David Morgan
P
San Diego Padres
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA3.58
FIP4.19
xFIP4.69
SIERA4.49
K%23.9%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%13.4%
IP43
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p9097.4
Whiff%
p7529.2%
K%
p5823.7%
xwOBA vs
p620.300
FB+1.9 (61%)
SI (35%)
CU (31%)
SL-0.8 (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Padres | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 28 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 46 | 13 | 2 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 1.3% | 3.83 | 3.45 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 40 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 63 | 25 | 5 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 2.5% | 5.04 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 55 | 2 | 62 | 259 | 80 | 23 | 9 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 1.8% | 3.65 | 3.37 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 7 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 7 | — | 7 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 3.56 | 4.07 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 17 | 71 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 24.8% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 1.42 | 1.62 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 46 | 19 | 5 | 25.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 45 | 19 | 5 | 25.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 24.9% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SD | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 41 | 18 | 5 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SD | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 23.7% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SD | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SD | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SD | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SD | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SD | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 20.2% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 5.00 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 133 | 2 | 180 | 763 | 165 | 81 | 14 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 3.94 | 3.62 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 2 | 200 | 846 | 183 | 90 | 16 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 3.94 | 3.62 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Morgan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.13 | 25.3% | 14.6% | 126 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 78 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.00 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .333 | 3.70 | 23.7% | 15.0% | 136 | +0.70 | 2.36 | 309 | 78 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 77 |
| Kyle Finnegan R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.30 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 1.2% | .314 | 3.43 | 25.8% | 16.2% | 141 | +0.13 | 2.54 | 692 | 77 |
| Austin Adams R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 77 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 62 | +1.27 | 3.36 | 206 | 77 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 77 |
| Cody Carroll R 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.80 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 6.50 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 24 | +2.70 | 3.67 | 311 | 76 |
| Zach Maxwell R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 23.6% | 14.8% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 165 | 76 |
| Blake Treinen R 2027 · 3.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.02 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.3% | .314 | 2.56 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.46 | 1.54 | 521 | 76 |
| Luis García R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.21 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 1.2% | .327 | 3.19 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 187 | -0.02 | 2.26 | 602 | 76 |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 76 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 18.1% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .269 | 3.87 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 89 | +0.01 | 3.14 | 197 | 75 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 75 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 75 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.13 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 4.1% | .267 | 2.91 | 26.9% | 15.2% | 69 | -2.22 | 1.48 | 230 | 75 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 22.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .205 | 4.26 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 211 | -0.24 | 4.02 | 328 | 75 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 75 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.00 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .306 | 3.65 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.35 | 2.94 | 157 | 75 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 2.93 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.31 | 2.59 | 302 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.779 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $8M | +$2M | ||