C.J. Stubbs

C Buffalo Bisons
Age 30 R/R 6'2" / 207 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202427AAA/AAWSH300.187/.315/.3358439—.144/.245/.250
202528AAA/AAWSH266.169/.294/.3168429—.124/.223/.220
202629AAA/ROKTOR198.214/.310/.39910239—.156/.229/.267
2027PROJ10% MLB30MLBTOR13.170/.252/.2880053-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB31MLBTOR33.170/.250/.2841052-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV99
BB%66
Speed37
Whiff%16
Chase%10
Z-Con%9
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%
CompsJeff Arnold (age 30) · Kevin Cash (age 30) · Caleb Hamilton (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†53
AVG/OBP/SLG.170 / .252 / .288
PA13
HR0
K%38
BB%8
BABIP262
ISO103
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +2.3 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +2.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.2-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025
CONTACT20
scouting grade only
POWER30
Bat Spd
7874.3
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201922 AQuad Cities River Bandits — 6258 19504 3151 22 328371621992 293385 245 429 98 — — — — — —
202124 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 9784 16300 10273 22 190299226525 36281 2810 256 24 — — — — — —
202124 A+Asheville Tourists — 280253 5815312 231042 64 229299455753 225331 378 328 26 — — — — — —
202225 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 158133 282211 17606 81 211327504831 293266 3811 359 55 — — — — — —
202225 A+Asheville Tourists — 167138 305010 24684 61 217349471820 254328 4114 362 35 — — — — — —
202326 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 370316 6216014 4213212 155 196314380693 184282 3611 316 36 — — — — — —
202427 AAARochester Red Wings — 3122 4300 7122 00 182419318738 136400 3923 358 70 — — — — — —
202427 AAHarrisburg Senators — 269229 431008 279711 40 188303336640 148280 3610 294 35 — — — — — —
202528 AAARochester Red Wings — 11091 19316 11357 21 209339462801 253255 3210 354 68 — — — — — —
202528 AAHarrisburg Senators — 156134 19402 19623 21 142263216479 75243 4012 234 1 — — — — — —
202629 AAABuffalo Bisons — 182159 32108 22671 20 201302358661 157286 3712 301 31 — — — — — —
202629 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 1614 5102 140 00 3574008571.257 500333 256 497 128 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201922 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 6259 14303 2201 22 237274441715 203326 323 313 98 — — — — — —
202124 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 9787 13200 7343 22 149237172410 23262 357 204 24 — — — — — —
202124 A+ MLEAsheville Tourists — 280261 38927 151412 64 146198276474 130263 505 207 26 — — — — — —
202225 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 158139 20127 11776 81 144237331568 187216 497 249 55 — — — — — —
202225 A+ MLEAsheville Tourists — 167147 18207 15964 61 122223279502 156237 579 220 35 — — — — — —
202326 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 370330 471308 2815412 155 142235255490 112229 428 221 36 — — — — — —
202427 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 3124 3200 5152 00 125323208531 83346 4816 271 70 — — — — — —
202427 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 269239 35806 1711711 40 146236255491 109244 436 220 35 — — — — — —
202528 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 11094 15214 8417 21 160275330605 170209 377 269 68 — — — — — —
202528 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 156141 14301 12763 21 99186142328 43212 498 169 1 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 182166 25105 15801 20 151225247472 96247 448 214 31 — — — — — —
202629 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 1614 3101 160 00 214267500767 286232 386 358 128 — — — — — —
201922 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 6259 14303 2201 22 237274441715 203306 323 313 98 — — — — — —
201922 A RAWQuad Cities River Bandits — 6258 19504 3151 22 328371621992 293385 245 429 98 — — — — — —
202124 A+ MLE2 teams — 377348 511127 221755 86 147208250458 103262 466 206 26 — — — — — —
202124 A+ RAW2 teams — 377337 7418312 331315 86 220299398696 178316 359 310 26 — — — — — —
202225 A+ MLE2 teams — 325286 394214 2617310 142 136233311544 175245 538 234 45 — — — — — —
202225 A+ RAW2 teams — 325271 587221 4112810 142 214339487826 273296 3913 361 45 — — — — — —
202326 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 370330 471308 2815412 155 142235255490 112232 428 221 36 — — — — — —
202326 AA RAWCorpus Christi Hooks — 370316 6216014 4213212 155 196314380693 184282 3611 316 36 — — — — — —
202427 AA MLE2 teams — 300263 381006 2213213 40 144245251496 106254 447 225 39 — — — — — —
202427 AA RAW2 teams — 300251 471308 3410913 40 187315335650 147289 3611 300 39 — — — — — —
202528 AA MLE2 teams — 266235 30516 2011710 42 128226234460 106212 448 210 29 — — — — — —
202528 AA RAW2 teams — 266225 38718 309710 42 169294316610 147248 3611 284 29 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLE2 teams — 198181 28106 15861 20 155223260483 105244 438 226 39 — — — — — —
202629 AAA RAW2 teams — 198173 372010 23711 20 214310399708 185290 3612 317 39 — — — — — —
201922 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 6259 14303 2201 22 237274441715 203326 323 313 98 — — — — — —
202124 A+ MLE2 teams — 377347 511127 221755 86 147208251459 104263 466 206 26 — — — — — —
202225 A+ MLE2 teams — 325286 394214 2617310 142 136233311544 175227 538 234 45 — — — — — —
202326 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 370327 471308 2815412 155 144235257492 113229 428 221 36 — — — — — —
202427 AA MLE2 teams — 300262 381006 2213213 40 145245252497 107255 447 225 39 — — — — — —
202528 AA MLE2 teams — 266234 30516 2011710 42 128226235461 107211 448 210 29 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLE2 teams — 198180 28106 15861 20 156223261484 106246 438 226 39 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202427 AA MLE2 teams — 300262 381006 2213213 40 145245252497 107255 447 225 39 — — — — — —
202528 AA MLE2 teams — 266234 30516 2011710 42 128226235461 107211 448 210 29 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLE2 teams — 198180 28106 15861 20 156223261484 106246 438 226 39 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202730 MLB MLETOR 10% 248222 38616 19975 31 170251287538 117260 398 247 53 -14 +0 -0 +4 +5 -0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202730 MLB CTXTOR 10% 1312 1000 150 00 170252288540 118262 388 247 53 -1 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202831 MLB MLETOR 27% 119107 18303 9462 10 170250284534 114259 398 245 52 -7 +0 -3 +2 +3 -0.5
202831 MLB CTXTOR 27% 3329 5101 3131 00 170250284535 114260 399 245 52 -2 +0 -1 +1 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 3329 5101 3131 00 172273310583 138267 399 245 39 -2 +0 -1 +1 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650571 9920020 5925620 00 173274313587 140268 399 245 39 -37 +0 -15 +12 +14 -2.8
Career— MLE — 21481926 28453556 15495457 5217 147232267499 120246 447 226 39 -14 +1 -3 +4 +5 -0.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 8616217 4728917 165 148232269501 122246 447 226 39 -37 +2 -7 +12 +14 -1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 182 PAwOBA .294 → .214 (−80)K% 36.8% → 44.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.81%÷1.000×1.200——44.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.09%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9728.11%
HBP% /PA0.55%—×0.940—×0.9720.50%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.000×0.930×0.992×0.97222.41%
Doubles /BIP1.09%÷1.000×0.830×0.992×0.9720.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.992×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP8.70%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9725.92%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .294 → .214; ISO .157 → .101; BABIP .286 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 16 PAwOBA .514 → .358 (−156)K% 25.0% → 36.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷1.000×1.440——36.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.25%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9403.64%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.000×0.820—×0.94015.42%
Doubles /BIP10.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9406.77%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP20.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.94014.66%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .514 → .358; ISO .500 → .350; BABIP .333 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 156 PAwOBA .226 → .169 (−57)K% 39.7% → 48.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA39.74%÷0.997×1.220——48.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.54%÷0.967×0.700—×0.9588.00%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.850—×0.9581.57%
Singles /BIP18.06%÷1.009×0.970×0.950×0.95815.80%
Doubles /BIP5.56%÷0.887×0.860×0.950×0.9584.90%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.913×0.950×0.950×0.9580.00%
Home runs /BIP2.78%÷0.963×0.780—×0.9582.16%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .226 → .169; ISO .075 → .055; BABIP .243 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 110 PAwOBA .348 → .269 (−79)K% 31.8% → 37.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.82%÷1.028×1.200——37.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷0.978×0.690—×0.9826.93%
HBP% /PA6.36%—×0.940—×0.9825.87%
Singles /BIP16.07%÷0.987×0.930×0.950×0.98214.13%
Doubles /BIP5.36%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×0.9824.15%
Triples /BIP1.79%÷1.150×0.970×0.950×0.9821.41%
Home runs /BIP10.71%÷0.960×0.700—×0.9827.67%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .348 → .269; ISO .253 → .181; BABIP .255 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 269 PAwOBA .288 → .220 (−68)K% 36.1% → 43.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.06%÷1.008×1.220——43.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.04%÷1.051×0.700—×0.9686.47%
HBP% /PA4.09%—×0.850—×0.9683.36%
Singles /BIP18.94%÷1.010×0.970×0.970×0.96817.08%
Doubles /BIP7.58%÷0.964×0.860×0.970×0.9686.35%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.915×0.950×0.970×0.9680.00%
Home runs /BIP6.06%÷0.990×0.780—×0.9684.62%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .288 → .220; ISO .148 → .110; BABIP .280 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 31 PAwOBA .351 → .271 (−80)K% 38.7% → 48.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA38.71%÷0.958×1.200——48.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA22.58%÷0.969×0.690—×0.99215.94%
HBP% /PA6.45%—×0.940—×0.9926.02%
Singles /BIP10.00%÷1.029×0.930—×0.9928.96%
Doubles /BIP30.00%÷0.962×0.830—×0.99225.67%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.986×0.700—×0.9920.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .351 → .271; ISO .136 → .107; BABIP .400 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 370 PAwOBA .308 → .221 (−86)K% 35.7% → 41.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.68%÷1.049×1.220——41.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.35%÷1.011×0.700—×0.9787.69%
HBP% /PA3.24%—×0.870—×0.9782.76%
Singles /BIP17.39%÷1.018×0.920×0.966×0.97814.84%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷0.975×0.840×0.966×0.9787.07%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.058×0.940×0.966×0.9780.00%
Home runs /BIP7.61%÷1.322×0.800—×0.9784.50%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 112, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .308 → .221; ISO .184 → .116; BABIP .282 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Asheville Tourists · 167 PAwOBA .355 → .220 (−135)K% 40.7% → 57.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA40.72%÷0.927×1.310——57.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.37%÷0.933×0.600—×0.9688.95%
HBP% /PA2.40%—×0.770—×0.9681.79%
Singles /BIP21.43%÷1.031×0.870×0.950×0.96816.64%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷1.131×0.780×0.950×0.9684.53%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.850×0.950×0.9680.00%
Home runs /BIP14.29%÷0.972×0.880—×0.96812.52%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 85, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .355 → .220; ISO .254 → .162; BABIP .328 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).