Marcus Smith — OGILVIE

Marcus SmithCF Dayton Dragons

Age 26 L/L 5'11" / 185 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.162 / .242 / .281

PA1

HR0

K%42

BB%9

BABIP265

ISO118

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	AZL Athletics Gold	—	119	97	35	6	1	0	20	29	0	1	1	361	470	443	913	82	507	24	17	409	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	38	32	6	1	1	1	4	18	2	0	0	188	316	375	691	188	385	47	11	315	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	385	302	54	8	1	5	66	163	8	47	8	179	340	262	602	83	353	42	17	287	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	60	45	6	0	0	0	15	27	0	4	2	133	350	133	483		333	45	25	265	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	42	39	6	1	0	0	2	21	1	2	2	154	214	179	394	26	333	50	5	189	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	103	89	16	2	0	2	13	40	1	4	1	180	291	270	561	90	298	39	13	266	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	239	200	38	7	2	4	32	82	3	17	4	190	311	305	616	115	288	34	13	283	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	76	60	17	4	2	4	15	26	0	4	0	283	427	617	1.043	333	419	34	20	441	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	162	143	20	2	1	4	16	71	1	3	0	140	231	252	483	112	232	44	10	223	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	46	38	6	0	1	1	8	15	0	2	0	158	304	289	594	132	227	33	17	280	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	20	16	2	0	0	0	4	11	0	2	0	125	300	125	425		400	55	20	230	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	122	103	24	4	2	5	16	40	0	4	0	233	336	456	792	223	317	33	13	342	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Gold	—	119	105	27	4	1	0	12	42	0	1	1	257	333	314	648	57	409	35	10	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	38	34	1	0	0	0	2	26	2	0	0	29	132	29	161		287	68	5	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	385	324	43	6	1	4	44	219	8	47	8	133	253	194	447	62	324	57	11	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	60	51	4	0	0	0	9	36	0	4	2	78	217	78	295		278	60	15	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	42	40	5	1	0	0	1	24	1	2	2	125	167	150	317	25	323	57	2	155	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	103	94	10	1	0	1	8	53	1	4	1	106	184	149	333	43	240	51	8	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	239	210	29	5	1	3	22	109	3	17	4	138	230	214	444	76	246	46	9	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	76	64	16	4	2	3	11	29	0	4	0	250	360	516	876	266	392	38	14	389	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	162	149	15	1	1	3	10	89	1	3	0	101	163	181	344	81	208	55	6	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	46	41	5	0	1	1	5	19	0	2	0	122	217	244	461	122	182	41	11	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	20	17	1	0	0	0	3	13	0	2	0	59	200	59	259		364	65	15	155	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	122	108	19	3	1	4	11	51	0	4	0	176	252	333	585	157	254	42	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Gold	—	119	105	27	4	1	0	12	42	0	1	1	257	333	314	648	57	422	35	10	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics Gold	—	119	97	35	6	1	0	20	29	0	1	1	361	470	443	913	82	507	24	17	409	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	38	34	1	0	0	0	2	26	2	0	0	29	132	29	161		125	68	5	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	—	38	32	6	1	1	1	4	18	2	0	0	188	316	375	691	188	385	47	11	315	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	385	324	43	6	1	4	44	219	8	47	8	133	253	194	447	62	368	57	11	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	—	385	302	54	8	1	5	66	163	8	47	8	179	340	262	602	83	353	42	17	287	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	60	51	4	0	0	0	9	36	0	4	2	78	217	78	295		267	60	15	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	60	45	6	0	0	0	15	27	0	4	2	133	350	133	483		333	45	25	265	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	384	344	45	7	1	4	31	186	5	23	7	131	213	192	405	61	259	48	8	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A RAW	3 teams	—	384	328	60	10	2	6	47	143	5	23	7	183	295	280	575	98	295	37	12	268	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	284	254	37	6	4	7	26	137	1	9	0	146	228	283	511	138	268	48	9	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	284	241	43	6	4	9	39	112	1	9	0	178	295	349	644	170	279	39	14	291	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	142	125	20	3	1	4	14	64	0	6	0	160	245	296	541	136	271	45	10	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	142	119	26	4	2	5	20	51	0	6	0	218	331	412	743	193	323	36	14	326	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Gold	—	119	106	27	4	1	0	12	42	0	1	1	255	333	311	645	57	409	35	10	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	38	34	1	0	0	0	2	26	2	0	0	29	132	29	161		287	68	5	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	385	330	43	6	1	4	44	219	8	47	8	130	253	191	444	61	324	57	11	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	60	51	4	0	0	0	9	36	0	4	2	78	217	78	295		278	60	15	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	384	345	45	7	1	4	31	186	5	23	7	130	213	191	404	61	253	48	8	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	284	255	37	6	4	7	26	137	1	9	0	145	228	282	510	137	253	48	9	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	142	127	20	3	1	4	14	64	0	6	0	157	245	291	536	134	269	45	10	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	384	345	45	7	1	4	31	186	5	23	7	130	213	191	404	61	253	48	8	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	284	255	37	6	4	7	26	137	1	9	0	145	228	282	510	137	253	48	9	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	142	127	20	3	1	4	14	64	0	6	0	157	245	291	536	134	269	45	10	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	200	179	29	5	2	4	18	84	1	5	1	160	240	274	513	114	264	42	9	235	45	-13	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	162	242	281	523	119	265	0	0	239	45	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	26%	262	236	38	7	2	5	23	108	1	7	1	163	243	278	521	115	265	41	9	238	47	-16	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.9
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	26%	68	62	11	2	1	2	6	28	0	2	0	165	245	285	530	120	267	41	9	242	47	-4	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	68	62	11	2	1	2	6	28	0	2	0	177	250	339	589	161	281	41	9	242	34	-4	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	105	19	10	19	57	268	0	19	0	177	249	339	588	162	281	41	9	242	34	-41	+4	+0	+2	+14	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	1844	1625	239	37	11	28	176	889	18	101	20	147	238	235	473	88	291	48	10	218	34	-27	+1	+0	+2	+9	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	84	13	4	10	62	313	6	36	7	147	237	236	473	89	289	48	10	218	34	-41	+2	+0	+2	+14	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marcus Smith (OGILVIE)	26	20	40	45	45	158/238/271	113	264	4	4	42%	9%	45	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	33→29	46→45	50	44	177/252/305	128	250	14	12	34%	9%	57	-1.8	191/267/316	125	270	14	12	33%	8%	65	-1.2	158/246/282	125	211	17	12	33%	9%	49	-1.2
✕Scott Hurst 2022 · AAA	26	39→32	39→40	43→50	39	188/247/271	83	296	7	8	37%	7%	47	-2.5	223/298/326	103	303	10	19	28%	9%	79	-0.2	241/324/345	105	302	11	25	23%	10%	89	+0.3
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→30	40→45	48→60	36	177/240/265	88	277	7	11	37%	6%	44	-2.8	185/267/299	114	279	11	21	35%	9%	61	-1.5	178/268/298	120	261	12	28	34%	10%	60	-0.9
✕Seth Gray 2023 · AA	25	37	44→40	47→50	37	185/261/292	108	298	13	8	40%	7%	59	-1.7	210/285/316	106	342	11	13	38%	8%	72	-0.7	210/293/305	96	350	10	19	39%	9%	70	-0.5
✕Bryan Arias 2023 · AA	26	38	43→45	51→50	41	189/264/294	105	291	11	14	37%	8%	59	-1.6	201/274/303	102	294	9	14	32%	8%	65	-1.2	190/290/284	94	249	9	24	25%	10%	64	-0.3
✕Cody Bohanek 2022 · AAA	27	36	44→40	49→50	41	177/276/292	115	287	11	16	39%	8%	65	-1.2	187/276/282	95	307	7	15	38%	8%	62	-1.4	151/250/213	62	271	3	16	40%	8%	35	-1.6
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→39	43→50	47→55	38	183/247/296	112	267	11	13	34%	6%	53	-2.1	201/262/336	135	294	15	19	35%	6%	68	-1.0	197/259/326	130	285	15	24	35%	6%	62	-1.1
✕McCarthy Tatum 2022 · AA	26	33→25	41→50	45→50	35	170/234/264	94	274	10	6	40%	6%	41	-3.0	198/254/313	115	283	11	10	33%	5%	60	-1.6	196/248/320	125	268	11	11	30%	4%	56	-0.6
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	36	44→45	47→45	44	181/259/292	111	272	12	9	36%	9%	57	-1.8	177/261/302	125	271	15	6	38%	10%	61	-1.5	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Corey Ray 2021 · AAA	26	39→37	47→50	52→55	35	194/251/329	136	317	15	17	42%	6%	62	-1.4	202/246/344	142	304	16	12	37%	5%	63	-1.3	182/220/330	149	262	17	13	37%	4%	48	-1.0
✕Aaron Shackelford 2023 · AAA	26	33→32	51→50	50→45	36	185/239/342	157	266	20	8	38%	6%	61	-1.5	190/257/325	135	287	15	10	37%	7%	64	-1.3	166/255/281	116	248	12	10	36%	9%	52	-1.5
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA	26	40	42→40	48→50	45	193/287/295	103	289	10	10	34%	9%	70	-0.9	192/283/307	115	279	12	11	33%	10%	70	-0.8	124/235/230	107	167	13	9	33%	11%	35	-1.2
✕Ryan Aguilar 2022 · AA	27	36→40	42→45	51→50	41	175/259/268	94	291	11	13	41%	9%	53	-2.1	205/294/329	124	325	13	13	37%	10%	79	-0.2	214/314/364	150	322	16	13	35%	11%	91	+0.4
✕Seth Fortenberry 2010 · AA	26	36→41	43→45	51→50	42	182/255/296	114	271	11	10	35%	8%	57	-1.8	190/253/290	100	306	7	9	37%	7%	53	-2.1	154/208/242	88	288	0	4	44%	6%	22	-0.8
✕C.J. Stubbs 2024 · AA	27	31	47→45	50	36	162/242/292	130	279	16	16	45%	7%	52	-2.2	166/250/282	116	282	14	10	43%	8%	53	-2.1	141/230/247	106	238	14	6	44%	8%	35	-1.4
✕Zach Watson 2023 · AA	26	36→33	44→45	51→50	32	185/225/299	115	282	13	13	39%	4%	45	-2.7	196/242/313	117	288	12	15	35%	5%	55	-2.0	167/210/287	121	227	14	24	33%	4%	35	-1.2
✕Connor Kopach 2021 · AAA	26	39→32	44→45	54→55	37	192/252/308	116	294	12	18	37%	6%	57	-1.8	187/254/289	102	354	10	16	46%	7%	55	-2.0	111/190/186	75	238	11	21	54%	8%	6	-1.6
✕Craig Dedelow 2022 · AA	27	35	47→50	44→45	36	184/239/318	134	278	15	5	39%	6%	55	-1.9	186/258/330	144	325	17	11	45%	8%	65	-1.2	157/239/305	148	280	19	14	48%	8%	51	-2.1
✕Brady Lindsly 2024 · AAA	26	40	42→40	51→40	40	195/259/289	94	299	11	7	37%	8%	56	-1.9	200/260/291	91	303	8	7	34%	7%	56	-1.9	192/241/266	74	288	5	2	34%	6%	40	-1.2
✕Brett Auerbach 2024 · AA	25	36→34	44→45	50→55	37	186/243/297	111	279	13	19	37%	6%	52	-2.2	214/278/321	107	308	9	14	31%	7%	70	-0.8	228/299/342	114	318	8	12	29%	8%	79	-0.1