Christian Little

Christian Little P Everett AquaSox

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%20.9%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	71	293	73	32	4	100%	4.2	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	2.7%	3.95	4.48	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	71	293	73	32	4	100%	4.2	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	2.7%	3.95	4.48	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	71	293	73	32	4	100%	4.2	24.9%	10.9%	14.0%	1.4%	3.95	3.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	38	0	53	220	68	25	6	0%	1.4	23.8%	13.1%	10.7%	3.4%	3.23	4.62	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	38	0	53	220	68	25	6	0%	1.4	23.8%	13.1%	10.7%	3.4%	3.23	4.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	SEA	38	0	53	220	68	25	6	0%	1.4	30.9%	11.4%	19.5%	2.7%	3.23	3.43	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	SEA	5	0	5	22	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	3.0%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	58	242	73	28	7	—	—	30.0%	11.5%	18.5%	2.7%	3.38	4.65	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	275	60	33	8	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	2.9%	4.82	4.76	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	63	0	66	279	62	31	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.69	4.63	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	63	0	66	279	63	31	8	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.59	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	274	62	30	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.1%	11.4%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	60	0	63	266	59	30	8	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	SEA	27	0	28	118	26	14	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	2.9%	4.82	4.76	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	42	0	44	186	41	21	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.69	4.63	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	50	0	52	220	49	24	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.59	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	52	0	55	232	52	26	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.1%	11.4%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	53	0	56	236	53	27	7	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		225	0	236	995	222	112	30	0%	1.0	22.3%	11.2%	11.0%	3.0%	4.67	4.27	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	95	25	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.2%	11.0%	3.0%	4.67	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		55	17	124	513	110	65	15	31%	2.2	21.4%	12.7%	8.7%	3.0%	3.64	4.54	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	27	200	830	177	105	25	31%	2.2	21.4%	12.7%	8.7%	3.0%	3.64	4.54	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Little (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	20.9%	12.9%	3.0%	—	4.66	22.1%	10.7%	197	-0.31	—	—	—
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	96
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	90
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	89
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	88
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	87
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	87
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	86
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	86
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	85
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	83
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	83
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	82
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	82
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	81
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	81
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	81
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	81
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	81
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	81
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	64	22.0%	11.5%	1.15	4.73
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22