Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 39 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 63 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.7% | 17.3% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 4.27 | 3.95 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 39 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 63 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.0% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 0.4% | 4.27 | 2.83 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 17% | 1.2 | 36.4% | 24.2% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 17% | 1.2 | 36.4% | 24.2% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 57 | 236 | 78 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.2% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 0.6% | 2.53 | 3.00 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 57 | 236 | 78 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.1% | 12.7% | 20.3% | 0.4% | 2.53 | 2.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 24 | 0 | 30 | 144 | 32 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.6% | 19.7% | -0.1% | 1.5% | 5.34 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SF | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 41 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SF | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SF | — | — | 70 | 311 | 73 | 46 | 6 | — | — | 23.4% | 14.7% | 8.6% | 2.0% | 4.69 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SF | — | — | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 24.4% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 3.81 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 40 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 0 | 20 | 87 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 4.21 | 3.85 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 205 | 98 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 4.21 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 110 | 1 | 147 | 638 | 149 | 109 | 5 | 1% | 1.3 | 23.3% | 17.1% | 6.2% | 0.8% | 3.73 | 3.74 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 1 | 200 | 866 | 202 | 148 | 7 | 1% | 1.3 | 23.3% | 17.1% | 6.2% | 0.8% | 3.73 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marques Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | — | 4.24 | 24.3% | 13.1% | 39 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 95 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 93 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 90 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 89 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 89 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.08 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.66 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.58 | 3.08 | 124 | 88 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 87 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 87 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.04 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.4% | .330 | 3.26 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | +0.22 | 2.42 | 125 | 87 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .214 | 3.04 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.50 | 2.59 | 156 | 86 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 86 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 86 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.15 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.73 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.58 | 3.15 | 220 | 86 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 23.9% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .286 | 4.36 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 50 | +1.01 | 2.90 | 159 | 86 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.12 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .284 | 3.59 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 55 | +0.47 | 2.49 | 160 | 86 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 86 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 85 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 85 |
| Blake Treinen R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .314 | 2.59 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.51 | 1.51 | 544 | 85 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 39 | 24.4% | 11.2% | 0.96 | 4.20 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |