Kyle Hayes
C Harrisburg Senators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | A+/ROKKC | 78 | .190/.346/.238 | 0 | 0 | 25 | — | .135/.256/.164 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 167 | .162/.331/.223 | 1 | 1 | 31 | — | .138/.270/.188 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/AAWSH | 42 | .243/.333/.324 | 1 | 0 | 42 | — | .184/.262/.260 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBWSH | 2 | .207/.288/.314 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 30 | MLBWSH | 34 | .206/.286/.311 | 1 | 0 | 71 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ35% MLB | 31 | MLBWSH | 51 | .204/.283/.306 | 1 | 0 | 69 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 16 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 188 | 31 | 6 | 135 | -49 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2022 | 24 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 87 | 73 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 137 | 264 | 247 | 511 | 110 | 195 | 34 | 10 | 246 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 18 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 364 | 588 | 636 | 1.225 | 273 | 400 | 11 | 28 | 496 | 196 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 58 | 48 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 146 | 293 | 208 | 501 | 62 | 250 | 34 | 12 | 251 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 20 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 500 | 333 | 833 | 385 | 10 | 25 | 401 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 29 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 333 | 190 | 524 | 48 | 231 | 34 | 14 | 254 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 138 | 109 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 165 | 331 | 229 | 560 | 64 | 270 | 33 | 14 | 276 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 17 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 294 | 438 | 732 | 188 | 375 | 41 | 0 | 325 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 25 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 360 | 238 | 598 | 417 | 36 | 12 | 294 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 16 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 188 | 38 | 6 | 96 | -49 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 87 | 77 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 184 | 130 | 314 | 52 | 153 | 51 | 7 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 18 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 529 | 583 | 1.113 | 250 | 340 | 11 | 22 | 458 | 196 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 58 | 50 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 100 | 224 | 140 | 364 | 40 | 202 | 43 | 9 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 20 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 350 | 235 | 585 | 288 | 15 | 15 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 29 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 296 | 182 | 478 | 45 | 194 | 41 | 10 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 138 | 116 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 138 | 265 | 190 | 454 | 52 | 232 | 39 | 9 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 375 | 610 | 188 | 330 | 47 | 0 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 25 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 280 | 182 | 462 | 387 | 44 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 103 | 91 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66 | 175 | 110 | 285 | 44 | 125 | 49 | 6 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 103 | 86 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116 | 252 | 209 | 462 | 93 | 163 | 34 | 10 | 229 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 18 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 529 | 583 | 1.113 | 250 | 364 | 11 | 22 | 458 | 196 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 18 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 364 | 588 | 636 | 1.225 | 273 | 400 | 11 | 28 | 496 | 196 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 78 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 134 | 256 | 164 | 421 | 30 | 231 | 36 | 10 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 78 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 346 | 238 | 584 | 48 | 293 | 28 | 15 | 289 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 138 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 130 | 264 | 181 | 445 | 51 | 233 | 40 | 9 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 167 | 130 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 162 | 331 | 223 | 554 | 62 | 263 | 33 | 14 | 272 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 42 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 289 | 575 | 79 | 389 | 45 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 42 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 333 | 324 | 658 | 81 | 400 | 38 | 7 | 307 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 103 | 90 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 175 | 111 | 286 | 44 | 129 | 49 | 6 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 529 | 538 | 1.068 | 231 | 340 | 11 | 22 | 458 | 196 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 78 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 134 | 256 | 164 | 421 | 30 | 224 | 36 | 10 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 140 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 129 | 264 | 179 | 442 | 50 | 225 | 40 | 9 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 42 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 289 | 575 | 79 | 364 | 45 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 78 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 134 | 256 | 164 | 421 | 30 | 224 | 36 | 10 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 140 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 129 | 264 | 179 | 442 | 50 | 225 | 40 | 9 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 42 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 289 | 575 | 79 | 364 | 45 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 2% | 200 | 178 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 60 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 288 | 316 | 604 | 108 | 288 | 30 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 288 | 314 | 602 | 107 | 287 | 50 | 0 | 275 | 73 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | WSH | 23% | 151 | 135 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 286 | 313 | 599 | 106 | 286 | 30 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB MLE | WSH | 35% | 148 | 133 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 283 | 308 | 590 | 103 | 283 | 30 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -5 | +0 | -3 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | WSH | 23% | 34 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 286 | 311 | 597 | 105 | 286 | 29 | 9 | 273 | 71 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB CTX | WSH | 35% | 51 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 283 | 306 | 589 | 102 | 283 | 29 | 8 | 269 | 69 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 85 | 76 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 282 | 316 | 598 | 118 | 265 | 29 | 8 | 271 | 48 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 114 | 23 | 0 | 15 | 54 | 191 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 282 | 313 | 595 | 117 | 264 | 29 | 8 | 271 | 48 | -23 | +0 | -11 | +12 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 812 | 707 | 119 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 66 | 285 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 168 | 269 | 250 | 519 | 82 | 261 | 35 | 8 | 240 | 48 | -14 | +1 | -5 | +7 | +9 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 566 | 95 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 53 | 228 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 168 | 269 | 249 | 518 | 81 | 260 | 35 | 8 | 240 | 48 | -23 | +1 | -8 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 25 PAwOBA .288 → .232 (−56)K% 36.0% → 43.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 3.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 41.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.958 | 38.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .288 → .232; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .417 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 17 PAwOBA .316 → .229 (−86)K% 41.2% → 49.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.18% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 49.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 5.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 30.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 7.64% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .316 → .229; ISO .188 → .110; BABIP .375 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 138 PAwOBA .270 → .211 (−59)K% 32.6% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.61% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.77% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 8.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.80% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 4.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.31% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×0.968 | 17.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.984 | ×0.840 | ×1.011 | ×0.968 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.011 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.077 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 1.12% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .270 → .211; ISO .064 → .052; BABIP .270 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 29 PAwOBA .267 → .228 (−39)K% 34.5% → 41.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.48% | ÷1.007 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.79% | ÷0.935 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 10.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 6.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.108 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 15.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 7.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .267 → .228; ISO .048 → .044; BABIP .231 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 58 PAwOBA .246 → .179 (−67)K% 34.5% → 42.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.48% | ÷1.024 | ×1.270 | — | — | 42.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.07% | ÷0.967 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 8.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.17% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.958 | 3.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 12.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.113 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.958 | 7.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .246 → .179; ISO .062 → .040; BABIP .250 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Royals · 20 PAwOBA .393 → .281 (−111)K% 10.0% → 13.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 14.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.46% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 28.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 96, K 107, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .393 → .281; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .385 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 18 PAwOBA .514 → .458 (−56)K% 11.1% → 13.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 27.78% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 19.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 4.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.055 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 19.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 8.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.062 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 9.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.872 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 111, 2B 126, 3B 112, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .514 → .458; ISO .273 → .281; BABIP .400 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 87 PAwOBA .240 → .153 (−87)K% 34.5% → 50.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.48% | ÷0.937 | ×1.360 | — | — | 50.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.069 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 6.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 3.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.95% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 11.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.985 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 3.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.140 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 3.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 87, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .240 → .153; ISO .110 → .062; BABIP .195 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).