Sauryn Lao
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.8
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 182 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.06
FIP4.06
xFIP4.14
SIERA3.73
K%21.9%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%13.7%
IP66
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5055
SL+1.4 (48%)
CH (7%)
SI (15%)
FB-3.4 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 34 | 1 | 57 | 238 | 73 | 10 | 6 | 23.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 3.79 | 3.33 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | 40 | 0 | 53 | 228 | 54 | 20 | 2 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 1.0% | 3.74 | 3.17 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 19 | 86 | 353 | 84 | 23 | 8 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 3.26 | 3.41 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 61 | 23 | 7 | 21.9% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 61 | 23 | 7 | 22.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.10 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 59 | 23 | 7 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.19 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 57 | 22 | 7 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 21.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 38 | 19 | 6 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 20 | 196 | 819 | 179 | 59 | 17 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.32 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 20 | 200 | 837 | 183 | 60 | 17 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.32 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sauryn Lao (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 21.9% | 8.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.14 | 22.1% | 13.7% | 193 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Seth Frankoff R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.02 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.22 | 2.88 | 263 | 84 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 82 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 81 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 79 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.06 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .239 | 4.22 | 16.6% | 6.3% | 126 | +1.16 | 3.06 | 221 | 79 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 79 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.00 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .256 | 3.93 | 25.6% | 17.6% | 173 | -0.07 | 2.67 | 382 | 79 |
| Joe Navilhon R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.22 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .322 | 4.28 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 99 | +1.06 | 2.25 | 273 | 79 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 134 | 78 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 78 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.18 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .284 | 3.71 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 55 | +0.53 | 2.49 | 160 | 78 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 78 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 78 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 78 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.73 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.09 | 2.62 | 304 | 78 |
| Kevin Quackenbush R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.27 | 23.9% | 7.0% | 2.4% | .284 | 3.77 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 174 | +0.50 | 2.32 | 334 | 77 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 77 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 77 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.37 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .313 | 4.87 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.50 | 2.90 | 237 | 77 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.66 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 4.1% | .302 | 3.31 | 24.5% | 15.5% | 94 | -1.35 | 2.49 | 238 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.4M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $9M | $13M | +$5M | ||