Manuel Mercedes

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.6 · 2031

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+SF	26	25	116	5.28	4.42	16.9%	10.3%	—	K 13.0% · BB 11.8% · FIP 5.18
2025	22	MIX2 levels	31	16	91	6.70	4.78	14.6%	11.6%	—	K 11.0% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.18
2026	23	AASF	35	0	47	7.99	4.87	16.8%	12.0%	—	K 13.6% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.20
2027PROJ	24	MLBSF	54	0	57	6.11	6.11	10.5%	15.2%	-0.9
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSF	34	0	36	5.80	5.72	13.2%	13.9%	-0.5
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBSF	53	0	56	5.59	5.53	14.8%	13.4%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsWirkin Estevez (age 24) · Tyler Brashears (age 23) · Ted Stuka (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.11

FIP6.11

K%10.5%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%-4.6%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	14	13	56	252	62	25	5	93%	4.0	16.7%	12.4%	4.3%	2.6%	5.11	4.69	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	14	13	56	252	62	25	5	93%	4.0	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	2.0%	5.11	3.38	—
2022	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	25	9	81	370	67	63	7	36%	3.2	13.4%	20.1%	-6.7%	2.3%	5.13	5.78	—
2022	19	A RAW	San Jose Giants	25	9	81	370	67	63	7	36%	3.2	18.1%	17.0%	1.1%	1.9%	5.13	4.91	—
2023	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	25	21	106	467	72	41	2	84%	4.3	11.4%	10.4%	1.0%	0.6%	3.64	3.79	—
2023	20	A RAW	San Jose Giants	25	21	106	467	72	41	2	84%	4.3	15.4%	8.8%	6.6%	0.4%	3.64	3.15	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	26	25	116	526	89	54	13	96%	4.5	13.0%	11.8%	1.2%	3.1%	5.28	5.18	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	26	25	116	526	89	54	13	96%	4.5	13.0%	11.8%	1.2%	3.1%	5.28	5.18	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	26	25	116	526	89	54	13	96%	4.5	16.9%	10.3%	6.7%	2.5%	5.28	4.42	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	16	91	424	62	49	10	52%	2.9	11.0%	12.7%	-1.7%	2.5%	6.70	5.18	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	16	91	424	62	49	10	52%	2.9	11.0%	12.7%	-1.7%	2.5%	6.70	5.18	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	16	91	424	62	49	10	52%	2.9	14.6%	11.6%	3.1%	2.4%	6.70	4.78	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	35	0	47	250	42	30	6	0%	1.4	13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	2.9%	7.99	5.20	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	35	0	47	250	42	30	6	0%	1.4	13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	2.9%	7.99	5.20	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	35	0	47	250	42	30	6	0%	1.4	16.8%	12.0%	4.8%	2.4%	7.99	4.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SF	54	0	57	241	25	37	7	0%	1.1	10.5%	15.2%	-4.6%	2.9%	6.11	6.11	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	79	0	83	351	46	49	10	0%	1.1	13.2%	13.9%	-0.7%	2.9%	5.80	5.72	-1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	79	0	83	351	52	47	10	0%	1.1	14.8%	13.4%	1.4%	2.9%	5.59	5.53	-0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	78	0	82	346	52	46	10	0%	1.1	15.2%	13.2%	2.0%	3.0%	5.51	5.50	-0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	76	0	80	336	58	42	10	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.4%	4.8%	3.1%	5.36	5.28	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	72	0	76	320	54	40	10	0%	1.1	17.0%	12.6%	4.3%	3.2%	5.39	5.41	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	68	0	71	301	50	39	10	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.9%	3.7%	3.4%	5.51	5.59	-0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	34	0	36	152	20	21	4	0%	1.1	13.2%	13.9%	-0.7%	2.9%	5.80	5.72	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	53	0	56	236	35	32	7	0%	1.1	14.8%	13.4%	1.4%	2.9%	5.59	5.53	-0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	61	0	64	270	41	36	8	0%	1.0	15.2%	13.2%	2.0%	3.0%	5.51	5.50	-0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	64	0	67	283	49	35	9	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.4%	4.8%	3.1%	5.36	5.28	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	64	0	67	283	48	36	9	0%	1.0	17.0%	12.6%	4.3%	3.2%	5.39	5.41	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	61	0	64	270	45	35	9	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.9%	3.7%	3.4%	5.51	5.59	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		337	0	353	1492	237	194	46	0%	1.0	15.9%	13.0%	2.9%	3.1%	5.50	5.11	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	134	110	26	0%	1.1	15.9%	13.0%	2.9%	3.1%	5.50	5.11	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		156	84	498	2289	294	303	52	54%	3.2	12.9%	13.2%	-0.4%	2.3%	5.40	4.94	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	34	200	919	118	122	21	54%	3.2	12.9%	13.2%	-0.4%	2.3%	5.40	4.94	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.11	10.5%	15.2%	2.9%	—	5.58	14.4%	0.9%	248	-0.53	—	—	—
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	90
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	82
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	82
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	81
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	80
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	79
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	79
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	79
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	78
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	78
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	77
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	76
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	76
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	76
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	76
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	75
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	75
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.33	21.4%	7.0%	173	-0.73	4.21	254	75
David Whitehead R 2016 · 6.00 FIP	24	SW	6.00	10.7%	19.2%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	217	74
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	76	15.1%	13.3%	1.18	5.59
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Jerry Johnson ('68-'77, -4 WAR*)	3.9	77	19.4%*	11.3%*	1.06*	5.08*