Kyle HayesC Harrisburg Senators
Age 28 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 145 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†69
AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .292 / .305
PA145
HR2
K%30
BB%8
BABIP286
ISO102
MLB%2%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -7.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: -0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +3.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +4.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.10.0+$3M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202224 A2 teams — 10391 5101 6556 10 5516599264 44114 536 134 -39 — — — — — —
202224 A2 teams — 10386 10202 10356 10 116252209462 93163 3410 229 33 — — — — — —
202325 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 1812 4110 431 00 3335295831.113 250400 1722 444 198 — — — — — —
202325 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 1811 4110 521 00 3645886361.225 273400 1128 496 238 — — — — — —
202426 A+2 teams — 7867 10200 8283 01 149269179448 30256 3610 209 19 — — — — — —
202426 A+2 teams — 7863 12300 12223 01 190346238584 48293 2815 289 80 — — — — — —
202527 AA2 teams — 167138 19501 156710 10 138270196466 58250 409 215 23 — — — — — —
202527 AA2 teams — 167130 21501 235510 10 162331223554 62263 3314 272 67 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD28 AAWSH — 2522 4000 2121 00 182280182462 400 488 226 31 -2 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.1
YTD28 AAWSH — 2521 5000 391 00 238360238598 417 3612 294 83 -0 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.1
ROS28 AAWSH 2% 145128 26512 12434 21 203292305596 102287 308 276 69 -5 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.2
ROS28 MLBWSH 2% 33 0000 010 00 287 330 257 54 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
FULL28 AAWSH — 2825 4000 2131 00 160250160410 333 467 229 34 -2 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.1
TOT28 AAWSH — 170150 30512 14555 21 200290287577 87298 328 269 64 -7 +0 +0 +3 +5 0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202729 MLBWSH 23% 243215 45914 20716 41 209295316611 107287 298 279 72 -8 +0 -1 +4 +7 0.2
202830 MLBWSH 35% 290257 541115 24847 41 210295319614 109286 298 279 72 -9 +0 -2 +5 +8 0.3
202931 MLBWSH 42% 278247 511015 23816 31 206290316606 109284 298 278 71 -9 +0 -3 +5 +8 0.1
203032 MLBWSH 46% 258229 46914 21766 21 201285301586 100281 298 273 67 -10 +0 -4 +5 +7 -0.1
202729 MLBWSH 23% 5549 10201 5161 10 204291306597 102287 299 261 58 -3 +0 -0 +1 +2 -0.0
202830 MLBWSH 35% 10190 19402 8292 10 211290322612 111286 298 262 59 -5 +0 -1 +2 +3 -0.1
202931 MLBWSH 42% 116102 22412 10343 10 216304333638 118284 299 261 58 -6 +0 -1 +2 +3 -0.1
203032 MLBWSH 46% 118104 22412 10353 10 212299327626 115281 308 257 55 -6 +0 -2 +2 +3 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 393348 731427 331159 40 210295322617 112288 298 260 57 -19 +1 -4 +7 +11 -0.4
/ 162G— — 650576 12123312 5519015 70 210296323619 113288 298 260 57 -31 +1 -6 +12 +18 -0.7
Career— — 15801384 26053622 13350849 176 188282283565 95276 328 260 57 -77 +1 -10 +28 +45 -1.3
/ 162G— — 650569 1072229 5520920 72 188282281563 93277 328 260 57 -32 +1 -4 +12 +18 -0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202224 A+Quad Cities River Bandits — 1613 0000 152 00 188188 316 135 -38 -2 +0 — — +0 -0.2
202224 AColumbia Fireflies — 8773 10202 9304 10 137264247511 110195 3410 246 46 -5 +0 — — +2 -0.3
202325 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 1811 4110 521 00 3645886361.225 273400 1128 496 238 +3 +0 — — +1 0.3
202426 A+Quad Cities River Bandits — 5848 7300 7203 01 146293208501 62250 3412 251 50 -3 -0 — — +2 -0.2
202426 ROKACL Royals — 2015 5000 520 00 333500333833 385 1025 401 165 +1 +0 — — +1 0.2
202527 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 2921 3100 4102 00 143333190524 48231 3414 254 52 -2 +0 — — +1 -0.1
202527 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 138109 18401 19458 10 165331229560 64270 3314 276 70 -5 +0 — — +4 -0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA
72,830452244301351+21+317.27.2
/162664110+4.9+7.21.7pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA
91,648311209276313+29+566.46.7
/162664120+11.9+22.42.6pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA
91,844192219297308+17+525.65.8
/16266471+6.1+18.72.0pk7: 6
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA
51,650782213260414+29-44.24.2
/162664311+11.9-1.71.7pk7: 4
#5Adam Engellast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA
61,5403047225280350+4+334.24.2
/1626641320+1.8+14.41.8pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA
71,680226230279335+9+212.02.0
/16266492+3.7+8.50.8pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons
139375208289316+7+40.40.4
/162664118+11.9+6.80.6pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Kyle Hayes (OGILVIE) 28 — — — — 200/290/287 87298 22 32% 8% 64 +0.1 ————————— —————————
✕Zack Short
2023 · MLB 		28 37→38 46→50 46→45 51 190/285/315 126261 139 31% 11% 69 -0.4 190/284/317 127263 1410 31% 11% 69 -0.4 173/272/29912623415831%11%58-0.7
✕Alex De Goti
2023 · AAA 		28 44→47 42→45 51→50 49 214/289/322 109281 88 26% 9% 71 -0.3 199/276/283 84272 710 27% 9% 56 -1.3 177/262/2355824741027%9%36-1.2
✕Brad Davis
2012 · MLB 		29 46 45→50 46→45 43 229/281/353 124295 124 26% 6% 76 +0.0 203/248/308 105271 98 28% 5% 50 -1.8 162/203/250882177728%5%13-1.3
✕Chris Herrmann
2016 · MLB 		28 44→48 43→50 51→50 44 216/272/330 114278 98 25% 6% 66 -0.6 222/297/375 153285 1710 27% 9% 89 +0.9 217/305/38416627720828%11%92+0.5
✕Justin Knoedler
2008 · AAA 		28 45 43→45 50→45 40 217/266/333 116298 910 29% 6% 64 -0.8 195/240/331 136259 158 30% 5% 53 -1.5 133/185/27914615819431%4%17-1.6
✕Dan Butler
2015 · MLB 		28 43→38 43→45 44→40 43 213/270/326 113269 113 25% 6% 64 -0.8 220/284/316 96287 63 24% 7% 67 -0.5 220/291/305852865023%8%65-0.3
✕Dusty Brown
2011 · AAA 		29 42 44→45 47→30 43 212/272/328 116281 123 28% 7% 66 -0.6 219/288/371 152273 165 25% 8% 84 +0.6 214/294/38316925618123%9%90+0.3
✕Andrew Knizner
2022 · MLB 		27 43 43→50 48→40 50 212/293/324 112254 116 21% 8% 75 -0.0 218/287/334 116270 134 23% 7% 74 -0.1 218/299/36114225717222%7%83+0.2
✕Danny Mendick
2022 · MLB 		28 46→49 43→45 43→50 46 225/285/331 105277 118 23% 7% 72 -0.2 236/295/361 125290 1412 23% 7% 84 +0.6 230/289/365135277151522%7%78+0.1
✕Brad Cresse
2006 · AAA 		28 41 43→50 47→30 43 202/267/321 119264 106 27% 7% 63 -0.9 218/278/353 135306 156 32% 7% 75 -0.0 206/269/34013429318035%7%68-0.2
✕Bryan Holaday
2017 · MLB 		29 46 45 43→40 41 229/275/350 121280 125 23% 5% 72 -0.2 229/282/357 128264 133 18% 6% 78 +0.2 223/289/35313025614219%7%76+0.0
✕Austin Wynns
2019 · MLB 		28 47→51 45 47→30 44 235/285/349 114286 143 23% 6% 76 +0.1 223/276/327 104271 134 22% 6% 66 -0.6 235/302/33810429012322%7%78+0.1
✕John Hester
2012 · MLB 		28 45 44→55 41→50 42 223/278/339 116296 117 28% 6% 70 -0.3 200/258/312 112287 125 33% 7% 56 -1.3 184/244/29110726911434%7%42-1.0
✕Grayson Greiner
2020 · MLB 		27 42 45 45→30 45 212/276/331 119282 133 29% 8% 68 -0.5 203/266/324 121314 144 37% 7% 63 -0.9 179/245/2678833110145%7%36-0.9
✕Richie Martin Jr.
2022 · MLB 		27 44→52 42→45 48→60 42 214/274/314 100281 915 27% 6% 63 -0.9 209/283/302 93286 531 27% 7% 64 -0.8 203/284/2939027944026%7%58-0.7
✕Rob Johnson
2012 · MLB 		30 43→52 42→45 48→50 50 210/290/320 110269 97 24% 9% 72 -0.2 211/268/328 117255 126 22% 7% 64 -0.8 197/247/30510823212321%6%45-0.9
✕Craig Stansberry
2010 · MLB 		28 46→47 42→50 45→50 49 222/285/331 109269 910 21% 8% 71 -0.3 228/286/343 115289 1112 24% 7% 76 +0.0 227/289/342114290111225%7%74-0.0
✕Andrew Susac
2017 · MLB 		27 41→40 47→50 47→30 43 210/272/345 135276 153 29% 7% 70 -0.3 196/269/337 141275 175 33% 9% 68 -0.5 165/254/30514022919035%10%53-0.5
✕Xavier Fernández
2023 · AAA 		28 46 42→50 46→40 43 227/270/325 98274 105 22% 5% 63 -0.8 239/291/381 142289 155 22% 6% 88 +0.9 245/302/41517029018022%7%98+1.1
✕Mike Rivera
2005 · MLB 		28 45 45→55 49→45 46 227/285/353 126275 138 22% 7% 77 +0.1 231/274/413 182254 257 21% 4% 89 +1.0 213/254/38717323125621%4%71-0.2