Marques Johnson
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 213 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.19
FIP4.19
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.4%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%13.1%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 39 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 63 | 33 | 1 | 20.7% | 17.3% | 0.6% | 4.27 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | A | San Jose Giants | 6 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 41 | 0 | 57 | 236 | 78 | 30 | 1 | 26.2% | 14.3% | 0.5% | 2.53 | 2.99 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 4 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SF | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 58 | 27 | 6 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | SF | — | — | 63 | 270 | 64 | 34 | 6 | 23.7% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 4.01 | 3.73 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 58 | 26 | 6 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 56 | 26 | 6 | 24.2% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SF | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 55 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SF | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 53 | 24 | 6 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SF | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 50 | 24 | 6 | 23.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SF | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 48 | 23 | 6 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SF | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 23.0% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SF | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SF | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 39 | 21 | 6 | 22.3% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SF | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 36 | 20 | 5 | 21.8% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 90 | 1 | 124 | 526 | 126 | 88 | 3 | 24.0% | 16.7% | 0.5% | 3.27 | 3.46 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 2 | 200 | 848 | 203 | 142 | 5 | 24.0% | 16.7% | 0.5% | 3.27 | 3.46 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marques Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | — | 4.25 | 24.2% | 13.2% | 165 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 97 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 92 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 92 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 90 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.94 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.64 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.70 | 3.84 | 272 | 88 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 88 |
| Seth Simmons R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 88 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .214 | 3.12 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.77 | 2.59 | 156 | 88 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.42 | 23.9% | 13.1% | 1.2% | .286 | 4.34 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 50 | +0.92 | 2.94 | 159 | 88 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.18 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .284 | 3.71 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 55 | +0.53 | 2.49 | 160 | 87 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 87 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 2.93 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.31 | 2.59 | 302 | 87 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 86 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 86 |
| Jordan Gore R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.19 | 25.8% | 11.9% | 1.4% | .223 | 5.35 | 15.2% | -3.3% | 46 | +2.16 | 3.19 | 113 | 86 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 86 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2024 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 86 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 86 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 85 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $9M | +$4M | ||