Aldrin Lucas
C ACL Royals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROKKC | 95 | .301/.463/.411 | 1 | 5 | 78 | — | .225/.347/.312 |
| 2024 | 21 | A/ROKKC | 154 | .238/.388/.311 | 1 | 3 | 49 | — | .175/.296/.235 |
| 2025 | 22 | A/ROKKC | 87 | .264/.384/.333 | 1 | 0 | 53 | — | .206/.291/.271 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBKC | 200 | .206/.279/.297 | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBKC | 24 | .207/.280/.304 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBKC | 64 | .210/.283/.312 | 1 | 1 | 71 | 0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals White | — | 120 | 98 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 194 | 304 | 235 | 539 | 41 | 228 | 18 | 10 | 251 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | — | 119 | 94 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 368 | 340 | 708 | 128 | 266 | 24 | 16 | 327 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 95 | 73 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 301 | 463 | 411 | 874 | 110 | 389 | 19 | 19 | 405 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 72 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 143 | 333 | 161 | 494 | 18 | 235 | 31 | 14 | 264 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 82 | 66 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 318 | 438 | 439 | 877 | 121 | 370 | 15 | 15 | 389 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 36 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 278 | 172 | 450 | 69 | 143 | 22 | 19 | 231 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 51 | 43 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 372 | 460 | 442 | 902 | 70 | 429 | 16 | 14 | 403 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals White | — | 120 | 102 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 137 | 235 | 176 | 411 | 39 | 147 | 22 | 8 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL KC Glass | — | 119 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 140 | 265 | 230 | 495 | 90 | 165 | 29 | 11 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 95 | 80 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 225 | 347 | 312 | 660 | 87 | 299 | 27 | 12 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 72 | 59 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 102 | 264 | 119 | 383 | 17 | 212 | 43 | 10 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 82 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 239 | 325 | 338 | 663 | 99 | 277 | 21 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 36 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 222 | 161 | 384 | 65 | 126 | 31 | 14 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 51 | 46 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 283 | 340 | 348 | 688 | 65 | 334 | 24 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals White | — | 120 | 102 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 137 | 235 | 176 | 411 | 39 | 167 | 22 | 8 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Royals White | — | 120 | 98 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 194 | 304 | 235 | 539 | 41 | 228 | 18 | 10 | 251 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL KC Glass | — | 119 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 140 | 265 | 230 | 495 | 90 | 185 | 29 | 11 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL KC Glass | — | 119 | 94 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 368 | 340 | 708 | 128 | 266 | 24 | 16 | 327 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 95 | 80 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 225 | 347 | 312 | 660 | 87 | 321 | 27 | 12 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Royals | — | 95 | 73 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 301 | 463 | 411 | 874 | 110 | 389 | 19 | 19 | 405 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 130 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 177 | 296 | 238 | 535 | 62 | 268 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 154 | 122 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 238 | 388 | 311 | 700 | 74 | 318 | 22 | 14 | 330 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 87 | 77 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 279 | 260 | 539 | 65 | 259 | 26 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 87 | 72 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 384 | 333 | 717 | 69 | 321 | 18 | 16 | 332 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals White | — | 120 | 106 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 132 | 235 | 170 | 405 | 38 | 147 | 22 | 8 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL KC Glass | — | 119 | 101 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 139 | 265 | 228 | 493 | 89 | 165 | 29 | 11 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 95 | 80 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 225 | 347 | 312 | 660 | 87 | 299 | 27 | 12 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 131 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 176 | 296 | 237 | 533 | 61 | 247 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 87 | 78 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 279 | 256 | 535 | 64 | 248 | 26 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 131 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 176 | 296 | 237 | 533 | 61 | 247 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 87 | 78 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 279 | 256 | 535 | 64 | 248 | 26 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | KC | 0% | 200 | 180 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 58 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 279 | 297 | 576 | 91 | 286 | 29 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | KC | 30% | 81 | 74 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 282 | 309 | 591 | 99 | 287 | 28 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | KC | 44% | 146 | 132 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 285 | 317 | 602 | 105 | 287 | 29 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 49% | 190 | 171 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 54 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 286 | 319 | 605 | 107 | 286 | 28 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | KC | 51% | 229 | 206 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 65 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 285 | 319 | 604 | 107 | 286 | 28 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | KC | 30% | 24 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 280 | 304 | 584 | 96 | 285 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 68 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | KC | 44% | 64 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 283 | 312 | 594 | 102 | 285 | 28 | 8 | 270 | 71 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 49% | 93 | 85 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 284 | 313 | 597 | 103 | 285 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 72 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | KC | 51% | 118 | 106 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 283 | 313 | 596 | 103 | 284 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 72 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 299 | 271 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 84 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 210 | 282 | 306 | 588 | 96 | 288 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 57 | -10 | +1 | -0 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 589 | 124 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 183 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 211 | 282 | 307 | 590 | 97 | 288 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 57 | -22 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1268 | 1114 | 214 | 29 | 8 | 17 | 110 | 355 | 29 | 20 | 8 | 192 | 282 | 278 | 560 | 86 | 262 | 28 | 9 | 253 | 57 | -24 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +15 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 110 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 182 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 193 | 282 | 280 | 562 | 88 | 262 | 28 | 9 | 253 | 57 | -23 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 ROKACL Royals · 51 PAwOBA .401 → .299 (−101)K% 15.7% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.69% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.73% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 8.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.86% | ÷1.019 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 33.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 2.31% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 114, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .401 → .299; ISO .070 → .056; BABIP .429 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 36 PAwOBA .227 → .172 (−55)K% 22.2% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.44% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | — | 13.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.099 | ×0.920 | — | — | 7.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.830 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | — | — | 4.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.086 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 120, 2B 83, 3B 87, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .227 → .172; ISO .069 → .064; BABIP .143 → .126. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Royals · 82 PAwOBA .384 → .283 (−102)K% 14.6% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.63% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.63% | ÷1.010 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.63% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | ×0.971 | ×0.985 | 22.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.986 | ×0.720 | ×0.971 | ×0.985 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | ×0.971 | ×0.985 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.949 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 1.50% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 96, K 107, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .384 → .283; ISO .121 → .094; BABIP .370 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 72 PAwOBA .259 → .193 (−66)K% 30.6% → 43.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.56% | ÷0.964 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.89% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.33% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 6.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷1.037 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 2.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 107, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .259 → .193; ISO .018 → .014; BABIP .235 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Royals · 95 PAwOBA .396 → .284 (−112)K% 18.9% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.95% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 11.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.21% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.09% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | ×0.997 | ×0.995 | 22.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.997 | ×0.995 | 6.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.932 | ×0.720 | ×0.997 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.41% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .396 → .284; ISO .110 → .081; BABIP .389 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL KC Glass · 119 PAwOBA .322 → .212 (−110)K% 23.5% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.97% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 11.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.36% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | ×0.972 | ×0.995 | 14.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.136 | ×0.600 | ×0.972 | ×0.995 | 0.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.012 | ×0.600 | ×0.972 | ×0.995 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.879 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 2.42% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 104, 2B 127, 3B 102, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .322 → .212; ISO .128 → .072; BABIP .266 → .165. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Royals White · 120 PAwOBA .251 → .173 (−78)K% 17.5% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.952 | ×1.008 | 14.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.952 | ×1.008 | 0.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.952 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.61% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .251 → .173; ISO .041 → .022; BABIP .228 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).