Aldrin Lucas — OGILVIE

Aldrin LucasC ACL Royals

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR -5%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.3 · 2030

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .288 / .326

PA94

HR2

K%29

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35↗40

PWR

34↗39

SPD

45↗50

EYE

52↗57

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.1	$11M	+$10M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.7	$4M	+$3M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.1M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$25M	+$21M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Royals White	120	104	16	1	0	1	7	30	4	2	2	.154	.235	.192	.427	.038	.197	25	6	.186	1	-13	-0	+0	+2	+3	-0.9
2022	19	ROK	DSL KC Glass	119	101	16	1	1	3	12	40	4	2	0	.158	.274	.277	.551	.119	.220	34	10	.232	36	-9	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
2023	20	ROK	ACL Royals	95	79	17	4	0	1	12	26	4	5	0	.215	.347	.304	.651	.089	.308	27	13	.282	74	-3	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2024	21	ROK	2 teams	154	131	23	3	1	1	13	49	8	3	3	.176	.289	.237	.526	.061	.268	32	8	.240	42	-10	-1	+0	+3	+4	-0.4
2025	22	ROK	2 teams	87	77	15	0	1	1	9	23	0	0	0	.195	.279	.260	.539	.065	.259	26	10	.245	46	-5	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	KC	94	85	18	3	1	2	8	27	1	2	0	.212	.287	.341	.628	.129	.285	29	9	.281	73	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 10%	KC	180	160	35	6	1	4	16	50	2	3	1	.219	.298	.344	.642	.125	.287	28	9	.289	80	-4	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2028	25	MLB 25%	KC	276	245	54	10	2	6	25	75	4	5	1	.220	.303	.351	.654	.131	.288	27	9	.295	84	-5	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.9
2029	26	MLB 42%	KC	343	304	67	12	2	8	31	92	5	6	1	.220	.303	.352	.655	.132	.289	27	9	.298	86	-5	+1	+0	+6	+10	1.2
2030	27	MLB 58%	KC	378	335	75	14	2	9	35	102	5	7	2	.224	.307	.358	.665	.134	.289	27	9	.299	87	-6	+1	+0	+7	+11	1.3
2031	28	MLB 68%	KC	398	353	77	14	2	9	37	108	5	7	1	.218	.301	.346	.647	.127	.288	27	9	.298	86	-6	+1	-1	+7	+11	1.3
2032	29	MLB 77%	KC	403	357	78	14	2	9	38	110	5	7	1	.218	.302	.345	.647	.126	.288	27	9	.296	84	-7	+1	-1	+7	+11	1.1
2033	30	MLB 84%	KC	403	357	77	14	2	9	38	112	5	7	1	.216	.300	.342	.642	.126	.286	28	9	.293	82	-8	+1	-2	+7	+11	1.0
2034	31	MLB 91%	KC	383	339	72	13	2	8	36	108	5	5	0	.212	.297	.333	.631	.121	.285	28	9	.289	79	-9	+1	-3	+7	+11	0.7
2035	32	MLB	KC	357	316	67	12	2	7	33	102	5	5	0	.212	.297	.329	.626	.117	.283	29	9	.284	76	-10	+1	-4	+6	+10	0.4
2036	33	MLB	KC	320	283	58	10	2	6	30	94	4	4	0	.205	.290	.318	.608	.113	.282	29	9	.279	72	-10	+1	-4	+6	+9	0.1
2037	34	MLB	KC	273	243	49	9	1	5	25	82	3	4	0	.202	.284	.309	.593	.107	.280	30	9	.272	67	-10	+1	-5	+5	+8	-0.2
2038	35	MLB	KC	219	194	39	7	1	4	20	68	3	3	0	.201	.286	.309	.595	.108	.277	31	9	.265	61	-10	+1	-6	+4	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4602	4063	853	147	25	93	425	1298	72	77	13	.210	.296	.327	.623	.117	.282	28	9	.282	74	-134	+10	-25	+82	+130	6.5
/ 162G	—			650	574	121	21	4	13	60	183	10	11	2	.211	.297	.329	.626	.118	.283	28	9	.282	74	-19	+1	-4	+12	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Royals White	120	98	19	1	0	1	12	21	4	2	2	.194	.304	.235	.539	.041	.228	18	10	.251	50	-7	-0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2022	19	ROK	DSL KC Glass	119	94	20	1	1	3	19	28	4	2	0	.213	.368	.340	.708	.128	.266	24	16	.327	108	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	20	ROK	ACL Royals	95	73	22	5	0	1	18	18	4	5	0	.301	.463	.411	.874	.110	.389	19	19	.405	168	+7	+1	—	—	+3	1.1
2024	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	72	56	8	1	0	0	10	22	6	2	1	.143	.333	.161	.494	.018	.235	31	14	.264	60	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	21	ROK	ACL Royals	82	66	21	3	1	1	12	12	2	1	2	.318	.438	.439	.877	.121	.370	15	15	.389	156	+5	-1	—	—	+2	0.7
2025	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	36	29	3	0	1	0	7	8	0	0	0	.103	.278	.172	.450	.069	.143	22	19	.231	35	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	22	ROK	ACL Royals	51	43	16	0	0	1	7	8	0	0	0	.372	.460	.442	.902	.070	.429	16	14	.403	166	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aldrin Lucas (OGILVIE)	23	35→40	34→39	45→50	57	.210/.288/.326	.115	.285	2	2	29%	8%	73	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→46	47→45	48→50	48	.209/.291/.351	.142	.259	14	9	25%	8%	81	+0.4	.205/.282/.337	.132	.267	13	9	27%	7%	73	-0.1	.223/.298/.355	.132	.277	12	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	42	44→50	49→40	49	.210/.296/.330	.120	.268	12	7	25%	9%	78	+0.2	.225/.309/.364	.139	.303	15	5	29%	8%	92	+1.2	.233/.304/.378	.146	.278	16	1	22%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	48	.209/.289/.317	.108	.281	9	6	28%	9%	70	-0.3	.221/.304/.311	.090	.312	8	6	29%	9%	75	-0.0	.236/.329/.308	.072	.330	7	6	28%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	44→55	47→45	42	.205/.269/.327	.122	.280	11	10	30%	7%	65	-0.7	.196/.267/.342	.146	.271	17	7	33%	8%	69	-0.4	.206/.283/.412	.206	.265	29	1	33%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→43	45→50	49→40	44	.228/.280/.350	.122	.284	12	8	24%	6%	74	-0.1	.216/.283/.365	.149	.274	20	4	28%	8%	81	+0.4	.212/.282/.359	.148	.263	20	2	27%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Aaron McKeithan 2023 · A	23	45	40	45→40	44	.215/.290/.307	.093	.291	8	4	28%	7%	69	-0.4	.217/.295/.297	.080	.272	8	4	22%	7%	69	-0.4	.202/.287/.263	.061	.244	8	1	19%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	43→39	45→50	48→45	53	.210/.302/.335	.125	.267	11	11	25%	11%	81	+0.4	.198/.288/.339	.141	.280	14	8	32%	10%	76	+0.1	.175/.275/.323	.148	.242	17	6	33%	11%	64	-0.5
✕Chris Denove 2006 · A	23	44	40	47→40	46	.212/.286/.304	.092	.282	7	6	26%	8%	66	-0.6	.200/.260/.271	.071	.268	4	4	25%	7%	46	-2.0	.245/.301/.340	.096	.298	7	3	19%	6%	79	+0.1
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	39→30	48→40	49	.206/.285/.289	.084	.266	7	7	24%	9%	62	-0.9	.224/.308/.287	.063	.307	4	5	26%	8%	71	-0.3	.233/.323/.283	.051	.326	2	2	26%	8%	73	-0.0
✕Tyler Saladino 2012 · A	23	44→46	46→45	45→55	42	.217/.280/.356	.139	.292	13	7	29%	7%	76	+0.1	.216/.285/.317	.101	.284	8	20	25%	8%	68	-0.5	.253/.299/.369	.116	.300	11	25	19%	5%	84	+0.4
✕Andrew Susac 2013 · A	23	42→39	43→50	46→30	45	.207/.280/.320	.113	.292	11	4	31%	8%	67	-0.5	.217/.291/.360	.143	.291	16	3	29%	9%	82	+0.5	.217/.295/.373	.156	.282	19	1	29%	9%	85	+0.3
✕Luis Santana 2023 · A	24	44	45	48→50	42	.218/.280/.341	.124	.281	13	11	27%	6%	73	-0.1	.212/.267/.334	.122	.269	14	7	26%	5%	66	-0.6	.195/.248/.310	.116	.241	15	5	25%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	45→48	42→50	51→50	43	.218/.284/.328	.110	.300	9	11	29%	7%	71	-0.3	.204/.275/.332	.128	.317	14	12	38%	7%	69	-0.4	.220/.308/.345	.126	.328	13	10	34%	8%	84	+0.4
✕Pedro Pagés 2022 · A	23	44→43	43→50	43→40	42	.213/.279/.319	.107	.302	11	5	32%	7%	66	-0.6	.210/.275/.334	.124	.293	14	4	31%	8%	69	-0.4	.224/.283/.362	.138	.282	18	2	26%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Bryan Holaday 2011 · A	23	43	42→45	47→40	42	.204/.284/.305	.101	.299	9	6	33%	8%	66	-0.6	.210/.264/.299	.089	.275	7	6	25%	6%	54	-1.4	.217/.286/.341	.124	.252	13	2	19%	7%	71	-0.1
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2023 · A	23	47→41	42→45	45→40	45	.223/.293/.329	.106	.306	9	4	29%	8%	75	-0.0	.215/.274/.306	.091	.279	8	5	25%	6%	61	-1.0	.209/.263/.277	.067	.260	6	3	21%	5%	44	-0.6
●Eduardo Valencia 2023 · A	23	44→54	42→50	49→30	45	.215/.282/.315	.100	.276	10	5	25%	7%	67	-0.5	.222/.280/.345	.123	.283	14	4	26%	7%	73	-0.1	.250/.305/.416	.166	.304	22	0	25%	6%	100	+1.0
✕Paul Vasquez 2008 · A	23	47	43→45	52→30	39	.231/.271/.342	.111	.307	10	9	28%	5%	68	-0.5	.234/.273/.339	.105	.293	8	5	22%	3%	68	-0.5	.235/.269/.339	.104	.292	8	2	22%	2%	63	-0.3
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	47→49	40→45	48→45	51	.222/.330/.318	.096	.290	7	9	24%	9%	90	+1.0	.229/.317/.341	.112	.289	10	7	23%	7%	89	+1.0	.230/.322/.343	.112	.289	11	5	22%	7%	88	+0.5
✕P.J. Higgins 2016 · A	23	44→54	41→45	54→40	42	.215/.265/.321	.106	.286	8	8	27%	6%	59	-1.1	.230/.300/.300	.070	.287	3	4	19%	8%	69	-0.4	.241/.304/.366	.126	.307	13	3	24%	8%	87	+0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)