Sauryn Lao
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 182 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95
ERA4.14
FIP4.14
K%21.4%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP46
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+1.4 (48%)
CH (7%)
SI (15%)
FB-3.4 (45%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 1 | 57 | 238 | 73 | 10 | 6 | 3% | 1.7 | 23.8% | 5.2% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 3.79 | 3.32 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 1 | 57 | 238 | 73 | 10 | 6 | 3% | 1.7 | 30.7% | 4.2% | 26.5% | 2.5% | 3.79 | 2.43 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 53 | 228 | 54 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 1.1% | 3.74 | 3.19 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 53 | 228 | 54 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 0.9% | 3.74 | 2.68 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 19 | 86 | 353 | 84 | 23 | 8 | 58% | 2.6 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 3.26 | 3.48 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 19 | 86 | 353 | 84 | 23 | 8 | 58% | 2.6 | 23.8% | 6.5% | 17.3% | 2.3% | 3.26 | 3.16 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 43 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 0 | 58 | 248 | 52 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 7.6% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 3.95 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 0 | 200 | 853 | 179 | 65 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 7.6% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 107 | 20 | 196 | 819 | 179 | 59 | 18 | 19% | 1.8 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 14.6% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 3.35 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 20 | 200 | 837 | 183 | 61 | 18 | 19% | 1.8 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 14.6% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 3.35 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sauryn Lao (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.14 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.23 | 21.6% | 13.1% | 90 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 5.11 | 20.4% | 15.3% | 41 | +1.57 | 3.08 | 210 | 77 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.07 | 19.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | .262 | 4.33 | 16.9% | 9.8% | 35 | +1.26 | 3.07 | 133 | 75 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 75 |
| Joe Navilhon R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.06 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 1.3% | .322 | 4.41 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 99 | +1.35 | 2.12 | 273 | 75 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 74 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 263 | 74 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 74 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 74 |
| Jake Curtis R 2024 · 3.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.34 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 105 | 73 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 73 |
| Stephen Perakslis R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.17 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 1.5% | .313 | 5.36 | 11.8% | 5.9% | 42 | +2.19 | 3.17 | 211 | 73 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .252 | 3.60 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 108 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 323 | 73 |
| Mason Erla R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.12 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 1.1% | .323 | 6.49 | 13.2% | 0.4% | 22 | +3.37 | 3.12 | 206 | 72 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 72 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 72 |
| Miguel Sánchez R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.68 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.77 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 83 | +1.09 | 2.54 | 309 | 71 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 71 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 71 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 71 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.25 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .313 | 5.21 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.96 | 2.98 | 237 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 45 | 21.5% | 8.4% | 1.04 | 4.19 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |