Max Carlson
P
Portland Sea Dogs
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93
ERA4.05
FIP4.05
K%23.6%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%15.6%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -2.53 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 69 | 298 | 86 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 15.2% | 0.6% | 2.73 | 2.46 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 69 | 298 | 86 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 28.9% | 7.0% | 21.8% | 0.3% | 2.73 | 1.72 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 11 | 2 | 35 | 151 | 49 | 6 | 4 | 18% | 3.2 | 25.0% | 4.6% | 20.4% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 3.04 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 11 | 2 | 35 | 151 | 49 | 6 | 4 | 18% | 3.2 | 32.5% | 4.0% | 28.5% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 2.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 24 | 1 | 53 | 227 | 58 | 12 | 8 | 4% | 2.2 | 20.7% | 5.8% | 14.9% | 4.2% | 5.57 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 26 | 108 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 79 | 335 | 83 | 21 | 11 | — | — | 24.9% | 6.2% | 18.8% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 4.29 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.6% | 8.0% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.67 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.02 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 3.64 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 68 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 69 | 3 | 159 | 679 | 154 | 43 | 15 | 4% | 2.3 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 16.5% | 2.3% | 3.96 | 3.22 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 4 | 200 | 854 | 194 | 53 | 19 | 4% | 2.3 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 16.5% | 2.3% | 3.96 | 3.22 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Max Carlson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.02 | 24.0% | 16.0% | 26 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 86 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 84 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 84 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 84 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 83 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 83 |
| Bear Bellomy R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 23.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% | .274 | 5.47 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 72 | +1.31 | 4.16 | 139 | 83 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 82 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 82 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 82 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 82 |
| Nick Merkel R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .284 | 3.25 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 125 | -0.65 | 3.08 | 201 | 82 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 82 |
| Cristofer Ogando R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.23 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.6% | .157 | 4.72 | 24.3% | 10.2% | 101 | +1.49 | 3.23 | 179 | 82 |
| Casey Cobb R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.72 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +1.99 | 3.73 | 191 | 81 |
| Jacob Bodner R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.16 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 124 | 81 |
| Brian Hunter R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.18 | 24.5% | 10.1% | 1.6% | .245 | 3.31 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 41 | +0.13 | 2.99 | 112 | 81 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 81 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 81 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 23.8% | 8.0% | 1.09 | 4.04 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Sam Hentges ('24) | 4 | 52 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 0.78 | 4.18 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |