Marcus Smith — OGILVIE

Marcus SmithCF Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 L/L 5'11" / 185 lbs AA K +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

wRC+†29

AVG/OBP/SLG.148 / .225 / .256

PA290

HR6

SB7

K%49

BB%8

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20→20

PWR

40→40

SPD

45→45

EYE

51↘45

trajectory · 10 yrs

-1.1peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-15M		$-43M	-$27M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$27M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Athletics Gold	119	105	27	4	1	0	12	42	0	1	1	.257	.333	.314	.648	.057	.422	35	10	.288	79	-3	-0	+0	+0	+3	0.1
2021	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	38	34	1	0	0	0	2	27	2	0	0	.029	.132	.029	.161	.000	.143	71	5	.142	-33	-6	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.5
2022	21	A	Down East Wood Ducks	385	327	40	5	1	4	41	229	8	47	8	.122	.237	.180	.417	.058	.364	59	11	.196	8	-40	+6	+0	+1	+11	-2.2
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	60	51	4	0	0	0	9	36	0	4	2	.078	.217	.078	.295	.000	.267	60	15	.165	-15	-8	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.6
2024	23	A	3 teams	384	345	45	7	1	5	30	192	5	23	7	.130	.211	.200	.411	.070	.263	50	8	.187	1	-43	+2	+0	+1	+11	-2.9
2025	24	AA	3 teams	284	254	33	5	3	7	26	146	1	9	0	.130	.214	.256	.469	.126	.252	51	9	.212	21	-26	+2	+0	+1	+8	-1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	TEX	290	262	40	7	2	6	24	143	2	7	1	.153	.229	.263	.493	.111	.288	49	8	.223	29	-23	+1	+0	+1	+8	-1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	TEX	338	304	48	8	2	8	29	158	2	7	2	.158	.236	.276	.512	.118	.289	47	9	.235	38	-24	+1	+0	+1	+10	-1.3
2028	27	MLB 26%	TEX	367	329	55	10	2	9	32	165	3	8	2	.167	.247	.292	.539	.125	.290	45	9	.242	43	-24	+1	+0	+1	+10	-1.1
2029	28	MLB 38%	TEX	384	344	58	10	2	9	34	169	3	7	1	.169	.249	.288	.537	.119	.290	44	9	.245	45	-24	+1	-1	+1	+11	-1.1
2030	29	MLB 47%	TEX	388	348	58	10	2	9	34	170	3	6	1	.167	.247	.284	.531	.118	.289	44	9	.245	45	-24	+1	-1	+1	+11	-1.2
2031	30	MLB 56%	TEX	389	349	58	10	2	9	34	172	3	6	1	.166	.246	.284	.530	.117	.287	44	9	.241	43	-25	+1	-2	+1	+11	-1.4
2032	31	MLB 73%	TEX	377	338	55	10	2	8	33	168	3	4	0	.163	.243	.275	.518	.112	.285	45	9	.238	40	-26	+1	-3	+1	+11	-1.6
2033	32	MLB 91%	TEX	360	323	51	9	2	7	32	162	2	3	0	.158	.238	.263	.501	.105	.283	45	9	.233	37	-26	+1	-4	+1	+10	-1.8
2034	33	MLB	TEX	332	298	46	8	2	6	29	152	2	2	0	.154	.234	.255	.489	.101	.281	46	9	.228	33	-25	+0	-4	+1	+9	-1.9
2035	34	MLB	TEX	289	260	39	7	1	5	25	135	2	2	0	.150	.230	.242	.472	.092	.279	47	9	.222	28	-24	+0	-5	+1	+8	-1.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4784	4271	658	110	25	92	426	2266	41	136	26	.154	.237	.256	.494	.102	.291	47	9	.227	32	-368	+17	-20	+17	+136	-22.3
/ 162G	—			650	580	89	15	3	12	58	308	6	18	4	.153	.238	.252	.489	.098	.292	47	9	.227	32	-50	+2	-3	+2	+18	-3.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Athletics Gold	119	97	35	6	1	0	20	29	0	1	1	.361	.470	.443	.913	.082	.507	24	17	.409	171	+10	-0	—	—	+3	1.3
2021	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	38	32	6	1	1	1	4	18	2	0	0	.188	.316	.375	.691	.188	.385	47	11	.315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	21	A	Down East Wood Ducks	385	302	54	8	1	5	66	163	8	47	8	.179	.340	.262	.602	.083	.353	42	17	.287	78	-10	+6	—	—	+11	0.8
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	60	45	6	0	0	0	15	27	0	4	2	.133	.350	.133	.483	.000	.333	45	25	.265	61	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	42	39	6	1	0	0	2	21	1	2	2	.154	.214	.179	.394	.026	.333	50	5	.189	3	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2024	23	A+	Hickory Crawdads	103	89	16	2	0	2	13	40	1	4	1	.180	.291	.270	.561	.090	.298	39	13	.266	62	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	23	A	Down East Wood Ducks	239	200	38	7	2	4	32	82	3	17	4	.190	.311	.305	.616	.115	.288	34	13	.283	75	-7	+2	—	—	+7	0.2
2025	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	76	60	17	4	2	4	15	26	0	4	0	.283	.427	.617	1.043	.333	.419	34	20	.441	195	+8	+1	—	—	+2	1.1
2025	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	162	143	20	2	1	4	16	71	1	3	0	.140	.231	.252	.483	.112	.232	44	10	.223	29	-13	+1	—	—	+5	-0.8
2025	24	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	46	38	6	0	1	1	8	15	0	2	0	.158	.304	.289	.594	.132	.227	33	17	.280	73	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marcus Smith (OGILVIE)	25	20	40	45	45	.148/.225/.256	.108	.288	6	7	49%	8%	29	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Seth Gray 2023 · AA	25	38	44→45	47→50	38	.186/.263/.294	.108	.300	13	8	40%	7%	54	-1.4	.205/.282/.312	.107	.343	12	13	40%	8%	66	-0.6	.202/.287/.300	.098	.353	11	19	41%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	38→36	41→40	48→50	40	.191/.255/.290	.099	.266	9	14	31%	6%	49	-1.8	.203/.269/.317	.114	.286	10	15	31%	6%	62	-0.9	.179/.252/.313	.134	.265	12	20	35%	6%	50	-0.4
✕Marty Bechina 2022 · AAA	25	35→34	45	47→45	31	.179/.230/.302	.123	.296	13	8	42%	5%	41	-2.3	.186/.258/.305	.119	.310	12	9	41%	7%	55	-1.4	.167/.257/.278	.111	.280	12	8	41%	8%	44	-1.4
✕Scott Hurst 2022 · AAA	26	38→31	39→40	43→50	39	.185/.242/.267	.083	.288	7	7	37%	7%	37	-2.7	.221/.294/.329	.108	.299	11	19	28%	8%	76	+0.0	.239/.321/.353	.114	.297	13	25	23%	9%	89	+0.6
✕Cadyn Grenier 2022 · AAA	25	40→37	42→40	48→50	39	.191/.265/.291	.100	.313	9	10	39%	8%	54	-1.4	.196/.279/.296	.100	.292	8	13	33%	9%	61	-1.0	.175/.272/.270	.095	.250	7	16	30%	10%	50	-1.1
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→29	40→45	48→55	36	.179/.243/.270	.091	.285	8	11	38%	6%	39	-2.5	.186/.268/.305	.119	.285	12	20	36%	9%	59	-1.1	.181/.273/.314	.132	.266	14	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Brenden Webb 2015 · A	25	36→37	44→45	48→50	39	.180/.250/.300	.120	.295	12	9	41%	8%	50	-1.8	.191/.245/.294	.103	.301	10	12	38%	6%	45	-2.1	.184/.232/.281	.097	.278	11	16	37%	5%	33	-1.8
✕Drew Mendoza 2022 · AA	24	38→31	42→40	47→40	41	.186/.265/.281	.095	.297	10	7	38%	8%	52	-1.6	.180/.240/.268	.088	.295	9	6	39%	7%	37	-2.7	.152/.203/.224	.072	.246	8	2	40%	6%	7	-3.1
✕Kody Eaves 2018 · AAA	25	40→43	45	48→50	39	.201/.253/.327	.126	.283	13	10	33%	6%	57	-1.2	.196/.248/.311	.115	.279	11	7	32%	6%	51	-1.7	.178/.231/.286	.108	.255	10	4	33%	6%	35	-1.9
✕Jameson Fisher 2019 · AA	25	40→36	41→45	42→45	41	.194/.264/.293	.099	.285	9	6	33%	7%	53	-1.5	.196/.261/.298	.102	.295	10	5	34%	7%	53	-1.5	.200/.262/.311	.111	.288	11	4	33%	7%	55	-1.0
✕Kyle McCann 2022 · AA	24	35→33	44→50	48→40	36	.168/.245/.281	.113	.310	13	5	47%	8%	43	-2.2	.196/.270/.351	.155	.325	21	4	43%	8%	72	-0.2	.202/.277/.366	.164	.320	23	2	42%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Alex McKenna 2023 · AAA	25	42→38	43→40	50	39	.193/.269/.303	.110	.330	11	14	42%	8%	59	-1.1	.200/.274/.306	.106	.335	10	11	40%	8%	61	-1.0	.167/.251/.258	.090	.289	10	3	42%	9%	36	-0.8
✕Brady Lindsly 2023 · AA	25	38	42→40	49→40	37	.189/.248/.288	.099	.300	11	5	39%	7%	45	-2.1	.195/.255/.290	.095	.302	10	6	36%	7%	49	-1.8	.189/.251/.272	.083	.287	9	5	35%	7%	40	-1.0
✕Mike Peabody 2023 · A	24	37	44→45	47→50	36	.186/.256/.298	.111	.288	12	12	38%	6%	53	-1.5	.195/.262/.305	.110	.289	12	12	35%	6%	56	-1.3	.178/.246/.285	.106	.257	12	12	34%	5%	41	-1.1
✕Dylan Rosa 2021 · AA	25	38→31	44→45	49→45	37	.192/.247/.304	.112	.288	12	9	36%	6%	49	-1.8	.192/.246/.327	.135	.337	16	8	45%	6%	55	-1.4	.158/.215/.300	.142	.290	19	6	50%	5%	32	-1.0
✕Steve Bumbry 2013 · AA	25	41→43	42→45	46→50	39	.194/.261/.306	.112	.314	8	11	38%	8%	56	-1.3	.200/.267/.326	.126	.325	13	9	39%	8%	63	-0.8	.172/.245/.314	.142	.269	20	4	42%	8%	50	-0.6
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA	25	38	40→45	45→50	44	.183/.273/.272	.089	.281	8	7	35%	9%	53	-1.5	.192/.275/.296	.104	.296	10	10	35%	9%	59	-1.1	.166/.255/.274	.108	.249	11	13	35%	9%	43	-1.1
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	45→50	48→50	37	.186/.248/.306	.120	.290	14	12	39%	7%	50	-1.7	.185/.245/.287	.102	.286	9	10	36%	7%	43	-2.2	.153/.212/.244	.092	.224	3	6	32%	7%	14	-1.0
✕Jeremy Eierman 2022 · AA	25	35→26	46→55	49→45	32	.179/.235/.308	.128	.302	15	11	44%	5%	46	-2.0	.183/.237/.338	.155	.288	21	9	43%	5%	54	-1.4	.154/.206/.301	.147	.224	23	6	42%	5%	29	-1.3
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	39→33	44→45	48→45	42	.196/.263/.315	.118	.271	12	9	31%	7%	59	-1.1	.204/.262/.318	.114	.295	12	7	33%	7%	59	-1.1	.195/.242/.316	.121	.282	13	0	35%	5%	50	-0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)