Hedbert Perez
LF New Hampshire Fisher Cats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/INTL2 orgs | 167 | .263/.325/.447 | 3 | 2 | 92 | — | .187/.228/.347 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+MIL | 345 | .209/.330/.411 | 14 | 7 | 43 | — | .147/.241/.270 |
| 2026 | 23 | AATOR | 175 | .227/.337/.420 | 6 | 6 | 69 | — | .191/.274/.344 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBTOR | 2 | .198/.282/.336 | 0 | 0 | 75 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBTOR | 51 | .203/.287/.350 | 1 | 1 | 80 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBTOR | 99 | .206/.290/.359 | 3 | 2 | 83 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 68 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 206 | 246 | 452 | 77 | 256 | 37 | 1 | 207 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 132 | 120 | 40 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 333 | 394 | 575 | 969 | 242 | 425 | 26 | 6 | 424 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 441 | 407 | 88 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 30 | 132 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 216 | 273 | 393 | 666 | 177 | 279 | 30 | 7 | 294 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 257 | 232 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 68 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 216 | 289 | 345 | 634 | 129 | 277 | 26 | 9 | 286 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 79 | 73 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 219 | 278 | 397 | 676 | 178 | 292 | 29 | 8 | 299 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 88 | 79 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 304 | 368 | 494 | 861 | 190 | 371 | 19 | 9 | 374 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 292 | 61 | 11 | 3 | 14 | 51 | 90 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 209 | 330 | 411 | 741 | 202 | 250 | 26 | 15 | 333 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 175 | 150 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 51 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 227 | 337 | 420 | 757 | 193 | 301 | 29 | 14 | 340 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 68 | 65 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 162 | 185 | 346 | 62 | 237 | 50 | 1 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 132 | 123 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 273 | 374 | 647 | 154 | 323 | 37 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 441 | 415 | 63 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 184 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 152 | 198 | 260 | 458 | 108 | 238 | 42 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 257 | 239 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 93 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 159 | 215 | 247 | 462 | 88 | 236 | 36 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 79 | 75 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 187 | 228 | 347 | 575 | 160 | 259 | 37 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 307 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 121 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 147 | 241 | 270 | 511 | 124 | 206 | 35 | 10 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 175 | 157 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 62 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 191 | 274 | 344 | 618 | 153 | 279 | 35 | 10 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 200 | 188 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 83 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 235 | 309 | 544 | 122 | 300 | 42 | 3 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 200 | 185 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 59 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 276 | 330 | 459 | 789 | 184 | 370 | 30 | 4 | 350 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 441 | 415 | 63 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 184 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 152 | 198 | 260 | 458 | 108 | 241 | 42 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 441 | 407 | 88 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 30 | 132 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 216 | 273 | 393 | 666 | 177 | 279 | 30 | 7 | 294 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 257 | 239 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 93 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 159 | 215 | 247 | 462 | 88 | 238 | 36 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 257 | 232 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 68 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 216 | 289 | 345 | 634 | 129 | 277 | 26 | 9 | 286 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 157 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 166 | 211 | 287 | 497 | 121 | 247 | 37 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 167 | 152 | 40 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 263 | 325 | 447 | 773 | 184 | 336 | 24 | 8 | 339 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 307 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 121 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 147 | 241 | 270 | 511 | 124 | 208 | 35 | 10 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 292 | 61 | 11 | 3 | 14 | 51 | 90 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 209 | 330 | 411 | 741 | 202 | 250 | 26 | 15 | 333 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 175 | 157 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 62 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 191 | 274 | 344 | 618 | 153 | 278 | 35 | 10 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 175 | 150 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 51 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 227 | 337 | 420 | 757 | 193 | 301 | 29 | 14 | 340 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 200 | 186 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 83 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 312 | 547 | 124 | 294 | 42 | 3 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 441 | 414 | 63 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 184 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 152 | 198 | 261 | 459 | 109 | 238 | 42 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 257 | 238 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 93 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 160 | 215 | 248 | 463 | 88 | 236 | 36 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 156 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 167 | 211 | 288 | 499 | 122 | 259 | 37 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 304 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 121 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 148 | 241 | 273 | 514 | 125 | 206 | 35 | 10 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 175 | 155 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 62 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 194 | 274 | 348 | 623 | 155 | 279 | 35 | 10 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 156 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 167 | 211 | 288 | 499 | 122 | 259 | 37 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 345 | 304 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 121 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 148 | 241 | 273 | 514 | 125 | 206 | 35 | 10 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 175 | 155 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 62 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 194 | 274 | 348 | 623 | 155 | 279 | 35 | 10 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | TOR | 2% | 225 | 199 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 198 | 282 | 335 | 617 | 138 | 259 | 29 | 10 | 279 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | TOR | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 282 | 336 | 618 | 138 | 260 | 50 | 0 | 279 | 75 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | TOR | 31% | 164 | 146 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 286 | 349 | 636 | 147 | 261 | 29 | 10 | 286 | 80 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | TOR | 45% | 223 | 197 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 63 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 289 | 358 | 647 | 152 | 263 | 28 | 10 | 290 | 83 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | TOR | 31% | 51 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 287 | 350 | 637 | 147 | 262 | 29 | 10 | 287 | 80 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | TOR | 45% | 99 | 88 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 290 | 359 | 649 | 152 | 264 | 28 | 10 | 291 | 83 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 150 | 134 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 287 | 336 | 622 | 134 | 264 | 29 | 10 | 290 | 48 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +3 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 117 | 26 | 0 | 17 | 65 | 186 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 201 | 286 | 334 | 620 | 133 | 265 | 29 | 10 | 290 | 48 | -14 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2077 | 1899 | 326 | 74 | 8 | 49 | 153 | 746 | 17 | 44 | 21 | 172 | 240 | 296 | 536 | 125 | 249 | 36 | 7 | 239 | 48 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +11 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 48 | 233 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 172 | 239 | 296 | 535 | 125 | 250 | 36 | 7 | 239 | 48 | -15 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 175 PAwOBA .331 → .270 (−62)K% 29.1% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 16.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 9.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.85% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .331 → .270; ISO .193 → .153; BABIP .301 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 345 PAwOBA .322 → .232 (−89)K% 26.1% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷0.943 | ×1.270 | — | — | 35.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.91% | ÷0.965 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 10.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.34% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 14.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.013 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.93% | ÷1.246 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.50% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 89, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .322 → .232; ISO .202 → .130; BABIP .250 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 79 PAwOBA .291 → .227 (−64)K% 29.1% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.11% | ÷0.993 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.59% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 14.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 8.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.36% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .291 → .227; ISO .178 → .134; BABIP .292 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 257 PAwOBA .278 → .207 (−72)K% 26.5% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.46% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.17% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.12% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×1.030 | 17.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.10% | ÷1.090 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×1.030 | 4.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | ×1.030 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.66% | ÷1.072 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.81% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .278 → .207; ISO .129 → .091; BABIP .277 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ACarolina Mudcats · 441 PAwOBA .288 → .203 (−84)K% 29.9% → 41.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.93% | ÷0.977 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.80% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.45% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×1.045 | 15.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.36% | ÷1.036 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×1.045 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.966 | ×1.045 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.136 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 4.01% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 107, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .288 → .203; ISO .177 → .115; BABIP .279 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Brewers Gold · 132 PAwOBA .412 → .279 (−133)K% 25.8% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.76% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.06% | ÷1.021 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 3.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.74% | ÷1.002 | ×0.820 | ×0.952 | ×1.022 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.79% | ÷0.986 | ×0.720 | ×0.952 | ×1.022 | 9.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.720 | ×0.952 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.98% | ÷0.964 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 5.77% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .412 → .279; ISO .242 → .165; BABIP .425 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ACarolina Mudcats · 68 PAwOBA .201 → .146 (−55)K% 36.8% → 50.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.76% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 50.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.47% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 1.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 2.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.177 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 3.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.052 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.974 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 2.16% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 98, 2B 135, 3B 110, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .201 → .146; ISO .077 → .049; BABIP .256 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .