Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 7.32 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.10 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 15 | 90 | 421 | 102 | 39 | 8 | 58% | 3.5 | 18.1% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 7.50 | 4.56 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 15 | 90 | 421 | 102 | 39 | 8 | 58% | 3.5 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 1.9% | 7.50 | 3.29 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 44 | 190 | 47 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.2% | 13.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.18 | 6.90 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 44 | 190 | 47 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 5.3% | 6.18 | 5.30 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 67 | 287 | 84 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 1.3% | 3.65 | 2.85 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 67 | 287 | 84 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.3% | 8.0% | 21.3% | 2.1% | 3.65 | 2.79 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 55 | 0 | 57 | 269 | 70 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 1.3% | 5.72 | 3.47 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 55 | 0 | 57 | 269 | 70 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 1.5% | 5.72 | 3.24 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 4 | 39 | 167 | 44 | 12 | 3 | 12% | 1.2 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 15.2% | 2.1% | 4.15 | 3.33 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 4 | 39 | 167 | 44 | 12 | 3 | 12% | 1.2 | 26.3% | 7.2% | 19.2% | 1.8% | 4.15 | 2.77 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 9 | 1 | 12 | 63 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 11% | 1.3 | 7.0% | 10.0% | -3.0% | 5.2% | 7.50 | 6.65 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 37 | 167 | 29 | 16 | 6 | — | — | 17.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 5.23 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.3% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 4.12 | 3.74 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 3.61 | 3.79 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 0 | 200 | 852 | 178 | 82 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 3.61 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 201 | 20 | 309 | 1400 | 286 | 151 | 39 | 10% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 5.71 | 4.27 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 13 | 200 | 906 | 185 | 98 | 25 | 10% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 5.71 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Pope (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.12 | 23.4% | 9.8% | 2.5% | — | 4.22 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 24 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.96 | 27.3% | 18.8% | 162 | +0.27 | 2.67 | 382 | 78 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 77 |
| JT Chargois R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.47 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .282 | 3.53 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 108 | +0.06 | 2.59 | 362 | 76 |
| Ty Adcock R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .405 | 4.57 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 37 | +0.73 | 3.84 | 102 | 75 |
| R.J. Alvarez R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.02 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 1.2% | .306 | 4.55 | 24.0% | 12.9% | 89 | +1.53 | 3.02 | 302 | 75 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.40 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.0% | .368 | 3.12 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.28 | 2.35 | 238 | 74 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 74 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .417 | 2.87 | 19.5% | 13.2% | 71 | -1.12 | 1.94 | 143 | 73 |
| Greg Holland R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.21 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.35 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.14 | 1.97 | 268 | 73 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.04 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.4% | .330 | 3.26 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | +0.22 | 2.42 | 125 | 73 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 72 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.08 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.66 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.58 | 3.08 | 124 | 72 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 72 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.05 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .293 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 37 | +1.36 | 3.05 | 205 | 72 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 72 |
| Connor Sadzeck R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.25 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .238 | 4.61 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 94 | +0.36 | 3.22 | 549 | 71 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 71 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.53 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .340 | 3.99 | 21.8% | 13.6% | 94 | +0.46 | 2.67 | 177 | 71 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 71 |
| James Sherfy R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.49 | 27.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .355 | 5.06 | 19.0% | 12.7% | 15 | +1.57 | 2.61 | 271 | 71 |