Sauryn Lao — OGILVIE

Sauryn Lao P Rochester Red Wings

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 182 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.03

FIP4.03

K%20.4%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

SL+1.4 (48%)

CH (7%)

SI (15%)

FB-3.4 (45%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	1	57	238	73	10	6	3%	1.7	23.8%	5.2%	18.6%	2.8%	3.79	3.31	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	1	57	238	73	10	6	3%	1.7	23.8%	5.2%	18.6%	2.8%	3.79	3.31	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	1	57	238	73	10	6	3%	1.7	30.7%	4.2%	26.5%	2.5%	3.79	2.43	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	228	54	20	2	0%	1.3	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	1.0%	3.74	3.11	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	228	54	20	2	0%	1.3	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	1.0%	3.74	3.11	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	53	228	54	20	2	0%	1.3	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	0.9%	3.74	2.68	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	19	86	353	84	23	8	58%	2.6	20.5%	6.2%	14.3%	2.3%	3.26	3.40	+1.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	19	86	353	84	23	8	58%	2.6	20.5%	6.2%	14.3%	2.3%	3.26	3.40	+1.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	19	86	353	84	23	8	58%	2.6	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	2.3%	3.26	3.16	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	0	11	49	9	2	2	0%	1.4	18.4%	4.1%	14.3%	4.1%	4.91	4.37	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	WSH	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	2.5%	4.03	4.03	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	72	0	76	320	66	23	8	0%	1.1	20.7%	7.2%	13.5%	2.6%	4.08	4.10	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	70	0	74	311	65	23	9	0%	1.1	20.8%	7.5%	13.2%	2.8%	4.16	4.20	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	67	0	70	297	61	23	9	0%	1.0	20.7%	7.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.27	4.34	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	63	0	66	279	57	23	9	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	3.1%	4.42	4.51	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	30	0	32	135	28	10	4	0%	1.1	20.7%	7.2%	13.5%	2.6%	4.08	4.10	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	44	0	46	194	40	15	5	0%	1.0	20.8%	7.5%	13.2%	2.8%	4.16	4.20	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	49	0	51	215	44	17	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	7.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.27	4.34	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	50	0	53	224	46	18	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	3.1%	4.42	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		182	0	193	819	168	62	24	0%	1.1	20.5%	7.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.29	3.95	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	847	174	64	25	0%	1.1	20.5%	7.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.29	3.95	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		107	20	196	819	173	54	17	19%	1.8	21.1%	6.6%	14.6%	2.1%	3.54	3.29	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	20	200	837	177	55	17	19%	1.8	21.1%	6.6%	14.6%	2.1%	3.54	3.29	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sauryn Lao (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	20.4%	6.9%	2.5%	—	4.21	20.7%	13.2%	220	+0.18	—	—	—
Reinier Roibal R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	26	SU	3.11	19.1%	4.5%	1.9%	.262	4.37	16.9%	9.8%	35	+1.26	3.11	133	77
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	75
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	74
Seth Frankoff R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	26	SU	4.01	19.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.312	4.29	20.0%	11.3%	177	+0.28	2.88	263	74
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	73
Jonathan Aro R 2017 · 3.72 FIP	26	SU	3.72	25.3%	6.9%	3.4%	.252	3.56	14.6%	8.1%	108	-0.16	2.57	323	72
Pedro Rodriguez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	16.4%	4.5%	1.7%	.272	3.70	13.1%	5.2%	43	+0.49	3.21	145	72
Anders Tolhurst R 2023 · 2.93 FIP	23	SU	2.93	20.9%	9.2%	0.8%	.338	5.00	19.8%	11.9%	131	+2.07	2.93	159	72
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	72
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	72
Stephen Perakslis R 2017 · 3.07 FIP	26	SW	3.07	21.3%	8.2%	1.3%	.313	5.15	11.8%	5.9%	42	+2.08	3.07	211	72
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	71
Jackson Rose R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	26	SW	3.33	21.0%	4.3%	2.6%	.245	4.79	23.3%	10.7%	26	+1.46	3.33	147	71
Esmerling De La Rosa R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	20.5%	7.2%	2.0%	.313	4.86	14.1%	5.8%	66	+1.46	2.89	237	71
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	71
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	70
Conor Mullee R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	27	SU	3.26	17.7%	7.2%	1.4%	.290	2.64	24.2%	16.3%	55	-0.62	2.17	110	70
Ryan Eades R 2018 · 3.19 FIP	26	SW	3.19	22.4%	7.4%	1.9%	.352	4.24	23.9%	15.3%	64	+1.05	3.19	451	70
Richard Rodríguez R 2016 · 3.34 FIP	26	SU	3.34	21.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.267	3.40	26.2%	19.8%	205	+0.06	2.23	545	70
Deolis Guerra R 2015 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	23.5%	4.9%	3.2%	.291	3.65	21.9%	15.7%	179	+0.17	2.53	364	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	66	20.6%	7.6%	1.09	4.20
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47