Aaron Nixon
P
Hudson Valley Renegades
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 210 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123113vR 104
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
K%22.3%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 39 | 0 | 62 | 284 | 63 | 47 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.4% | 19.5% | -3.1% | 1.4% | 5.40 | 4.97 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 39 | 0 | 62 | 284 | 63 | 47 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.2% | 16.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 5.40 | 3.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 13 | 0 | 13 | 68 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 16.9% | -2.2% | 1.8% | 7.62 | 5.01 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.57 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 56 | 250 | 54 | 30 | 6 | — | — | 21.4% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 5.27 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.19 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 41 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 39 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 0 | 77 | 324 | 73 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.19 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 91 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 0 | 75 | 352 | 57 | 67 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.1% | 19.0% | -2.9% | 1.5% | 5.79 | 4.98 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 139 | 0 | 200 | 943 | 152 | 179 | 14 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.1% | 19.0% | -2.9% | 1.5% | 5.79 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Nixon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.56 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 127 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 93 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 92 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 90 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 89 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 89 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.88 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 167 | +0.74 | 3.34 | 334 | 88 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 88 |
| Gavin Hollowell R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.35 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .273 | 3.78 | 28.1% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.57 | 2.30 | 208 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 88 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 88 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .286 | 6.43 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 24 | +2.19 | 4.09 | 183 | 88 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 87 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 87 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.66 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 139 | +0.40 | 3.45 | 289 | 87 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.81 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.69 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.88 | 3.16 | 253 | 87 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 87 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 86 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 86 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .305 | 7.93 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.91 | 3.54 | 153 | 86 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.85 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .330 | 4.04 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 96 | +0.19 | 2.54 | 214 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 43 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 1.14 | 4.55 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |