Michael Morales

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #494MiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP45ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	27	27	149	3.02	3.03	24.1%	6.2%	—	K 19.0% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.03
2025	22	AASEA	22	22	102	4.60	3.45	16.1%	8.5%	—	K 13.0% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.13
2026	23	AASEA	17	17	66	6.11	5.38	20.1%	14.3%	—	K 16.3% · BB 15.7% · FIP 6.18
2027PROJ	24	MLBSEA	12	12	67	5.35	5.35	15.0%	11.1%	-0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSEA	7	7	41	5.08	5.00	16.8%	10.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBSEA	10	10	62	4.93	4.88	17.8%	9.7%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff47Control47Command60FB velo42

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsChris Kachmar (age 24) · Aaron Heilman (age 24) · Charlie Morton (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%15.0%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%3.9%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5045

CTRL—50

CMD5060

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	1	1	1	6	1	1	0	100%	1.0	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	3.80	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	1	1	1	6	1	1	0	100%	1.0	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	4.10	—
2022	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	26	26	120	559	125	50	14	100%	4.6	16.5%	10.6%	6.0%	3.8%	5.91	5.13	—
2022	19	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	26	26	120	559	125	50	14	100%	4.6	22.4%	8.9%	13.4%	2.5%	5.91	3.78	—
2023	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	22	22	101	435	106	40	7	100%	4.6	18.0%	10.9%	7.2%	2.4%	4.53	4.25	—
2023	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	22	22	101	435	106	40	7	100%	4.6	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	1.6%	4.53	3.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	610	147	38	13	100%	5.5	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.0%	3.02	4.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	610	147	38	13	100%	5.5	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.0%	3.02	4.03	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	149	610	147	38	13	100%	5.5	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	2.1%	3.02	3.03	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	102	435	70	37	5	100%	4.6	13.0%	9.4%	3.7%	1.7%	4.60	4.13	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	102	435	70	37	5	100%	4.6	13.0%	9.4%	3.7%	1.7%	4.60	4.13	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	102	435	70	37	5	100%	4.6	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	1.1%	4.60	3.45	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	17	17	66	294	59	42	11	100%	3.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.5%	4.5%	6.11	6.18	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	17	17	66	294	59	42	11	100%	3.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.5%	4.5%	6.11	6.18	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	17	17	66	294	59	42	11	100%	3.9	20.1%	14.3%	5.8%	3.7%	6.11	5.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SEA	12	12	67	283	42	31	9	100%	5.6	15.0%	11.1%	3.9%	3.1%	5.35	5.35	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	16	16	93	391	66	39	12	100%	5.8	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	3.1%	5.12	5.04	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	93	391	70	38	12	100%	6.2	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	3.1%	4.97	4.92	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	91	385	69	37	12	100%	6.1	18.0%	9.7%	8.3%	3.2%	4.93	4.92	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	88	374	67	37	12	100%	5.9	18.0%	9.8%	8.2%	3.2%	4.96	4.99	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	84	357	63	36	12	100%	6.0	17.7%	10.0%	7.7%	3.4%	5.06	5.12	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	79	335	65	32	12	100%	6.1	19.4%	9.5%	9.8%	3.6%	5.04	5.03	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	41	173	29	17	5	100%	5.9	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	3.0%	5.08	5.00	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	62	262	47	25	8	100%	6.2	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	3.0%	4.93	4.88	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	71	300	54	29	9	100%	5.9	18.0%	9.7%	8.3%	3.1%	4.89	4.88	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	75	317	57	31	10	100%	6.2	18.0%	9.8%	8.2%	3.2%	4.92	4.95	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	74	312	55	31	10	100%	6.2	17.7%	10.0%	7.7%	3.3%	5.01	5.07	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	71	300	58	29	11	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.5%	9.8%	3.5%	4.99	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	66	393	1661	300	163	53	100%	6.0	18.0%	9.8%	8.3%	3.2%	4.96	4.58	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	83	27	100%	6.0	18.0%	9.8%	8.3%	3.2%	4.96	4.58	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		115	115	540	2339	392	237	71	100%	4.7	16.8%	10.1%	6.6%	3.0%	4.65	4.62	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	43	200	867	145	88	26	100%	4.7	16.8%	10.1%	6.6%	3.0%	4.65	4.62	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Morales (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	15.0%	11.1%	3.1%	—	4.96	17.5%	7.7%	276	-0.39	—	—	—
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	89
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	88
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	88
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	88
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	87
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	86
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	85
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	85
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.22	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.02	3.57	306	85
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	85
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	84
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	84
Erich Uelmen R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	15.3%	10.7%	2.7%	.299	4.57	19.8%	8.8%	159	-0.07	3.48	383	84
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	83
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	82
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	82
Patrick McGuff R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	12.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	133	82
Matt Kinney R 2000 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP	5.71	12.9%	12.9%	3.8%	.260	4.75	17.1%	7.6%	257	-0.96	4.02	390	82
James Proctor R 2022 · 4.39 FIP	24	SP	4.39	14.0%	12.5%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	109	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	85	17.6%	9.9%	1.26	5.05
Les Webber ('42-'48, -1 WAR*)	2.2	86	17.0%*	10.4%*	1.30*	5.13*
John Montague ('73-'80, -2 WAR*)	2.7	91	17.0%*	9.3%*	1.23*	4.98*
Victor Santos ('07)	3.0	86	15.6%	10.2%	1.29	5.21
Rich Yett ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	2.1	104	16.6%*	10.2%*	1.31*	5.04*
Micah Owings ('12)	2.4	97	16.4%	9.8%	1.19	4.86
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83