Chandler Arnold
Chandler Arnold
P
Palm Beach Cardinals
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 189 lbs
A
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION11 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.6%
IP11
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.94 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 23 | 1 | 28 | 147 | 31 | 32 | 3 | 17.0% | 28.3% | 2.6% | 8.58 | 6.65 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | STL | 11 | — | 11 | 47 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 1 | 29 | 152 | 26 | 43 | 4 | 17.1% | 28.0% | 2.5% | 8.28 | 6.56 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 7 | 200 | 1036 | 177 | 293 | 27 | 17.1% | 28.0% | 2.5% | 8.28 | 6.56 | -2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chandler Arnold (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.41 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 20 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.26 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 137 | +0.46 | 3.74 | 171 | 88 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 87 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.15 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.23 | 3.92 | 223 | 86 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 86 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 84 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 84 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 25.2% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 111 | 84 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.27 | 23.7% | 12.4% | 71 | -0.30 | 3.44 | 147 | 84 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 83 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .243 | 3.63 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -0.89 | 3.56 | 198 | 82 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.27 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.07 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.20 | 2.74 | 178 | 81 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 81 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .255 | 4.40 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 89 | +0.43 | 3.97 | 238 | 81 |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 81 |
| Vince Reilly R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 25.2% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 115 | 81 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.95 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 287 | 80 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2029 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 80 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 80 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.56 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .362 | 5.50 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 113 | +1.94 | 2.78 | 181 | 80 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.69 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.84 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 66 | +0.15 | 3.31 | 166 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.