Sebastian Keane — OGILVIE

Sebastian Keane P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 187 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 29 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%20.1%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	2	32	134	43	19	1	10%	1.6	21.8%	18.3%	3.5%	0.9%	2.56	4.09	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	2	32	134	43	19	1	10%	1.6	32.1%	14.2%	17.9%	0.7%	2.56	2.59	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	26	15	82	360	84	41	7	58%	3.2	18.0%	13.1%	4.9%	2.4%	4.61	4.53	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	26	15	82	360	84	41	7	58%	3.2	18.0%	13.1%	4.9%	2.4%	4.61	4.53	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	26	15	82	360	84	41	7	58%	3.2	23.3%	11.4%	11.9%	1.9%	4.61	3.66	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	39	169	38	21	4	4%	1.5	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	2.4%	3.43	4.70	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	39	169	38	21	4	4%	1.5	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	2.4%	3.43	4.70	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	39	169	38	21	4	4%	1.5	22.5%	12.4%	10.1%	2.4%	3.43	4.09	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	NYY	28	0	29	122	25	15	4	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.7%	7.5%	2.9%	5.00	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	33	0	35	147	30	18	4	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.4%	8.1%	3.0%	4.95	4.97	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	12	0	13	55	11	7	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.4%	8.1%	3.0%	4.95	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	11	7	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.4%	8.1%	3.0%	4.95	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	109	31	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.4%	8.1%	3.0%	4.95	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		73	18	153	663	125	96	14	25%	2.1	18.8%	14.5%	4.3%	2.1%	3.88	4.49	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	24	200	867	163	126	18	25%	2.1	18.8%	14.5%	4.3%	2.1%	3.88	4.49	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sebastian Keane (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	20.1%	12.7%	2.9%	—	4.97	20.4%	8.1%	35	-0.03	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	86
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	81
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	81
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	80
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	80
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	80
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	79
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	79
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	78
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	78
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	77
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	77
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	77
Linder Castro R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	18.9%	10.7%	3.2%	.305	5.68	21.1%	6.3%	62	+1.05	4.23	279	77
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	77
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.45	18.9%	6.4%	63	+1.27	1.93	233	76
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	76
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	20.3%	12.5%	1.15	4.97
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44