David Morgan
P
San Diego Padres
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89
ERA3.79
FIP3.86
K%25.6%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.4
Whiff%
p9032.0%
K%
p6424.8%
xwOBA vs
p790.284
FB+1.9 (57%)
SI (28%)
CU (26%)
SL-0.8 (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Padres | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 7.7% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 1.48 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Padres | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 7.7% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 1.43 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 46 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 1.2% | 3.83 | 3.37 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 46 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.1% | 6.8% | 17.3% | 1.0% | 3.83 | 2.50 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 63 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 5.04 | 4.37 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 63 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 5.04 | 3.33 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 55 | 2 | 62 | 259 | 80 | 23 | 9 | 4% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 3.65 | 3.58 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 55 | 2 | 62 | 259 | 80 | 23 | 9 | 4% | 1.1 | 30.9% | 8.9% | 22.0% | 3.5% | 3.65 | 3.52 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 29 | 0 | 33 | 155 | 37 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 11.4% | 13.3% | 1.9% | 5.23 | 3.50 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 39 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 39 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 69 | 309 | 76 | 34 | 7 | — | — | 24.7% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 4.47 | 3.69 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 58 | 247 | 76 | 34 | 7 | — | — | 30.9% | 13.7% | 17.2% | 2.9% | 5.29 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 60 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 67 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 65 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 64 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 62 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 206 | 2 | 223 | 947 | 241 | 109 | 24 | 1% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 3.79 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 2 | 200 | 849 | 216 | 98 | 22 | 1% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 155 | 2 | 203 | 876 | 193 | 93 | 18 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 2.1% | 4.35 | 3.72 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 2 | 200 | 864 | 190 | 92 | 18 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 2.1% | 4.35 | 3.72 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Morgan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 26.0% | 11.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.31 | 25.3% | 13.8% | 124 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 80 |
| Cody Carroll R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 7.04 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 24 | +3.27 | 3.73 | 311 | 79 |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 79 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | 2.96 | 24.1% | 11.8% | 38 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 214 | 79 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.28 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 1.5% | .274 | 4.56 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 62 | +1.28 | 3.28 | 206 | 78 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 78 |
| Dylan Smith R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.15 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 233 | 77 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 77 |
| Brian Ellington R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.81 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .283 | 5.60 | 22.4% | 5.3% | 29 | +0.79 | 2.75 | 233 | 77 |
| José Fermin R 2024 · 3.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.43 | 25.9% | 13.1% | 1.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 142 | 77 |
| Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.20 | 27.8% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .374 | 3.75 | 25.0% | 13.7% | 86 | +0.55 | 2.83 | 577 | 77 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 76 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 76 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 76 |
| Yosver Zulueta R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.47 | 24.7% | 13.0% | 1.5% | .339 | 4.39 | 22.9% | 7.5% | 129 | +0.92 | 3.20 | 314 | 76 |
| Blake Treinen R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .314 | 2.59 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.51 | 1.51 | 544 | 76 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 76 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.55 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 3.24 | 24.5% | 15.5% | 94 | -1.31 | 2.35 | 238 | 76 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.45 | 24.6% | 13.7% | 1.3% | .364 | 3.31 | 26.0% | 9.8% | 30 | -0.14 | 3.31 | 184 | 76 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 25.5% | 11.5% | 1.07 | 4.25 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |