Irv Carter

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	37	73	3.80	3.90	25.5%	12.1%	—	K 19.1% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.09
2025	22	A+TOR	27	60	5.67	4.62	22.7%	7.3%	—	K 17.5% · BB 8.4% · FIP 6.22
2026	23	AATOR	10	17	4.86	4.12	27.2%	19.8%	—	K 22.0% · BB 21.7% · FIP 4.81
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	54	57	5.36	5.36	18.7%	13.4%	-0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBTOR	24	25	5.17	5.12	19.5%	12.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBTOR	37	39	5.06	5.03	20.0%	11.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJarret Whorff (age 24) · Hayden Snelsire (age 23) · Victor Santos (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%18.7%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%5.3%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	48	204	53	15	10	77%	3.7	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	7.5%	5.48	6.82	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	48	204	53	15	10	77%	3.7	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	4.9%	5.48	4.55	—
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	13	10	38	194	30	31	9	77%	2.9	11.4%	18.9%	-7.4%	4.7%	8.60	7.11	—
2023	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	13	10	38	194	30	31	9	77%	2.9	15.5%	16.0%	-0.5%	4.6%	8.60	7.08	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	73	306	78	37	8	0%	2.0	19.1%	14.2%	4.8%	3.3%	3.80	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	73	306	78	37	8	0%	2.0	19.1%	14.2%	4.8%	3.3%	3.80	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	73	306	78	37	8	0%	2.0	25.5%	12.1%	13.4%	2.6%	3.80	3.90	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	27	0	60	273	62	20	12	0%	2.2	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	6.4%	5.67	6.22	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	27	0	60	273	62	20	12	0%	2.2	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	6.4%	5.67	6.22	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	27	0	60	273	62	20	12	0%	2.2	22.7%	7.3%	15.4%	4.4%	5.67	4.62	—
2026	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	10	0	17	81	22	16	1	0%	1.7	22.0%	21.7%	0.3%	1.5%	4.86	4.81	—
2026	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	10	0	17	81	22	16	1	0%	1.7	22.0%	21.7%	0.3%	1.5%	4.86	4.81	—
2026	23	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	10	0	17	81	22	16	1	0%	1.7	27.2%	19.8%	7.4%	1.2%	4.86	4.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	54	0	57	241	45	32	8	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.4%	5.3%	3.2%	5.36	5.36	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	244	48	30	8	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.2%	7.3%	3.2%	5.17	5.12	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	244	49	29	8	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.9%	8.1%	3.2%	5.06	5.03	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	24	0	25	106	21	13	3	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.2%	7.3%	3.2%	5.17	5.12	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	37	0	39	165	33	20	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.9%	8.1%	3.2%	5.06	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	270	54	33	9	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.0%	7.8%	3.2%	5.10	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	103	28	0%	1.1	19.8%	12.0%	7.8%	3.2%	5.10	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		100	20	236	1058	183	139	53	20%	2.4	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	5.0%	5.46	6.06	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	17	200	898	155	118	45	20%	2.4	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	5.0%	5.46	6.06	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Irv Carter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	18.7%	13.4%	3.2%	—	5.08	19.8%	7.7%	116	-0.29	—	—	—
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	88
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	88
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	85
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	85
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	84
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	84
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	83
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	83
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	82
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	82
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	82
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	82
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	82
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	82
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	19.4%	12.5%	1.23	5.20
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*