Sauryn Lao

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 182 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX3 levels	34	1	57	3.79	2.43	30.7%	4.2%	—	K 23.8% · BB 5.2% · FIP 3.31
2024	24	MIX2 levels	40	0	53	3.74	2.68	23.7%	8.8%	—	K 19.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.08
2025	25	MIX2 levels	33	19	86	3.26	3.16	23.8%	6.5%	2.3	K 21.2% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.34
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	5	0	5	4.10	4.10	21.3%	7.2%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBWSH	16	0	17	4.17	4.20	21.4%	7.5%	0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBWSH	20	0	21	4.28	4.34	21.3%	7.9%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsColeman Huntley III (age 28) · Austin Ross (age 27) · Heath Hembree (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.10

FIP4.10

K%21.3%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%14.1%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	1	57	238	73	10	6	3%	1.7	23.8%	5.2%	18.6%	2.8%	3.79	3.31	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	1	57	238	73	10	6	3%	1.7	30.7%	4.2%	26.5%	2.5%	3.79	2.43	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	228	54	20	2	0%	1.3	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	1.0%	3.74	3.08	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	228	54	20	2	0%	1.3	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	1.0%	3.74	3.08	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	53	228	54	20	2	0%	1.3	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	0.9%	3.74	2.68	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	19	86	353	84	23	8	58%	2.6	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	2.3%	3.26	3.34	+2.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	19	86	353	84	23	8	58%	2.6	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	2.3%	3.26	3.34	+2.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	19	86	353	84	23	8	58%	2.6	23.8%	6.5%	17.3%	2.3%	3.26	3.16	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	0	11	49	9	2	2	0%	1.4	18.4%	4.1%	14.3%	4.1%	4.91	4.37	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.7%	4.10	4.10	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	39	0	41	171	37	13	5	0%	1.0	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	2.9%	4.17	4.20	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	34	0	36	150	32	12	5	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.34	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	16	0	17	72	15	5	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	2.9%	4.17	4.20	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	20	0	21	89	19	7	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	0	49	210	43	14	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	6.9%	13.8%	3.2%	4.38	3.99	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	0	200	855	175	57	28	0%	1.1	20.6%	6.9%	13.8%	3.2%	4.38	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		107	20	196	819	176	54	17	19%	1.8	21.5%	6.6%	15.0%	2.1%	3.54	3.26	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	20	200	837	180	55	17	19%	1.8	21.5%	6.6%	15.0%	2.1%	3.54	3.26	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 75 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.34 (+0.36)K% 24.7% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.67%	—	×0.860	21.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.91%	—	×0.900	6.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷0.960	×1.100	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 29 IPFIP 3.17 → 3.36 (+0.20)K% 19.4% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.38%	—	×0.860	16.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×0.900	9.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷0.896	×1.100	0.95%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 24 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.71 (+0.63)K% 29.3% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.29%	—	×0.810	23.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.07%	—	×1.100	7.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.01%	÷1.063	×1.200	1.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 42 IPFIP 1.68 → 2.76 (+1.08)K% 33.7% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.73%	—	×0.740	24.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.55%	—	×1.180	4.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷1.025	×1.300	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 1.68 → 2.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Great Lakes Loons · 12 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.94 (+1.25)K% 26.3% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.770	20.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.02%	—	×1.150	8.07%
HR / BF /BF	3.51%	÷0.951	×1.250	4.61%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sauryn Lao (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	21.3%	7.2%	2.7%	—	4.27	21.3%	13.7%	76	+0.17	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	82
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	81
Heath Hembree R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	21.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.292	4.03	27.3%	18.8%	162	+0.29	2.52	382	80
Shawn Camp R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	17.8%	5.2%	3.5%	.305	3.88	15.5%	10.5%	164	-0.30	2.79	589	79
Richard Rodríguez R 2017 · 3.03 FIP	27	SU	3.03	24.7%	6.3%	2.2%	.279	3.45	28.4%	22.2%	158	+0.42	2.23	545	79
Pedro Rodriguez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	16.4%	4.5%	1.7%	.272	3.70	13.1%	5.2%	43	+0.49	3.21	145	78
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	78
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	78
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	77
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	77
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	77
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	77
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	77
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	77
Ryan Tepera R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	27	SU	4.17	21.1%	7.2%	3.5%	.174	3.40	24.7%	16.0%	206	-0.77	2.35	445	76
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	76
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	76
Brandon Brennan R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SU	3.42	19.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.263	3.81	21.7%	12.0%	85	+0.39	3.11	403	76
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	76
Jason Frasor R 2005 · 3.90 FIP	27	SU	3.90	20.3%	8.5%	2.6%	.282	3.66	22.9%	13.0%	154	-0.24	2.71	647	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	21.1%	7.2%	1.15	4.23
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Jay Ritchie ('64-'68, 2 WAR*)	1.5	58	21.1%*	8.0%*	1.01*	4.21*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*