	2.5%	5.48	4.82	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 82 IPFIP 5.12 → 6.32 (+1.20)K% 21.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.01%	—	×0.770	16.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.41%	—	×1.150	14.27%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.12 → 6.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 4 IPFIP 6.98 → 8.54 (+1.56)K% 16.0% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.00%	—	×0.740	11.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.00%	—	×1.180	28.32%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.20%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.98 → 8.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 84 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.08 (+0.66)K% 23.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.65%	—	×0.770	18.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.98%	—	×1.150	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷1.086	×1.250	0.66%

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACarolina Mudcats · 17 IPFIP 0.73 → 1.87 (+1.14)K% 42.2% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.19%	—	×0.740	31.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.180	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.101	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.73 → 1.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 79 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.53 (+0.82)K% 18.7% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.68%	—	×0.740	13.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×1.180	15.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷1.072	×1.300	1.05%

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Brewers Blue · 44 IPFIP 2.31 → 3.35 (+1.04)K% 24.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.96%	—	×0.680	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.21%	—	×1.250	6.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.005	×1.400	1.45%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.31 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACarolina Mudcats · 15 IPFIP 4.96 → 5.71 (+0.74)K% 11.7% → 8.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.69%	—	×0.740	8.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.88%	—	×1.180	19.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.136	×1.300	1.49%

Result: FIP 4.96 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Brewers Blue · 35 IPFIP 5.42 → 7.44 (+2.02)K% 20.1% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.11%	—	×0.680	13.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.22%	—	×1.250	19.02%
HR / BF /BF	3.80%	÷0.948	×1.400	5.62%

Result: FIP 5.42 → 7.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yujanyer Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	5.08	19.9%	8.3%	291	-0.52	—	—	—
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	88
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	88
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	88
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	87
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	87
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	85
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	85
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	85
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	84
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	84
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	83
Buddy Borden R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	13.8%	12.4%	2.6%	.257	4.52	14.3%	-1.0%	115	-0.40	4.05	242	83
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	82
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	81
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
Jeff Brigham R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	14.5%	11.3%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.8%	8.5%	288	-0.98	3.48	620	80
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	80
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	88	19.7%	11.8%	1.32	5.20
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Jack O'Connor ('81-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.6	64	18.6%*	11.4%*	1.20*	4.96*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83
Dustin Nippert ('10)	1.3	67	17.6%	11.2%	1.18	5.31