Alex Martinez — OGILVIE

Alex Martinez P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 170 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%21.5%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	24	101	33	13	0	0%	1.4	24.7%	13.7%	10.9%	0.0%	1.52	2.76	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	24	101	33	13	0	0%	1.4	32.7%	12.9%	19.8%	0.0%	1.52	1.96	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	26	123	40	18	1	0%	1.3	21.9%	18.6%	3.4%	1.4%	6.23	4.34	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	26	123	40	18	1	0%	1.3	32.5%	14.6%	17.9%	0.8%	6.23	2.60	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	31	136	42	25	0	0%	1.6	24.3%	19.1%	5.2%	0.0%	1.74	3.47	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	31	136	42	25	0	0%	1.6	24.3%	19.1%	5.2%	0.0%	1.74	3.47	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	31	136	42	25	0	0%	1.6	30.9%	18.4%	12.5%	0.0%	1.74	2.81	—
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	48	0	69	289	77	31	1	0%	1.4	19.7%	12.7%	7.1%	0.5%	2.60	3.32	—
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	48	0	69	289	77	31	1	0%	1.4	19.7%	12.7%	7.1%	0.5%	2.60	3.32	—
2024	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	48	0	69	289	77	31	1	0%	1.4	26.6%	10.7%	15.9%	0.3%	2.60	2.41	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	40	0	67	304	91	38	10	0%	1.7	22.6%	14.5%	8.1%	4.2%	6.45	5.32	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	40	0	67	304	91	38	10	0%	1.7	22.6%	14.5%	8.1%	4.2%	6.45	5.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	LAA	21	0	35	152	47	16	3	0%	1.7	30.9%	10.5%	20.4%	2.0%	4.37	2.91	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	LAA	19	0	32	152	44	22	7	0%	1.7	28.9%	14.5%	14.5%	4.6%	8.72	5.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAA	64	0	67	284	63	32	8	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.2%	11.1%	2.8%	4.62	4.55	0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	65	0	68	287	65	30	8	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	2.8%	4.49	4.42	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	65	0	68	287	66	30	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	2.8%	4.43	4.39	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	64	0	67	283	65	29	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAA	62	0	65	274	63	29	8	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	3.0%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAA	28	0	29	122	27	14	3	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.2%	11.1%	2.8%	4.62	4.55	0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	43	0	45	190	43	20	5	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	2.8%	4.49	4.42	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	51	0	54	228	52	24	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	2.8%	4.43	4.39	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	54	0	57	241	55	25	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAA	55	0	58	245	56	26	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	3.0%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		231	0	243	1024	233	108	29	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.07	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	89	24	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		145	0	217	953	211	144	16	0%	1.5	22.1%	15.1%	7.0%	1.7%	3.98	4.05	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	0	200	878	194	132	15	0%	1.5	22.1%	15.1%	7.0%	1.7%	3.98	4.05	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	21.5%	12.4%	2.8%	—	4.45	22.6%	12.0%	203	-0.32	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	93
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	92
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	91
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	91
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	91
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	91
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	91
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	91
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	90
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	90
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	90
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	90
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	89
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	89
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	88
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	88
Vince Arobio R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.67	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.80	3.67	118	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	63	22.6%	10.8%	1.10	4.52
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84