Marcus Smith — OGILVIE

Marcus SmithCF Dayton Dragons

Age 25 L/L 5'11" / 185 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 242 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†34

AVG/OBP/SLG.151 / .225 / .265

PA242

HR6

SB6

K%46

BB%8

BABIP262

ISO114

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Athletics Gold	—	119	105	27	4	1	0	12	42	0	1	1	257	333	314	648	57	422	35	10	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	AZL Athletics Gold	—	119	97	35	6	1	0	20	29	0	1	1	361	470	443	913	82	507	24	17	409	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	38	34	1	0	0	0	2	27	2	0	0	29	132	29	161		143	71	5	149	-28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	38	32	6	1	1	1	4	18	2	0	0	188	316	375	691	188	385	47	11	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	385	329	42	5	1	4	39	225	8	47	8	128	237	185	422	58	362	58	10	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	385	302	54	8	1	5	66	163	8	47	8	179	340	262	602	83	353	42	17	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	60	50	3	0	0	0	10	38	0	4	2	60	217	60	277		250	63	17	164	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	60	45	6	0	0	0	15	27	0	4	2	133	350	133	483		333	45	25	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	3 teams	—	384	345	45	7	1	4	30	190	5	23	7	130	211	191	402	61	265	49	8	192	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	3 teams	—	384	328	60	10	2	6	47	143	5	23	7	183	295	280	575	98	295	37	12	268	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	3 teams	—	284	254	36	6	4	7	26	145	1	9	0	142	224	280	504	138	279	51	9	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	3 teams	—	284	241	43	6	4	9	39	112	1	9	0	178	295	349	644	170	279	39	14	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	A+	CIN	—	48	44	8	0	0	3	2	26	0	1	0	182	217	386	604	205	312	54	4	251	50	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
YTD	25	A+	CIN	—	48	43	11	0	0	4	3	19	0	1	0	256	304	535	839	279	333	40	6	349	125	+1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.3
ROS	25	A+	CIN	0%	242	219	33	5	1	6	20	111	1	6	1	151	225	265	490	114	268	46	8	229	34	-18	+1	+0	+1	+7	-1.0
ROS	25	MLB	CIN	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						270	0	0	228	32	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	A+	CIN	—	49	45	8	0	0	3	2	26	0	1	0	178	213	378	591	200	294	53	4	251	50	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
TOT	25	A+	CIN	—	290	263	41	5	1	9	22	137	1	7	1	156	224	285	509	129	269	47	8	233	36	-21	+1	+0	+1	+8	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	CIN	30%	338	305	50	8	2	9	28	147	2	8	1	164	239	292	531	128	274	43	8	241	43	-22	+1	+0	+1	+10	-1.0
2028	27	MLB	CIN	42%	367	331	56	9	2	10	31	154	2	9	2	169	245	299	544	130	276	42	8	247	47	-22	+1	+0	+1	+10	-0.9
2029	28	MLB	CIN	48%	384	345	60	10	2	10	33	158	3	9	2	174	252	301	553	128	276	41	9	250	50	-22	+1	-1	+1	+11	-0.9
2027	26	MLB	CIN	30%	102	92	17	3	1	3	8	44	1	2	0	185	257	337	594	152	276	43	8	239	41	-7	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.3
2028	27	MLB	CIN	42%	153	138	24	4	1	4	13	64	1	4	1	174	250	304	554	130	278	42	8	245	46	-9	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
2029	28	MLB	CIN	48%	183	164	29	5	1	5	16	75	1	4	1	177	254	311	565	134	279	41	9	248	48	-11	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	439	395	70	12	3	12	37	183	3	10	2	177	253	314	567	137	286	42	8	245	46	-27	+1	-0	+2	+12	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	104	18	4	18	55	271	4	15	3	178	253	315	567	137	287	42	8	245	46	-40	+2	-0	+2	+18	-1.8
Career	—			—	2601	2317	353	54	14	50	231	1237	24	116	24	152	236	252	489	100	289	48	9	226	31	-202	+14	-1	+9	+74	-10.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	87	13	3	12	58	309	6	29	6	150	235	245	480	95	285	48	9	226	31	-50	+3	-0	+2	+18	-2.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Athletics Gold	—	119	97	35	6	1	0	20	29	0	1	1	361	470	443	913	82	507	24	17	409	171	+10	-0	—	—	+3	1.3
2021	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	38	32	6	1	1	1	4	18	2	0	0	188	316	375	691	188	385	47	11	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	21	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	385	302	54	8	1	5	66	163	8	47	8	179	340	262	602	83	353	42	17	287	78	-10	+6	—	—	+11	0.8
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	60	45	6	0	0	0	15	27	0	4	2	133	350	133	483		333	45	25	265	61	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	42	39	6	1	0	0	2	21	1	2	2	154	214	179	394	26	333	50	5	189	3	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2024	23	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	103	89	16	2	0	2	13	40	1	4	1	180	291	270	561	90	298	39	13	266	62	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	23	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	239	200	38	7	2	4	32	82	3	17	4	190	311	305	616	115	288	34	13	283	75	-7	+2	—	—	+7	0.2
2025	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	76	60	17	4	2	4	15	26	0	4	0	283	427	617	1.043	333	419	34	20	441	195	+8	+1	—	—	+2	1.1
2025	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	162	143	20	2	1	4	16	71	1	3	0	140	231	252	483	112	232	44	10	223	29	-13	+1	—	—	+5	-0.8
2025	24	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	46	38	6	0	1	1	8	15	0	2	0	158	304	289	594	132	227	33	17	280	73	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	440	11	10	171	245	299	+2	+2	-1.1	-0.6
	/162	664	17	15	171	245	299	+2.4	+3.8	-1.7	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marcus Smith (OGILVIE)	25	20	40	45	45	156/224/285	129	269	9	7	47%	8%	36	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Seth Gray 2023 · AA	25	37→36	45	47→50	37	182/259/294	113	303	14	8	42%	7%	53	-1.5	208/285/315	107	351	11	13	40%	8%	69	-0.4	209/294/304	95	361	9	19	40%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Justin Toerner 2022 · AAA	25	39	44→45	45→50	43	191/276/301	110	289	13	8	36%	9%	62	-0.9	187/281/300	113	283	12	11	35%	10%	64	-0.8	162/269/266	104	242	12	12	35%	10%	50	-0.8
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	37→34	41→40	48→50	40	186/251/287	100	259	9	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	205/270/324	119	291	11	14	32%	7%	64	-0.8	182/254/327	145	270	14	20	36%	6%	54	-0.3
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	33→28	45	49→50	42	177/246/290	113	244	14	18	33%	7%	46	-2.0	206/279/324	118	280	13	12	29%	9%	68	-0.5	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Scott Hurst 2022 · AAA	26	37→31	40	43→50	37	182/237/266	85	290	8	8	38%	7%	34	-2.8	216/287/322	106	294	11	19	28%	8%	70	-0.3	228/308/337	109	285	13	25	23%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Jameson Fisher 2019 · AA	25	38→36	41→45	41→45	42	188/262/288	99	281	9	6	34%	8%	52	-1.6	194/259/295	101	293	9	6	34%	7%	52	-1.6	194/254/298	105	283	10	4	33%	7%	48	-1.4
✕Ross Adolph 2022 · AA	25	41→32	45→40	44→50	37	193/271/314	121	331	13	8	42%	7%	63	-0.9	206/305/328	122	373	12	11	43%	9%	82	+0.5	182/314/280	98	357	8	16	44%	12%	72	-0.1
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→29	40→45	48→60	36	176/240/269	93	284	8	11	39%	6%	37	-2.6	186/269/308	122	285	12	21	36%	9%	60	-1.0	181/273/314	133	265	15	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	35→34	45→50	47→50	37	180/243/296	116	289	13	11	40%	7%	46	-2.0	189/248/293	104	291	9	10	36%	7%	46	-2.0	146/203/235	89	219	3	6	33%	7%	8	-1.2
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA	25	37→39	42→45	47→50	38	186/242/289	103	277	10	12	35%	6%	43	-2.2	197/252/301	104	308	9	13	37%	6%	50	-1.8	206/260/308	103	297	8	9	32%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→37	44→50	47→55	38	184/248/300	115	271	12	13	35%	6%	49	-1.8	201/261/346	145	293	17	19	36%	6%	66	-0.6	197/258/338	141	284	18	24	36%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	34	40→45	50→45	38	172/234/264	91	270	8	7	38%	7%	33	-2.9	198/262/311	113	286	10	8	32%	7%	57	-1.2	182/252/296	114	256	10	5	31%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Kody Eaves 2018 · AAA	25	39→43	45	48→50	39	198/250/325	127	280	12	10	33%	6%	56	-1.3	190/241/299	109	273	10	7	32%	6%	45	-2.1	172/224/272	100	248	9	4	33%	6%	29	-2.3
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	34→29	46→50	50	43	180/253/311	131	257	14	12	35%	8%	54	-1.4	199/273/346	147	278	18	12	33%	8%	72	-0.2	173/257/338	165	221	24	12	34%	9%	60	-0.5
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA	25	38	40→45	45→50	44	181/274/268	88	287	8	7	37%	9%	53	-1.5	196/278/301	105	300	9	11	35%	8%	62	-0.9	171/260/279	108	256	10	13	35%	9%	46	-1.0
✕Drew Mendoza 2022 · AA	24	38→31	41→40	47→40	40	180/263/273	93	302	10	7	40%	8%	50	-1.8	183/247/269	86	307	8	6	40%	7%	40	-2.4	156/214/223	67	262	6	2	41%	7%	11	-2.9
✕Marty Bechina 2022 · AAA	25	34→33	47→50	48→45	30	178/225/314	135	284	15	8	42%	4%	43	-2.2	194/265/328	134	314	15	9	40%	7%	64	-0.8	172/260/302	130	280	15	8	41%	8%	52	-1.1
✕Jonathan Engelmann 2022 · AA	25	37	45	47→45	41	189/259/305	116	274	13	9	34%	7%	55	-1.4	197/263/332	135	295	15	9	36%	7%	63	-0.8	145/214/301	156	204	19	9	39%	6%	31	-0.8
✕Jake Lowery 2016 · AA	26	35	45	47→30	43	183/250/307	124	260	13	4	34%	8%	51	-1.7	187/258/294	107	293	10	5	37%	8%	51	-1.7	118/199/170	52	253	3	0	50%	9%	-6	-1.3
✕Bryan Arias 2022 · AA	25	38	46→45	48→50	39	192/260/314	122	300	15	13	39%	7%	58	-1.2	190/264/289	99	300	9	14	37%	8%	53	-1.5	174/258/264	90	276	8	17	37%	8%	42	-0.9