Christian Rodriguez

P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 223 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#753ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	23	125	3.38	3.10	23.3%	7.5%	—	K 17.4% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.04
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	—	—	0	4.66	4.66	18.1%	8.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBBAL	7	7	40	4.65	4.63	19.1%	8.6%	0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBAL	9	9	53	4.63	4.64	19.3%	8.6%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDylan Burns (age 25) · Enrique Gonzalez (age 24) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%18.1%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP88

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	125	536	125	40	10	88%	4.8	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.4%	3.38	4.04	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	125	536	125	40	10	88%	4.8	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.4%	3.38	4.04	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	125	536	125	40	10	88%	4.8	23.3%	7.5%	15.9%	1.9%	3.38	3.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.1%	8.8%	9.3%	2.9%	4.66	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	93	392	75	34	11	100%	6.2	19.1%	8.6%	10.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.56	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	84	356	69	31	11	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.6%	10.7%	3.0%	4.56	4.57	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	78	331	64	29	10	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	3.1%	4.60	4.64	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	72	305	58	27	10	100%	6.0	19.2%	8.9%	10.2%	3.2%	4.69	4.76	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	65	276	52	25	9	100%	5.9	18.8%	9.2%	9.6%	3.4%	4.84	4.94	+0.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	58	245	45	23	9	100%	5.8	18.4%	9.6%	8.8%	3.6%	5.02	5.14	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	40	169	32	15	5	100%	5.7	19.1%	8.6%	10.5%	3.0%	4.65	4.63	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	53	224	43	19	7	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.6%	10.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.64	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	59	249	48	22	8	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	3.2%	4.68	4.72	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	59	249	48	22	8	100%	5.9	19.2%	8.9%	10.2%	3.4%	4.77	4.84	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	56	236	44	22	8	100%	6.2	18.8%	9.2%	9.6%	3.6%	4.92	5.02	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	51	215	40	21	8	100%	6.4	18.4%	9.6%	8.8%	3.8%	5.11	5.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	318	1341	255	120	45	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.0%	10.1%	3.4%	4.80	4.47	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	161	76	28	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.0%	10.1%	3.4%	4.80	4.47	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		26	23	125	536	93	47	13	88%	4.8	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.4%	3.38	4.04	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	37	200	858	149	75	20	88%	4.8	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.4%	3.38	4.04	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 95 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.48 (+0.92)K% 25.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.25%	—	×0.740	18.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.07%	—	×1.180	8.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.64%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 30 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.64 (+1.00)K% 17.9% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.86%	—	×0.770	13.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×1.150	9.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.46%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	18.1%	8.8%	2.9%	—	4.59	19.3%	10.6%	256	-0.07	—	—	—
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	89
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	86
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	86
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	85
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	85
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	85
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	85
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	84
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	83
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	83
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	83
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	83
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	83
Jayden Murray R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP	4.50	16.9%	8.6%	3.2%	.258	4.60	19.1%	7.9%	105	+0.10	3.74	365	82
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	82
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	82
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	82
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	82
Jake McCasland R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP	4.03	15.9%	7.5%	2.4%	.355	4.34	12.8%	3.3%	106	+0.31	3.07	367	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	77	18.9%	8.9%	1.21	4.69
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Bob Humphreys ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.22*
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Bryan Hickerson ('95)	2.0	81	15.9%	8.1%	1.16	4.72
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*
Jorge López ('25)	2.8	70	19.8%	8.8%	1.36	5.31