Colby Halter
2B Las Vegas Aviators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+OAK | 277 | .258/.371/.365 | 3 | 12 | 59 | — | .197/.287/.283 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AAOAK | 513 | .260/.356/.408 | 8 | 28 | 67 | — | .214/.285/.325 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/AAOAK | 385 | .233/.351/.355 | 9 | 23 | 67 | — | .204/.293/.296 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 25 | MLBOAK | 21 | .182/.264/.277 | 0 | 1 | 51 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 26 | MLBOAK | 88 | .186/.268/.288 | 1 | 3 | 55 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 92 | 81 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 198 | 293 | 259 | 553 | 62 | 320 | 34 | 12 | 261 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 39 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 455 | 538 | 576 | 1.114 | 121 | 536 | 13 | 13 | 495 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 277 | 233 | 60 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 81 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 258 | 371 | 365 | 736 | 107 | 377 | 29 | 14 | 337 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 133 | 118 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 203 | 277 | 364 | 641 | 161 | 292 | 35 | 7 | 281 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 380 | 321 | 90 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 50 | 102 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 280 | 384 | 424 | 808 | 143 | 392 | 27 | 13 | 360 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 216 | 179 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 69 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 229 | 343 | 318 | 661 | 89 | 336 | 32 | 12 | 301 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 169 | 139 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 47 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 237 | 361 | 403 | 764 | 165 | 315 | 28 | 15 | 341 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 92 | 84 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 143 | 217 | 190 | 408 | 48 | 284 | 46 | 9 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 39 | 35 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 343 | 410 | 429 | 839 | 86 | 418 | 18 | 8 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 277 | 244 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 106 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 197 | 287 | 283 | 570 | 86 | 320 | 38 | 10 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 133 | 120 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 54 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 167 | 231 | 292 | 522 | 125 | 251 | 41 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 380 | 339 | 78 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 126 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 230 | 304 | 336 | 640 | 106 | 341 | 33 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 216 | 187 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 83 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 203 | 290 | 267 | 558 | 64 | 322 | 38 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 169 | 147 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 57 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 204 | 295 | 333 | 629 | 129 | 283 | 34 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 131 | 119 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 275 | 261 | 535 | 59 | 343 | 37 | 8 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 131 | 114 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 36 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 272 | 366 | 351 | 717 | 79 | 397 | 27 | 12 | 331 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 277 | 244 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 106 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 197 | 287 | 283 | 570 | 86 | 328 | 38 | 10 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 277 | 233 | 60 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 81 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 258 | 371 | 365 | 736 | 107 | 377 | 29 | 14 | 337 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 513 | 459 | 98 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 180 | 7 | 28 | 4 | 214 | 285 | 325 | 610 | 111 | 330 | 35 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 513 | 439 | 114 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 59 | 148 | 7 | 28 | 4 | 260 | 356 | 408 | 764 | 148 | 367 | 29 | 12 | 339 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 334 | 69 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 140 | 6 | 23 | 4 | 207 | 295 | 302 | 598 | 96 | 321 | 36 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 385 | 318 | 74 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 52 | 116 | 6 | 23 | 4 | 233 | 351 | 355 | 706 | 123 | 327 | 30 | 14 | 319 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 131 | 118 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 203 | 275 | 263 | 538 | 59 | 324 | 37 | 8 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 277 | 244 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 106 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 197 | 287 | 283 | 570 | 86 | 320 | 38 | 10 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 513 | 462 | 98 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 180 | 7 | 28 | 4 | 212 | 285 | 323 | 608 | 110 | 318 | 35 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 340 | 69 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 140 | 6 | 23 | 4 | 203 | 295 | 297 | 592 | 94 | 305 | 36 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 277 | 244 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 106 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 197 | 287 | 283 | 570 | 86 | 320 | 38 | 10 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 513 | 462 | 98 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 180 | 7 | 28 | 4 | 212 | 285 | 323 | 608 | 110 | 318 | 35 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 340 | 69 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 140 | 6 | 23 | 4 | 203 | 295 | 297 | 592 | 94 | 305 | 36 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 10% | 380 | 339 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 134 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 177 | 259 | 269 | 529 | 92 | 269 | 35 | 9 | 244 | 51 | -22 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | OAK | 10% | 21 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 264 | 277 | 541 | 95 | 277 | 33 | 10 | 249 | 51 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 35% | 252 | 225 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 87 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 181 | 263 | 279 | 542 | 98 | 270 | 35 | 9 | 250 | 55 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 35% | 88 | 79 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 268 | 288 | 555 | 101 | 279 | 34 | 9 | 255 | 55 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 88 | 79 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 273 | 291 | 564 | 101 | 292 | 34 | 9 | 255 | 61 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 110 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 59 | 222 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 188 | 271 | 286 | 557 | 98 | 290 | 34 | 9 | 255 | 61 | -35 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1768 | 1568 | 312 | 56 | 12 | 23 | 153 | 636 | 24 | 85 | 21 | 199 | 280 | 294 | 574 | 95 | 312 | 36 | 9 | 258 | 61 | -26 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 114 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 56 | 234 | 9 | 31 | 8 | 198 | 279 | 290 | 569 | 92 | 312 | 36 | 9 | 258 | 61 | -36 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 216 PAwOBA .300 → .258 (−42)K% 31.9% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.94% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.020 | ×1.033 | 29.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.033 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.020 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.63% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .300 → .258; ISO .089 → .068; BABIP .336 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 169 PAwOBA .335 → .278 (−57)K% 27.8% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 21.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 5.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.34% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .335 → .278; ISO .165 → .138; BABIP .315 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 380 PAwOBA .353 → .283 (−70)K% 26.8% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.84% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.89% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.40% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 25.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.68% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 6.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 2.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.28% | ÷1.043 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.77% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 102, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .353 → .283; ISO .143 → .111; BABIP .392 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 133 PAwOBA .280 → .223 (−57)K% 34.6% → 40.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.59% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.77% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.26% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.06% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 15.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 2.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.183 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.58% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .280 → .223; ISO .161 → .118; BABIP .292 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 277 PAwOBA .330 → .255 (−75)K% 29.2% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.24% | ÷0.974 | ×1.270 | — | — | 38.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.36% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.63% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 23.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.21% | ÷0.992 | ×0.810 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 7.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.97% | ÷0.867 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .330 → .255; ISO .107 → .083; BABIP .377 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 92 PAwOBA .255 → .186 (−69)K% 33.7% → 45.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.70% | ÷0.938 | ×1.270 | — | — | 45.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.96% | ÷1.036 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 21.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.209 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .255 → .186; ISO .062 → .042; BABIP .320 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Athletics · 39 PAwOBA .483 → .357 (−126)K% 12.8% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.82% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.82% | ÷1.030 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 7.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 39.29% | ÷0.974 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 32.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.051 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 9.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .483 → .357; ISO .121 → .082; BABIP .536 → .418. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).