Kyle Hayes — OGILVIE

Kyle HayesC Harrisburg Senators

Age 28 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP293

ISO106

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	24	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	16	13	0	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0		188		188			31	6	135	-22	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2022	24	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	87	73	10	2	0	2	9	30	4	1	0	137	264	247	511	110	195	34	10	246	52	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2023	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	18	11	4	1	1	0	5	2	1	0	0	364	588	636	1.225	273	400	11	28	496	222	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2024	26	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	58	48	7	3	0	0	7	20	3	0	1	146	293	208	501	62	250	34	12	251	56	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	26	ROK	ACL Royals	—	20	15	5	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	333	500	333	833		385	10	25	401	157	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	27	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	29	21	3	1	0	0	4	10	2	0	0	143	333	190	524	48	231	34	14	254	58	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	27	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	138	109	18	4	0	1	19	45	8	1	0	165	331	229	560	64	270	33	14	276	73	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	16	13	0	0	0	0	1	7	2	0	0		188		188			44	6	100	-46	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2022	24	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	87	78	6	1	0	1	5	45	4	1	0	77	172	128	301	51	161	52	6	155	-9	-11	+0	—	—	+2	-0.9
2023	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	18	12	4	1	1	0	4	2	1	0	0	333	529	583	1.113	250	349	11	22	464	200	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2024	26	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	58	50	5	2	0	0	5	26	3	0	1	100	224	140	364	40	211	45	9	181	9	-6	-0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2024	26	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	20	17	4	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	235	350	235	585		306	15	15	297	87	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2025	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	29	22	3	1	0	0	3	12	2	0	0	136	296	182	478	45	196	41	10	229	41	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	138	116	17	4	0	1	12	54	8	1	0	147	272	207	479	60	245	39	9	219	34	-11	+0	—	—	+3	-0.8
2022	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	103	91	6	1	0	1	6	52	6	1	0	66	175	110	285	44	132	50	6	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	103	86	10	2	0	2	10	35	6	1	0	116	252	209	462	93	163	34	10	229	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	18	12	4	1	1	0	4	2	1	0	0	333	529	583	1.113	250	364	11	22	464	200	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	18	11	4	1	1	0	5	2	1	0	0	364	588	636	1.225	273	400	11	28	496	200	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	78	67	10	2	0	0	8	29	3	0	1	149	269	179	448	30	263	37	10	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	78	63	12	3	0	0	12	22	3	0	1	190	346	238	584	48	293	28	15	289	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	167	138	20	5	0	1	15	66	10	1	0	145	276	203	479	58	260	40	9	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	167	130	21	5	0	1	23	55	10	1	0	162	331	223	554	62	263	33	14	272	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	103	90	6	1	0	1	6	52	6	1	0	67	175	111	286	44	136	50	6	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	18	13	4	1	1	0	4	2	1	0	0	308	529	538	1.068	231	349	11	22	464	200	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	78	67	10	2	0	0	8	29	3	0	1	149	269	179	448	30	235	37	10	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	167	140	20	5	0	1	15	66	10	1	0	143	276	200	476	57	236	40	9	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	18	13	4	1	1	0	4	2	1	0	0	308	529	538	1.068	231	349	11	22	464	200	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	78	67	10	2	0	0	8	29	3	0	1	149	269	179	448	30	235	37	10	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	167	140	20	5	0	1	15	66	10	1	0	143	276	200	476	57	236	40	9	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	WSH	—	42	38	8	0	0	1	2	19	2	0	0	211	286	289	575	79	389	45	5	234	45	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA RAW	WSH	—	25	21	5	0	0	0	3	9	1	0	0	238	360	238	598		417	36	12	294	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	AAA RAW	WSH	—	17	16	4	0	0	1	0	7	1	0	0	250	294	438	732	188	375	41	0	325	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	28	AA MLE	WSH	2%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		295	30	10	276	73	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	28	AA MLE	WSH	—	52	47	9	0	0	1	3	22	2	0	0	191	269	255	525	64	333	42	6	242	50	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	WSH	28%	243	215	44	8	1	4	20	74	6	3	1	205	290	307	597	102	294	30	8	278	74	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	43%	290	257	53	10	1	5	24	87	7	4	1	206	292	311	603	105	292	30	8	279	75	-9	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	WSH	28%	68	61	12	2	0	1	5	21	2	1	0	197	279	279	558	82	292	31	7	258	74	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	43%	125	111	22	4	0	2	10	38	3	2	0	198	282	288	571	90	291	30	8	259	75	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	193	172	34	6	0	3	15	59	5	3	0	198	281	285	566	87	279	31	8	259	56	-6	+1	-1	+3	+4	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	114	20	0	10	51	199	17	10	0	197	281	283	565	86	279	31	8	259	56	-20	+2	-4	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	909	789	138	27	3	11	78	313	33	9	3	175	277	259	535	84	270	34	9	251	56	-16	+1	-3	+10	+12	0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	564	98	19	2	8	56	224	24	6	2	174	277	257	534	83	268	34	9	251	56	-20	+1	-4	+12	+14	0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kyle Hayes (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	205/290/306	102	295	3	2	31%	8%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	39	45	48→40	49	198/286/319	122	254	12	5	26%	9%	74	-0.5	216/298/331	115	289	12	7	27%	9%	80	-0.1	197/296/255	58	267	7	0	26%	12%	61	-0.3
✕Brad Cresse 2006 · AAA	28	41	43→45	47→30	44	203/271/323	120	265	10	6	26%	7%	68	-1.0	218/281/348	130	303	14	6	31%	7%	78	-0.3	206/269/329	123	290	16	0	33%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Alex De Goti 2023 · AAA	28	44→48	41→45	51→50	48	210/283/311	101	276	8	8	26%	9%	70	-0.8	198/276/278	80	272	6	10	27%	9%	60	-1.6	176/261/230	54	248	4	10	28%	9%	42	-1.3
✕Justin Knoedler 2008 · AAA	28	45	42→45	50→45	40	217/267/333	116	298	9	10	29%	6%	69	-0.9	195/242/330	135	260	14	8	30%	5%	59	-1.6	133/185/279	146	158	19	4	31%	4%	26	-1.6
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→39	44→50	46→45	50	188/283/306	118	262	12	9	31%	11%	70	-0.8	187/282/307	120	260	13	10	31%	11%	70	-0.9	168/270/286	118	229	14	8	31%	11%	59	-1.0
✕Dusty Brown 2011 · AAA	29	43	42→45	47→30	44	210/271/314	104	281	10	3	28%	7%	66	-1.1	213/283/348	135	271	14	5	25%	8%	79	-0.2	202/281/348	146	246	15	1	24%	9%	78	-0.1
✕Martin Cervenka 2021 · AAA	28	43→48	44→45	49→40	40	213/263/323	110	291	12	6	30%	6%	65	-1.2	196/258/314	118	273	13	8	31%	7%	61	-1.5	140/210/250	110	183	13	2	31%	8%	28	-1.4
✕David Sheaffer 2022 · AAA	27	44	42→50	49→40	39	216/260/323	108	296	10	6	30%	5%	63	-1.3	199/252/297	98	292	8	7	33%	6%	55	-2.0	141/196/220	79	214	6	0	36%	5%	15	-1.2
✕Beamer Weems 2015 · AAA	28	44→47	44→45	47→40	42	218/273/330	113	288	11	9	28%	6%	70	-0.8	208/262/307	99	255	8	7	21%	6%	61	-1.5	181/231/254	73	220	3	0	19%	6%	33	-1.4
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	42	44→45	43→40	43	210/274/328	118	283	11	5	29%	7%	70	-0.8	219/287/362	143	261	15	6	21%	8%	83	+0.1	203/270/374	171	212	20	2	16%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Danny Mendick 2022 · MLB	28	46→48	43→45	43→50	47	227/288/332	105	279	11	8	22%	7%	76	-0.4	235/295/355	120	289	13	12	22%	7%	84	+0.2	228/286/354	126	275	14	15	22%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Mitchell Tolman 2022 · AAA	28	45→47	44→45	47→50	42	220/285/343	123	290	11	8	27%	6%	78	-0.3	229/300/362	133	293	12	9	25%	8%	88	+0.4	227/305/358	130	286	11	7	23%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Nevin Ashley 2014 · AAA	29	45→51	43→45	47→45	45	222/288/336	114	285	10	7	25%	7%	78	-0.3	224/288/329	105	292	9	4	25%	7%	76	-0.4	223/291/321	98	292	9	1	25%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Max McDowell 2022 · AAA	28	44→48	39→40	48→50	47	206/309/292	86	283	6	9	27%	8%	77	-0.3	191/277/277	86	270	8	7	30%	8%	61	-1.5	164/249/239	75	235	9	3	32%	7%	40	-1.2
✕Mike Rivera 2005 · MLB	28	45	45→55	49→45	47	227/285/353	126	275	13	8	22%	7%	80	-0.2	231/274/413	182	254	25	7	21%	4%	91	+0.6	213/254/387	173	231	25	6	21%	4%	74	-0.3
✕Dan Butler 2015 · MLB	28	43→39	43→45	44→40	44	211/270/320	110	265	10	3	24%	6%	67	-1.1	218/281/310	92	285	6	3	24%	7%	69	-0.9	212/282/298	86	268	7	0	22%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Christian Lopes 2021 · AAA	28	45→51	44→45	47→50	49	222/297/340	118	275	11	13	23%	8%	82	+0.0	213/291/335	122	306	12	11	32%	8%	79	-0.2	194/280/309	115	286	11	9	33%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	40	47→45	46→30	43	206/271/335	129	277	15	4	31%	8%	71	-0.8	196/261/305	109	342	12	5	43%	7%	61	-1.5	178/245/263	85	331	9	1	46%	8%	42	-0.9
✕Tony Sanchez 2016 · MLB	28	42→49	44→50	43→40	45	210/279/328	117	270	11	5	26%	7%	72	-0.7	216/280/317	101	283	9	4	26%	7%	70	-0.8	231/287/319	89	313	8	1	27%	6%	70	-0.4
✕Juan Brito 2006 · MLB	28	44	43→45	47→40	42	220/268/324	104	285	11	5	27%	6%	67	-1.1	230/277/341	111	301	11	4	26%	6%	74	-0.5	231/276/335	103	301	10	0	26%	5%	70	-0.4