Max Carlson — OGILVIE

Max Carlson P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.83

FIP3.83

K%24.0%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%17.6%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	69	298	86	21	1	0%	2.1	22.7%	7.5%	15.2%	0.6%	2.73	2.44	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	69	298	86	21	1	0%	2.1	22.7%	7.5%	15.2%	0.6%	2.73	2.44	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	69	298	86	21	1	0%	2.1	28.9%	7.0%	21.8%	0.3%	2.73	1.72	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	11	2	35	151	49	6	4	18%	3.2	25.0%	4.6%	20.4%	3.0%	4.08	3.20	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	11	2	35	151	49	6	4	18%	3.2	25.0%	4.6%	20.4%	3.0%	4.08	3.20	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	11	2	35	151	49	6	4	18%	3.2	32.5%	4.0%	28.5%	2.6%	4.08	2.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	36	2	82	339	96	18	10	6%	2.3	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	3.7%	4.37	3.92	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	36	2	82	339	96	18	10	6%	2.3	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	3.7%	4.37	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	BOS	35	2	79	325	94	18	10	6%	2.3	28.9%	5.5%	23.4%	3.1%	4.31	3.05	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	BOS	1	0	3	14	2	0	0	0%	3.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	6.00	1.89	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BOS	78	0	82	345	83	22	10	0%	1.0	24.1%	6.4%	17.8%	2.9%	3.84	3.81	+0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	78	0	82	345	83	22	10	0%	1.0	24.2%	6.5%	17.7%	2.9%	3.85	3.82	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	77	0	80	339	82	22	10	0%	1.0	24.1%	6.6%	17.5%	2.9%	3.88	3.88	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	74	0	78	329	85	20	10	0%	1.1	25.9%	6.0%	19.9%	3.0%	3.78	3.71	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	71	0	74	315	81	20	10	0%	1.0	25.7%	6.2%	19.4%	3.2%	3.82	3.84	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	67	0	70	296	75	19	10	0%	1.0	25.3%	6.5%	18.8%	3.4%	3.94	4.02	+0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	BOS	34	0	36	152	37	10	4	0%	1.1	24.1%	6.4%	17.8%	2.8%	3.80	3.77	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	52	0	55	232	56	15	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	6.5%	17.7%	2.8%	3.81	3.78	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	59	0	62	262	63	17	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	6.6%	17.5%	2.8%	3.84	3.84	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	63	0	66	279	72	17	8	0%	1.0	25.9%	6.0%	19.9%	2.9%	3.74	3.67	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	62	0	65	274	70	17	8	0%	1.0	25.7%	6.2%	19.4%	3.1%	3.78	3.80	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	60	0	63	266	67	17	9	0%	1.1	25.3%	6.5%	18.8%	3.3%	3.89	3.97	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		330	0	347	1464	365	93	44	0%	1.1	25.0%	6.3%	18.6%	3.0%	3.81	3.43	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	54	25	0%	1.1	25.0%	6.3%	18.6%	3.0%	3.81	3.43	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		81	4	188	791	187	50	19	5%	2.3	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	2.4%	3.69	3.20	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	4	200	841	199	53	20	5%	2.3	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	2.4%	3.69	3.20	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Carlson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.83	24.0%	6.4%	2.9%	—	3.84	24.1%	17.7%	244	+0.01	—	—	—
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	84
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	83
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	83
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	83
Casey Cobb R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	21.8%	6.2%	2.6%	.261	5.59	17.2%	8.3%	118	+2.11	3.48	191	82
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	81
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	81
Chandler Shepherd R 2017 · 3.02 FIP	24	SU	3.02	23.8%	6.7%	2.0%	.333	4.38	17.8%	10.5%	251	+1.36	3.02	546	80
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	80
Travis Hissong R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	25	SU	3.01	23.6%	4.9%	2.3%	.256	4.17	20.3%	6.8%	50	+1.16	3.01	122	80
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	80
Bear Bellomy R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	24	SU	4.57	23.1%	6.9%	4.6%	.274	5.69	15.0%	8.2%	72	+1.12	4.57	139	79
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	79
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	79
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	79
Sauryn Lao R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	23	SU	3.31	23.8%	5.2%	2.9%	.367	3.28	20.0%	12.9%	128	-0.03	3.11	182	79
Dakota Donovan R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	24	SU	3.15	22.2%	8.4%	1.6%	.310	3.55	20.3%	8.9%	95	+0.40	3.15	153	79
Ryan Halstead R 2016 · 3.12 FIP	24	SU	3.12	20.7%	4.8%	2.1%	.331	3.54	17.5%	11.0%	168	+0.42	3.12	222	78
Ian Koenig R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	22	SU	3.69	20.0%	6.6%	2.6%	.310	5.39	15.1%	7.5%	284	+1.70	3.69	303	78
Cristofer Ogando R 2018 · 3.23 FIP	24	SU	3.23	22.1%	8.7%	1.6%	.157	4.76	24.3%	10.2%	101	+1.53	3.23	179	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	70	24.8%	6.4%	1.17	3.85
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70