Aldrin Lucas — OGILVIE

Aldrin LucasC ACL Royals

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 94 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .281 / .289

PA94

HR1

K%28

BB%9

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT39

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Royals White	—	120	104	16	1	0	1	7	30	4	2	2	154	235	192	427	38	197	25	6	186	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL Royals White	—	120	98	19	1	0	1	12	21	4	2	2	194	304	235	539	41	228	18	10	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL KC Glass	—	119	101	16	1	1	3	12	40	4	2	0	158	274	277	551	119	220	34	10	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL KC Glass	—	119	94	20	1	1	3	19	28	4	2	0	213	368	340	708	128	266	24	16	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	95	79	17	4	0	1	12	26	4	5	0	215	347	304	651	89	308	27	13	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	95	73	22	5	0	1	18	18	4	5	0	301	463	411	874	110	389	19	19	405	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	2 teams	—	154	131	23	3	1	1	13	50	8	3	3	176	289	237	526	61	272	32	8	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	2 teams	—	154	122	29	4	1	1	22	34	8	3	3	238	388	311	700	74	318	22	14	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	2 teams	—	87	77	15	0	1	1	9	24	0	0	0	195	279	260	539	65	264	28	10	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	2 teams	—	87	72	19	0	1	1	14	16	0	0	0	264	384	333	717	69	321	18	16	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	KC	—	94	85	17	3	1	1	8	27	1	2	0	200	277	294	571	94	276	29	9	264	60	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	KC	30%	180	159	34	6	1	3	16	50	3	3	1	214	298	321	619	107	279	28	9	273	67	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2028	25	MLB	KC	44%	276	246	53	9	2	5	24	75	4	5	1	215	296	329	625	114	280	27	9	279	71	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2029	26	MLB	KC	51%	343	305	64	11	2	6	30	92	5	6	2	210	291	318	609	108	280	27	9	282	74	-10	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.6
2030	27	MLB	KC	52%	378	336	71	12	2	7	34	101	5	7	2	211	293	321	615	110	281	27	9	283	75	-11	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.7
2031	28	MLB	KC	53%	398	353	75	13	2	7	36	107	6	7	2	212	296	320	616	108	280	27	9	282	74	-12	+1	-1	+7	+11	0.7
2032	29	MLB	KC	53%	403	358	75	13	2	7	36	110	6	7	2	209	292	316	608	106	279	27	9	280	72	-13	+1	-1	+7	+11	0.5
2033	30	MLB	KC	56%	403	358	75	13	2	7	36	111	6	7	2	209	292	316	608	106	278	28	9	277	70	-14	+1	-2	+7	+11	0.4
2034	31	MLB	KC	59%	383	340	70	12	2	6	35	106	5	6	2	206	289	306	595	100	275	28	9	273	67	-14	+0	-3	+7	+11	0.1
2035	32	MLB	KC	61%	357	317	65	11	2	6	32	100	5	6	2	205	288	309	597	104	272	28	9	268	63	-15	+0	-4	+6	+10	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	KC	30%	54	48	10	2	0	1	5	15	1	1	0	208	296	312	609	104	275	28	9	259	57	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	25	MLB	KC	44%	122	108	23	4	1	2	11	33	2	2	1	213	298	324	622	111	277	27	9	265	61	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	26	MLB	KC	51%	174	154	33	6	1	3	15	47	3	3	1	214	297	325	621	110	277	27	9	268	63	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	27	MLB	KC	52%	198	175	37	6	1	4	18	53	3	4	1	211	296	326	622	114	277	27	9	269	64	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2031	28	MLB	KC	53%	212	188	40	7	1	4	19	57	3	4	1	213	295	324	620	112	277	27	9	268	63	-9	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.1
2032	29	MLB	KC	53%	212	188	40	7	1	4	19	58	3	4	1	213	295	324	620	112	276	27	9	266	62	-9	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.0
2033	30	MLB	KC	56%	228	202	42	7	1	4	21	63	3	4	1	208	292	312	604	104	275	28	9	264	60	-10	+0	-1	+4	+6	-0.1
2034	31	MLB	KC	59%	227	202	41	7	1	4	20	63	3	4	1	203	284	307	591	104	272	28	9	260	57	-11	+0	-2	+4	+6	-0.2
2035	32	MLB	KC	61%	218	193	38	6	1	3	20	61	3	3	1	197	282	285	567	88	269	28	9	255	53	-12	+0	-2	+4	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1645	1458	304	52	8	29	148	450	24	29	8	209	292	315	607	106	279	27	9	264	60	-74	+3	-6	+29	+47	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	120	21	3	11	58	178	9	11	3	208	290	312	603	104	279	27	9	264	60	-29	+1	-2	+12	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	3790	3349	686	112	21	62	340	1049	66	68	21	205	291	306	597	102	276	28	9	271	65	-148	+5	-10	+68	+107	2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	118	19	4	11	58	180	11	12	4	206	290	310	600	105	276	28	9	271	65	-25	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Royals White	—	120	98	19	1	0	1	12	21	4	2	2	194	304	235	539	41	228	18	10	251	50	-7	-0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2022	19	ROK	DSL KC Glass	—	119	94	20	1	1	3	19	28	4	2	0	213	368	340	708	128	266	24	16	327	108	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	95	73	22	5	0	1	18	18	4	5	0	301	463	411	874	110	389	19	19	405	168	+7	+1	—	—	+3	1.1
2024	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	72	56	8	1	0	0	10	22	6	2	1	143	333	161	494	18	235	31	14	264	60	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	21	ROK	ACL Royals	—	82	66	21	3	1	1	12	12	2	1	2	318	438	439	877	121	370	15	15	389	156	+5	-1	—	—	+2	0.7
2025	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	36	29	3	0	1	0	7	8	0	0	0	103	278	172	450	69	143	22	19	231	35	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	22	ROK	ACL Royals	—	51	43	16	0	0	1	7	8	0	0	0	372	460	442	902	70	429	16	14	403	166	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,738	30	30	210	289	316	+31	+24	2.0	2.0
	/162	664	11	11	210	289	316	+11.9	+9.2	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aldrin Lucas (OGILVIE)	23	34→39	34→39	45→50	57	199/281/289	90	276	1	2	28%	9%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Marco Hernandez 2021 · A	23	46	39→40	49→45	47	220/285/308	87	282	6	8	23%	7%	66	-0.6	203/292/299	96	283	8	4	29%	9%	68	-0.5	162/268/244	82	214	10	0	27%	10%	41	-0.6
✕Chris Denove 2006 · A	23	44	40	46→40	46	211/286/303	92	280	7	5	26%	8%	66	-0.6	199/259/270	71	270	4	4	26%	6%	44	-2.1	244/302/337	93	298	7	3	19%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	38→30	48→40	51	205/292/282	77	270	6	7	25%	10%	63	-0.8	226/312/290	64	313	3	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1	233/324/284	51	328	2	2	26%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Aaron McKeithan 2023 · A	23	45	41→40	45→40	44	215/291/309	94	292	8	4	28%	7%	69	-0.4	213/291/294	81	270	8	4	23%	7%	66	-0.6	205/291/269	63	262	7	0	23%	8%	57	-0.3
✕Alfredo González 2015 · A	23	42	38→40	52→45	43	203/264/285	81	271	6	9	26%	6%	50	-1.7	230/291/295	65	314	4	6	26%	7%	64	-0.8	225/288/284	59	300	4	5	25%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Vito Friscia 2021 · A	24	43	40→45	49→40	42	208/266/303	94	290	7	5	30%	7%	56	-1.3	208/289/325	117	317	12	4	35%	9%	72	-0.2	195/284/314	119	296	12	2	35%	10%	66	-0.3
✕Francisco Acuna 2023 · A	23	42→50	40→45	47→50	41	200/273/299	98	286	7	11	31%	6%	59	-1.1	217/287/310	93	290	7	13	26%	7%	68	-0.5	209/292/304	96	279	9	16	26%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Yoel Romero 2021 · A	23	43	38→40	46→50	45	205/266/285	80	275	6	9	27%	7%	52	-1.6	212/262/306	94	320	8	4	34%	6%	55	-1.4	201/249/291	90	304	8	0	35%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	41→40	46→45	48	206/290/308	102	278	8	6	27%	9%	69	-0.4	221/302/309	88	318	7	6	30%	9%	74	-0.1	242/332/316	74	335	8	6	27%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2023 · A	23	42	40→55	50→40	43	203/279/294	91	279	7	6	28%	7%	60	-1.0	209/281/354	145	278	18	4	31%	7%	78	+0.2	186/269/361	175	235	26	0	33%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Michael Papierski 2019 · A	23	38→44	39→45	47→40	54	184/290/266	83	249	7	6	27%	12%	59	-1.1	192/281/280	88	271	9	4	30%	10%	59	-1.1	204/292/309	105	261	11	0	25%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Stephen McGee 2014 · A	23	45	39→40	46→30	51	215/302/299	83	279	6	7	24%	9%	72	-0.2	196/276/266	70	278	4	3	28%	9%	52	-1.6	196/283/297	101	281	10	1	31%	10%	60	-0.4
✕Robert Mullen 2019 · A	23	44	39→45	50→45	43	208/266/299	91	288	6	6	28%	7%	55	-1.4	218/262/335	117	303	13	4	31%	4%	63	-0.8	210/248/330	121	284	15	0	31%	3%	55	-0.6
✕Wyatt Hendrie 2022 · A	23	44	41→40	50	46	213/277/315	103	287	8	6	28%	8%	64	-0.8	188/262/273	85	311	7	9	38%	7%	48	-1.9	161/243/248	87	242	10	13	35%	8%	32	-1.0
✕Larry Cobb 2008 · A	23	40→43	39→45	47→50	49	193/267/275	82	244	7	10	23%	8%	50	-1.7	210/273/324	114	268	12	11	25%	6%	65	-0.7	206/269/325	118	259	13	11	25%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Alex De Goti 2018 · A	23	41→47	40→45	44→50	44	198/272/290	92	289	8	7	33%	8%	56	-1.3	225/277/344	119	285	12	7	24%	6%	72	-0.2	215/285/328	114	279	10	6	25%	8%	69	-0.4
✕Bryan Lavastida 2021 · A	22	47→44	38→45	46→55	46	221/291/303	81	299	5	8	26%	8%	66	-0.6	220/287/340	120	289	12	13	26%	7%	75	-0.0	219/292/337	118	281	12	27	25%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Ricardo Valencia 2016 · A	23	44	41→40	49→30	45	211/278/313	103	291	8	6	29%	8%	64	-0.8	211/268/304	93	309	8	3	32%	6%	57	-1.2	200/254/285	85	299	8	0	34%	6%	45	-0.7
✕Sam Praytor 2022 · A	23	45	39→50	49→55	45	208/292/298	90	319	6	7	34%	9%	67	-0.5	204/279/314	110	289	10	5	31%	8%	66	-0.6	177/251/295	118	237	13	7	30%	8%	46	-0.6
✕Wilmer Perez 2021 · A	23	46	39→45	50→45	42	220/270/304	85	286	5	7	24%	6%	58	-1.2	209/261/289	80	294	5	6	29%	5%	50	-1.8	185/240/241	57	251	2	6	26%	3%	27	-1.0