Christian Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 223 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%20.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	26	23	125	536	125	40	10	88%	4.8	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.4%	3.38	4.04	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	26	23	125	536	125	40	10	88%	4.8	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.4%	3.38	4.04	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	BAL	19	18	95	396	100	28	5	95%	5.0	25.3%	7.1%	18.2%	1.3%	2.57	2.56	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	BAL	7	5	30	140	25	12	5	71%	4.3	17.9%	8.6%	9.3%	3.6%	5.93	4.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	124	523	110	45	16	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.44	4.41	+0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	124	523	112	44	16	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.40	4.38	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	122	515	110	44	16	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.40	4.41	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	118	499	106	43	16	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.1%	4.45	4.49	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	113	477	100	42	16	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.3%	4.55	4.62	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	106	448	93	41	16	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.5%	4.70	4.80	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	99	418	85	40	15	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.88	5.00	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	53	224	47	19	7	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	3.1%	4.51	4.48	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	82	346	74	29	11	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.5%	12.9%	3.1%	4.47	4.45	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	94	397	85	34	13	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.5%	12.9%	3.2%	4.47	4.48	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	99	418	89	36	14	100%	6.2	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.3%	4.53	4.57	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	99	418	88	37	14	100%	6.2	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.4%	4.63	4.70	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	95	401	83	37	15	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.6%	4.79	4.89	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	91	384	78	37	15	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.9%	4.97	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	614	2591	545	229	88	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.9%	12.2%	3.4%	4.63	4.30	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	178	75	29	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.9%	12.2%	3.4%	4.63	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		26	23	125	536	93	47	13	88%	4.8	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.4%	3.38	4.04	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	37	200	858	149	75	20	88%	4.8	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.4%	3.38	4.04	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	20.5%	8.9%	3.0%	—	4.40	21.3%	12.8%	370	-0.11	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	79
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	77
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	77
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	77
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	77
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	77
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	77
Josh Roberson R 2019 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	17.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.298	5.37	21.7%	5.5%	60	+1.70	3.17	229	77
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	76
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	76
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	76
Chase Whitley R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	26	SP	3.53	18.1%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	3.52	18.5%	12.0%	123	-0.01	3.09	159	76
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	75
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	75
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	74
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	74
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	103	21.0%	8.8%	1.23	4.53
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45