Alex Ramírez
RF Knoxville Smokies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AANYM | 542 | .210/.291/.299 | 5 | 40 | 53 | — | .205/.267/.290 |
| 2025 | 22 | AANYM | 191 | .222/.304/.298 | 2 | 22 | 57 | — | .222/.283/.295 |
| 2026 | 23 | AACHC | 562 | .277/.327/.420 | 15 | 46 | 82 | — | .256/.293/.377 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCHC | 4 | .222/.270/.325 | 0 | 0 | 66 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBCHC | 81 | .225/.274/.333 | 1 | 2 | 69 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 334 | 302 | 78 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 104 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 258 | 327 | 384 | 711 | 126 | 376 | 31 | 7 | 320 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 246 | 227 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 278 | 331 | 427 | 758 | 150 | 343 | 22 | 7 | 336 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 306 | 271 | 77 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 28 | 68 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 284 | 362 | 443 | 805 | 159 | 357 | 22 | 9 | 357 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 521 | 457 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 56 | 114 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 221 | 311 | 317 | 628 | 96 | 277 | 22 | 11 | 289 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 542 | 481 | 101 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 55 | 123 | 1 | 40 | 8 | 210 | 291 | 299 | 591 | 89 | 270 | 23 | 10 | 271 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 191 | 171 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 50 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 222 | 304 | 298 | 602 | 76 | 303 | 26 | 10 | 280 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 562 | 517 | 143 | 27 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 99 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 277 | 327 | 420 | 747 | 143 | 313 | 18 | 6 | 330 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 334 | 309 | 62 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 150 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 201 | 258 | 288 | 546 | 87 | 367 | 45 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 246 | 233 | 53 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 71 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 227 | 265 | 356 | 622 | 129 | 295 | 29 | 4 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 306 | 280 | 65 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 96 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 232 | 293 | 364 | 657 | 132 | 329 | 31 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 521 | 478 | 86 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 147 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 180 | 243 | 253 | 496 | 73 | 243 | 28 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 542 | 497 | 102 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 144 | 1 | 40 | 8 | 205 | 267 | 290 | 557 | 85 | 271 | 27 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 191 | 176 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 222 | 283 | 295 | 578 | 74 | 320 | 31 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 562 | 528 | 135 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 121 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 256 | 293 | 377 | 670 | 121 | 300 | 22 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 334 | 309 | 62 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 150 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 201 | 258 | 288 | 546 | 87 | 376 | 45 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 334 | 302 | 78 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 104 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 258 | 327 | 384 | 711 | 126 | 376 | 31 | 7 | 320 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 552 | 513 | 118 | 23 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 167 | 7 | 21 | 16 | 230 | 281 | 361 | 641 | 131 | 319 | 30 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 552 | 498 | 140 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 44 | 122 | 7 | 21 | 16 | 281 | 348 | 436 | 784 | 155 | 351 | 22 | 8 | 347 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 521 | 478 | 86 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 147 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 180 | 243 | 253 | 496 | 73 | 244 | 28 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 521 | 457 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 56 | 114 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 221 | 311 | 317 | 628 | 96 | 277 | 22 | 11 | 289 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 542 | 497 | 102 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 144 | 1 | 40 | 8 | 205 | 267 | 290 | 557 | 85 | 276 | 27 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 542 | 481 | 101 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 55 | 123 | 1 | 40 | 8 | 210 | 291 | 299 | 591 | 89 | 270 | 23 | 10 | 271 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 191 | 176 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 222 | 283 | 295 | 578 | 74 | 325 | 31 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 191 | 171 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 50 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 222 | 304 | 298 | 602 | 76 | 303 | 26 | 10 | 280 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 562 | 528 | 135 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 121 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 256 | 293 | 377 | 670 | 121 | 307 | 22 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | Knoxville Smokies | — | 562 | 517 | 143 | 27 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 99 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 277 | 327 | 420 | 747 | 143 | 313 | 18 | 6 | 330 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 334 | 307 | 62 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 150 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 202 | 258 | 290 | 548 | 88 | 367 | 45 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 552 | 511 | 118 | 23 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 167 | 7 | 21 | 16 | 231 | 281 | 362 | 643 | 131 | 314 | 30 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 521 | 476 | 86 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 147 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 181 | 243 | 254 | 497 | 74 | 243 | 28 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 542 | 495 | 102 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 144 | 1 | 40 | 8 | 206 | 267 | 291 | 558 | 85 | 271 | 27 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 191 | 174 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 224 | 283 | 299 | 582 | 75 | 320 | 31 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 562 | 529 | 135 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 121 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 255 | 293 | 376 | 669 | 121 | 300 | 22 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 542 | 495 | 102 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 144 | 1 | 40 | 8 | 206 | 267 | 291 | 558 | 85 | 271 | 27 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 191 | 174 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 224 | 283 | 299 | 582 | 75 | 320 | 31 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 562 | 529 | 135 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 121 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 255 | 293 | 376 | 669 | 121 | 300 | 22 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | CHC | 2% | 380 | 354 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 88 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 221 | 269 | 324 | 593 | 103 | 274 | 23 | 6 | 266 | 66 | -15 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | CHC | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 270 | 325 | 595 | 103 | 276 | 25 | 0 | 267 | 66 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | CHC | 31% | 260 | 242 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 60 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 223 | 273 | 332 | 604 | 109 | 275 | 23 | 6 | 271 | 69 | -9 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +6 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | CHC | 31% | 81 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 274 | 333 | 607 | 108 | 277 | 23 | 6 | 272 | 69 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 81 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 259 | 289 | 549 | 79 | 268 | 23 | 6 | 272 | 61 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 610 | 128 | 24 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 152 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 210 | 258 | 289 | 547 | 79 | 267 | 23 | 6 | 272 | 61 | -24 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3172 | 2938 | 640 | 122 | 17 | 47 | 188 | 898 | 26 | 182 | 56 | 218 | 271 | 319 | 590 | 101 | 295 | 28 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -18 | +2 | +0 | -5 | +10 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 184 | 5 | 37 | 11 | 218 | 271 | 319 | 590 | 101 | 294 | 28 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -25 | +2 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 562 PAwOBA .324 → .290 (−34)K% 17.6% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.62% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 4.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×1.027 | 23.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.024 | ×1.027 | 6.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.024 | ×1.027 | 0.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.95% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .324 → .290; ISO .143 → .124; BABIP .313 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 191 PAwOBA .273 → .252 (−20)K% 26.2% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.18% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.95% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.97% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×1.047 | ×1.042 | 25.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.79% | ÷0.941 | ×0.860 | ×1.047 | ×1.042 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.911 | ×0.950 | ×1.047 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.65% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.36% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .273 → .252; ISO .076 → .067; BABIP .303 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 542 PAwOBA .266 → .246 (−19)K% 22.7% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.69% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.15% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 7.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.18% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.83% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.001 | ×1.050 | 20.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | ×1.001 | ×1.050 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | ×1.001 | ×1.050 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.40% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.37% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .266 → .246; ISO .089 → .085; BABIP .270 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 521 PAwOBA .283 → .224 (−59)K% 21.9% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.88% | ÷1.018 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.75% | ÷0.970 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.99% | ÷0.973 | ×0.870 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 19.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.058 | ×0.780 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.29% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 0.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.054 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 1.78% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .283 → .224; ISO .096 → .076; BABIP .277 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 306 PAwOBA .350 → .285 (−64)K% 22.2% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.15% | ÷1.081 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.62% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.045 | 23.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.40% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.045 | 5.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.96% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.045 | 3.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.96% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.60% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 110, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 92, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .350 → .285; ISO .159 → .136; BABIP .357 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 246 PAwOBA .328 → .261 (−67)K% 22.0% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.95% | ÷0.995 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.50% | ÷1.020 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.050 | 4.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.050 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.12% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×0.997 | ×1.050 | 20.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.83% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | ×0.997 | ×1.050 | 7.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.060 | ×0.850 | ×0.997 | ×1.050 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.89% | ÷0.925 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 2.89% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 112, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .328 → .261; ISO .150 → .125; BABIP .343 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASt. Lucie Mets · 334 PAwOBA .313 → .242 (−71)K% 31.1% → 44.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.14% | ÷0.945 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.89% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.40% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.028 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 26.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 7.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.137 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 1.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.53% | ÷0.988 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 2.15% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 127, K 89, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .313 → .242; ISO .126 → .093; BABIP .376 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).