Aaron Nixon — OGILVIE

Aaron Nixon P Greenville Drive

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%19.7%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%2.8%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	39	0	62	284	63	47	3	0%	1.6	16.4%	19.5%	-3.1%	1.4%	5.40	4.96	—
2024	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	39	0	62	284	63	47	3	0%	1.6	16.4%	19.5%	-3.1%	1.4%	5.40	4.96	—
2024	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	39	0	62	284	63	47	3	0%	1.6	22.2%	16.5%	5.6%	1.1%	5.40	3.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	23	0	25	133	28	15	2	0%	1.1	16.6%	13.8%	2.8%	1.0%	8.28	3.99	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	23	0	25	133	28	15	2	0%	1.1	16.6%	13.8%	2.8%	1.0%	8.28	3.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	BOS	22	0	24	125	27	15	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.0%	9.6%	0.8%	7.12	3.24	—
2026	25	AA RAW	BOS	1	0	1	8	1	0	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	0.0%	12.5%	12.5%	36.00	8.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BOS	53	0	56	234	48	38	7	0%	1.0	20.4%	16.1%	4.3%	2.9%	5.40	5.38	-0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	52	0	55	231	48	36	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	15.7%	5.0%	2.9%	5.33	5.34	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	BOS	23	0	24	101	21	16	3	0%	1.0	20.4%	16.1%	4.3%	2.9%	5.40	5.38	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	32	0	34	144	30	23	4	0%	1.1	20.6%	15.7%	5.0%	2.9%	5.33	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	58	246	51	39	7	0%	1.0	20.6%	15.9%	4.7%	2.9%	5.36	4.98	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	134	24	0%	1.1	20.6%	15.9%	4.7%	2.9%	5.36	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		62	0	87	417	69	74	5	0%	1.4	16.5%	17.7%	-1.2%	1.3%	6.23	4.65	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	0	200	962	159	170	12	0%	1.4	16.5%	17.7%	-1.2%	1.3%	6.23	4.65	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Nixon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	19.7%	16.9%	2.9%	—	5.36	20.5%	4.6%	110	-0.18	—	—	—
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	90
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	87
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	87
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	87
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	87
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	87
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	85
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	84
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	84
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	84
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	84
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	84
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	84
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	83
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	51	20.3%	16.2%	1.13	5.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48