David Morgan — OGILVIE

David Morgan P San Diego Padres

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.82

FIP3.88

K%24.5%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p8731.1%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p750.288

FB+1.9 (57%)

SI (29%)

CU (25%)

SL-0.8 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	3	0	3	13	4	1	0	0%	1.0	30.8%	7.7%	23.1%	0.0%	3.00	1.48	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	3	0	3	13	4	1	0	0%	1.0	30.8%	7.7%	23.1%	0.0%	3.00	1.43	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	45	191	46	13	2	0%	1.6	17.8%	8.8%	9.0%	1.3%	3.83	3.44	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	45	191	46	13	2	0%	1.6	17.8%	8.8%	9.0%	1.3%	3.83	3.44	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	45	191	46	13	2	0%	1.6	24.1%	6.8%	17.3%	1.0%	3.83	2.50	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	61	258	63	25	5	0%	1.5	19.2%	10.9%	8.4%	2.6%	5.04	4.26	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	61	258	63	25	5	0%	1.5	19.2%	10.9%	8.4%	2.6%	5.04	4.26	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	61	258	63	25	5	0%	1.5	24.4%	9.7%	14.7%	1.9%	5.04	3.33	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	2	62	259	80	23	9	4%	1.1	25.9%	11.4%	14.5%	2.0%	3.65	3.47	+0.8
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	2	62	259	80	23	9	4%	1.1	25.9%	11.4%	14.5%	2.0%	3.65	3.47	+0.8
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	55	2	62	259	80	23	9	4%	1.1	30.9%	8.9%	22.0%	3.5%	3.65	3.52	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			66	2	73	321	80	37	6	3%	1.1	24.9%	11.5%	13.4%	1.9%	3.33	3.50	+0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	43	0	45	215	50	20	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	2.0%	5.04	3.41	+0.6
YTD	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	43	0	45	215	50	20	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	2.0%	5.04	3.41	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	SD	1	0	0	4	1	2	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	50.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	7.32	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	SD	17	0	19	83	19	3	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	3.6%	19.3%	2.4%	5.79	2.95	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	SD	25	0	26	128	30	15	2	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	1.6%	4.56	3.46	+0.3
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	SD	25	0	26	128	30	15	2	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	1.6%	4.56	3.46	+0.3
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SD	6	0	6	24	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.5%	10.9%	13.6%	2.7%	3.82	3.88	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	SD	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.5%	10.9%	13.6%	2.7%	3.82	3.88	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	50	239	56	23	5	—	—	23.4%	9.5%	13.9%	1.9%	4.90	3.46	+0.7
FULL	26	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	31	133	56	23	5	—	—	42.2%	17.1%	25.1%	3.5%	7.86	3.62	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SD	60	0	63	265	66	30	7	0%	1.0	25.0%	11.5%	13.5%	2.6%	4.20	4.24	+0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	SD	58	0	61	257	64	29	7	0%	1.0	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	2.7%	4.28	4.33	+0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	SD	57	0	60	253	63	29	7	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.5%	13.5%	2.6%	4.20	4.24	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	SD	55	0	58	245	61	28	7	0%	1.1	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	2.7%	4.28	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	2	196	841	209	97	20	1%	1.1	24.9%	11.5%	13.4%	2.3%	3.89	3.74	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	2	200	857	213	99	20	1%	1.1	24.9%	11.5%	13.4%	2.3%	3.89	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		169	2	215	936	201	93	19	1%	1.3	21.5%	10.0%	11.5%	2.0%	4.36	3.64	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	2	200	872	187	87	17	1%	1.3	21.5%	10.0%	11.5%	2.0%	4.36	3.64	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Morgan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	26.0%	11.7%	2.7%	—	4.28	24.9%	13.4%	124	+0.03	—	—	—
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	80
Cody Carroll R 2018 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	24.2%	12.7%	2.0%	.282	6.46	24.3%	12.3%	24	+2.73	3.67	311	80
José Ramírez R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	23.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.274	4.56	21.7%	10.8%	62	+1.20	3.36	206	79
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	78
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	78
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	77
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	77
Bruce Rondón R 2017 · 3.46 FIP	26	SU	3.46	24.6%	13.7%	1.3%	.364	3.31	26.0%	9.8%	30	-0.15	3.31	184	77
Scott Oberg R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	26	SU	3.19	22.9%	9.1%	1.6%	.260	2.92	23.8%	16.4%	188	-0.27	2.54	302	77
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	77
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	77
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	77
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	547	76
José A. Váldez R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	22.2%	13.1%	2.9%	.205	4.22	19.6%	8.3%	211	-0.28	4.02	328	76
Pierce Johnson R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	26	SU	3.09	27.8%	11.7%	1.6%	.374	3.71	25.0%	13.7%	86	+0.62	2.75	593	76
Alex Hoppe R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	23.7%	9.2%	3.5%	.371	3.94	20.7%	8.7%	184	-0.27	3.13	233	76
Luis García R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	28	SU	3.23	20.7%	9.5%	1.2%	.327	3.22	21.6%	12.8%	187	-0.01	2.33	617	76
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	76
Matt Barnes R 2016 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	24.7%	10.5%	2.1%	.311	2.96	34.4%	23.2%	196	-0.55	2.54	495	76
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	25.3%	11.5%	1.03	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41