Marques Johnson

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 213 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	6	1	7	2.45	3.10	36.4%	24.2%	—	K 36.4% · BB 24.2% · FIP 3.10
2025	25	MIX2 levels	41	0	57	2.53	2.17	33.1%	12.7%	—	K 26.2% · BB 14.3% · FIP 2.99
2026	26	MIX2 levels	40	0	51	5.33	4.28	25.8%	14.6%	—	K 21.5% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.67
2027PROJ	27	MLBSF	7	0	7	4.97	4.97	23.3%	15.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBSF	21	0	22	4.95	4.99	23.2%	15.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBSF	25	0	26	5.00	5.07	22.9%	14.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDennis Sarfate (age 27) · Beck Wheeler (age 27) · Nick Ernst (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%23.3%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	39	0	53	225	63	33	1	0%	1.4	20.7%	17.3%	3.4%	0.6%	4.27	3.90	—
2023	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	39	0	53	225	63	33	1	0%	1.4	28.0%	14.7%	13.3%	0.4%	4.27	2.83	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	7	33	12	8	0	17%	1.2	36.4%	24.2%	12.1%	0.0%	2.45	3.10	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	7	33	12	8	0	17%	1.2	36.4%	24.2%	12.1%	0.0%	2.45	3.10	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	7	33	12	8	0	17%	1.2	36.4%	24.2%	12.1%	0.0%	2.45	3.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	236	78	30	1	0%	1.4	26.2%	14.3%	11.9%	0.5%	2.53	2.99	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	236	78	30	1	0%	1.4	26.2%	14.3%	11.9%	0.5%	2.53	2.99	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	57	236	78	30	1	0%	1.4	33.1%	12.7%	20.3%	0.4%	2.53	2.17	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	51	233	60	34	6	0%	1.3	21.5%	13.7%	7.8%	3.0%	5.33	4.67	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	51	233	60	34	6	0%	1.3	21.5%	13.7%	7.8%	3.0%	5.33	4.67	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	51	233	60	34	6	0%	1.3	25.8%	14.6%	11.2%	2.6%	5.33	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SF	7	0	7	30	7	5	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	15.6%	7.6%	2.7%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	50	0	53	222	51	34	6	0%	1.1	23.2%	15.2%	8.0%	2.8%	4.95	4.99	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	42	0	44	187	43	28	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.9%	8.0%	3.0%	5.00	5.07	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	21	0	22	93	22	14	3	0%	1.0	23.2%	15.2%	8.0%	2.8%	4.95	4.99	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	25	0	26	110	25	16	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	14.9%	8.0%	3.0%	5.00	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	49	205	47	31	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	15.0%	8.0%	2.9%	4.98	4.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	128	25	0%	1.1	23.0%	15.0%	8.0%	2.9%	4.98	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		126	1	168	727	171	113	10	1%	1.3	23.5%	15.5%	8.0%	1.3%	3.92	3.82	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	1	200	867	204	134	12	1%	1.3	23.5%	15.5%	8.0%	1.3%	3.92	3.82	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 30 IPFIP 4.36 → 4.46 (+0.10)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.860	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.75%	—	×0.900	16.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.36 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 20 IPFIP 3.91 → 5.00 (+1.10)K% 31.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.46%	—	×0.810	25.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.87%	—	×1.100	8.65%
HR / BF /BF	4.49%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.39%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.91 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 31 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.47 (+0.68)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.85%	—	×1.100	13.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.183	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Eugene Emeralds · 26 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.69 (+1.05)K% 32.7% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.67%	—	×0.770	25.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.86%	—	×1.150	15.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷0.980	×1.250	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 6 IPFIP 3.66 → 5.00 (+1.34)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	26.67%	—	×1.180	31.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.959	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASan Jose Giants · 53 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.90 (+1.06)K% 28.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.740	20.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.67%	—	×1.180	17.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.44%	÷0.890	×1.300	0.65%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marques Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	5.03	23.0%	8.0%	97	+0.06	—	—	—
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	92
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	87
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	83
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	82
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	81
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	80
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	80
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	80
Jake Haberer R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	27	SU	5.24	24.3%	16.0%	4.0%	.324	5.08	16.4%	0.9%	62	-0.16	3.46	183	80
Joe Record R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	27	SU	3.78	20.1%	13.0%	1.3%	.333	3.43	21.1%	10.2%	112	-0.35	2.64	280	79
Zac Leigh R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	21.8%	15.4%	1.8%	.367	4.74	19.4%	2.7%	87	+0.53	3.70	201	79
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	23.1%	15.3%	1.08	4.97
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*