Tyler Ferguson — OGILVIE

Tyler Ferguson P Iowa Cubs

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA3.90

FIP4.03

K%22.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p7028.5%

p7526.9%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

FB+2.3 (53%)

CT+1.2 (11%)

SL+0.9 (32%)

SI (15%)

CH (4%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	5	0	5	28	5	9	0	0%	0.9	17.9%	32.1%	-14.3%	0.0%	13.50	5.66	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	5	0	5	28	5	9	0	0%	0.9	17.9%	32.1%	-14.3%	0.0%	13.50	6.74	—
2016	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	10	0	13	66	10	18	1	0%	1.3	11.2%	32.2%	-21.0%	1.8%	8.78	7.21	—
2016	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	10	0	13	66	10	18	1	0%	1.3	15.2%	27.3%	-12.1%	1.5%	8.78	6.62	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	48	232	57	24	9	0%	1.3	18.6%	12.0%	6.6%	4.9%	6.61	5.72	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	48	232	57	24	9	0%	1.3	24.6%	10.3%	14.2%	3.9%	6.61	4.67	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	17	75	14	12	0	0%	1.2	13.4%	19.7%	-6.3%	0.0%	4.76	4.46	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	17	75	14	12	0	0%	1.2	18.7%	16.0%	2.7%	0.0%	4.76	3.57	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	32	133	33	12	2	0%	1.5	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	2.9%	2.23	4.15	—
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	32	133	33	12	2	0%	1.5	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	1.5%	2.23	2.98	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	51	241	64	39	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	17.3%	4.8%	0.5%	4.80	3.72	—
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	51	241	64	39	1	0%	1.0	26.6%	16.2%	10.4%	0.4%	4.80	3.14	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	51	3	79	370	86	58	6	6%	1.5	19.3%	14.1%	5.2%	1.8%	5.49	4.23	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	51	3	79	370	86	58	6	6%	1.5	19.3%	14.1%	5.2%	1.8%	5.49	4.23	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	51	3	79	370	86	58	6	6%	1.5	23.2%	15.7%	7.6%	1.6%	5.49	4.12	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	74	0	80	337	105	33	4	0%	1.1	29.0%	9.5%	19.5%	1.3%	3.62	2.57	+1.9
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	74	0	80	337	105	33	4	0%	1.1	29.0%	9.5%	19.5%	1.3%	3.62	2.57	+1.9
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	74	0	80	337	105	33	4	0%	1.1	31.2%	9.8%	21.4%	1.2%	3.62	2.36	+2.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	68	286	65	35	4	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.0%	8.9%	1.7%	4.10	3.81	+0.6
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	68	286	65	35	4	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.0%	8.9%	1.7%	4.10	3.81	+0.6
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	68	286	65	35	4	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.2%	10.5%	1.4%	4.10	3.50	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			122	0	128	531	137	58	14	0%	1.0	25.8%	10.9%	14.9%	2.6%	4.36	3.74	+1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	47	0	51	218	45	18	11	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.6%	11.2%	5.4%	5.44	5.43	-0.5
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	47	0	51	218	45	18	11	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.6%	11.2%	5.4%	5.44	5.43	-0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AAA RAW	CHC	29	0	33	140	24	14	5	0%	1.1	17.1%	10.0%	7.1%	3.6%	5.51	4.88	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	CHC	18	0	19	78	21	4	6	0%	1.0	26.9%	5.1%	21.8%	7.7%	5.30	5.70	-0.3
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	CHC	18	0	19	78	21	4	6	0%	1.0	26.9%	5.1%	21.8%	7.7%	5.30	5.70	-0.3
ROS	32	MLB MLE	CHC	5	0	6	24	5	3	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.8%	11.0%	2.5%	3.90	4.03	+0.0
ROS	32	MLB CTX	CHC	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.8%	11.0%	2.5%	3.90	4.03	+0.0
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	57	242	50	21	12	—	—	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	4.8%	5.28	5.30	-0.5
FULL	32	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	24	102	50	21	12	—	—	49.2%	20.3%	28.9%	11.3%	12.40	7.72	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	CHC	58	0	61	258	62	31	9	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.8%	12.3%	3.4%	4.63	4.79	-0.2
2028	34	MLB MLE	CHC	53	0	56	234	54	29	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	3.7%	4.91	5.09	-0.3
2027	33	MLB CTX	CHC	55	0	58	245	59	29	8	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.8%	12.3%	3.4%	4.63	4.79	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	CHC	48	0	50	211	49	26	8	0%	1.0	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	3.7%	4.91	5.09	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		230	0	242	1011	251	116	31	0%	1.1	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.53	4.12	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	837	208	96	26	0%	1.0	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.53	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		376	3	443	1986	418	264	45	1%	1.2	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.3%	4.89	4.25	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	1	200	896	189	119	20	1%	1.2	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.3%	4.89	4.25	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Ferguson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	24.5%	12.8%	2.4%	—	4.93	23.7%	11.6%	116	+0.59	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	84
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	83
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	81
Joakim Soria R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	32	SU	4.33	23.2%	9.2%	3.7%	.319	2.63	28.5%	21.7%	186	-1.70	2.01	380	81
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	284	80
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	79
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	79
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	79
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	79
David Phelps R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	24.5%	10.9%	3.5%	.289	3.46	26.7%	16.6%	84	-0.89	2.50	373	78
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	77
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	77
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	77
Wade Davis R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	29.9%	10.0%	2.7%	.235	5.00	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.67	2.00	320	77
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	76
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	76
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	76
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	3.20	197	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	24.0%	12.3%	1.21	4.57
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10