Matt Wyatt
P
Charleston RiverDogs
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%23.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 35 | 0 | 55 | 237 | 59 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.4% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 4.75 | 4.22 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 35 | 0 | 55 | 237 | 59 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.9% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 1.3% | 4.75 | 3.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | TB | 37 | 0 | 38 | 163 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 37 | 0 | 38 | 163 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 67 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.01 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 80 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 35 | 0 | 55 | 237 | 44 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.4% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 4.75 | 4.22 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 0 | 200 | 862 | 159 | 129 | 12 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.4% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 4.75 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Wyatt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.38 | 23.3% | 13.8% | 113 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 92 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 90 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 89 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 89 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 88 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 88 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 88 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 88 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 87 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 1.8% | .257 | 5.16 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.98 | 3.18 | 117 | 87 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 87 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 86 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 86 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 86 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 86 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.5% | .313 | 3.38 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.17 | 2.88 | 312 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .286 | 6.43 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 24 | +2.19 | 4.09 | 183 | 86 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.88 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 167 | +0.74 | 3.34 | 334 | 85 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.81 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.69 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.88 | 3.16 | 253 | 85 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 38 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.37 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |