Tyler Ferguson

P Iowa Cubs

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX2 levels	74	80	3.62	2.36	31.2%	9.8%	2.1	K 29.4% · BB 9.5% · FIP 2.53
2025	31	MIX2 levels	65	68	4.10	3.50	22.7%	12.2%	0.9	K 22.0% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.81
2026	32	MIX2 levels	48	53	5.30	5.06	21.2%	8.1%	-0.3	K 19.5% · BB 7.5% · FIP 5.30
2027PROJ	33	MLBCHC	47	49	4.57	4.74	23.2%	10.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ91% MLB	34	MLBCHC	26	27	4.85	5.04	22.2%	11.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ86% MLB	35	MLBCHC	13	14	5.17	5.38	21.3%	11.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%75

FB Velo64

xwOBA vs39

CompsJim Henderson (age 33) · Hirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Arcenio Leon (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.57

FIP4.74

K%23.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p7028.5%

p7526.9%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	5	0	5	28	5	9	0	0%	0.9	17.9%	32.1%	-14.3%	0.0%	13.50	5.66	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	5	0	5	28	5	9	0	0%	0.9	17.9%	32.1%	-14.3%	0.0%	13.50	6.74	—
2016	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	10	0	13	66	10	18	1	0%	1.3	11.2%	32.2%	-21.0%	1.8%	8.78	7.21	—
2016	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	10	0	13	66	10	18	1	0%	1.3	15.2%	27.3%	-12.1%	1.5%	8.78	6.62	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	48	232	57	24	9	0%	1.3	18.6%	12.0%	6.6%	4.9%	6.61	5.72	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	48	232	57	24	9	0%	1.3	24.6%	10.3%	14.2%	3.9%	6.61	4.67	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	17	75	14	12	0	0%	1.2	13.4%	19.7%	-6.3%	0.0%	4.76	4.46	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	17	75	14	12	0	0%	1.2	18.7%	16.0%	2.7%	0.0%	4.76	3.57	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	32	133	33	12	2	0%	1.5	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	2.9%	2.23	4.15	—
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	32	133	33	12	2	0%	1.5	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	1.5%	2.23	2.98	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	51	241	64	39	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	17.3%	4.8%	0.5%	4.80	3.72	—
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	51	241	64	39	1	0%	1.0	26.6%	16.2%	10.4%	0.4%	4.80	3.14	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	51	3	79	370	86	58	6	6%	1.5	20.0%	14.1%	5.9%	1.8%	5.49	4.17	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	51	3	79	370	86	58	6	6%	1.5	23.2%	15.7%	7.6%	1.6%	5.49	4.12	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	74	0	80	337	105	33	4	0%	1.1	29.4%	9.5%	19.9%	1.3%	3.62	2.53	+1.9
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	74	0	80	337	105	33	4	0%	1.1	29.4%	9.5%	19.9%	1.3%	3.62	2.53	+1.9
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	74	0	80	337	105	33	4	0%	1.1	31.2%	9.8%	21.4%	1.2%	3.62	2.36	+2.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	68	286	65	35	4	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.0%	8.9%	1.7%	4.10	3.81	+0.6
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	68	286	65	35	4	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.0%	8.9%	1.7%	4.10	3.81	+0.6
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	68	286	65	35	4	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.2%	10.5%	1.4%	4.10	3.50	+0.9
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	53	222	47	18	11	0%	1.1	19.5%	7.5%	12.1%	5.3%	5.30	5.30	-0.5
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	53	222	47	18	11	0%	1.1	19.5%	7.5%	12.1%	5.3%	5.30	5.30	-0.5
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	53	222	47	18	11	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	5.0%	5.30	5.06	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			122	0	128	531	137	58	14	0%	1.0	25.8%	10.9%	14.9%	2.6%	4.36	3.74	+1.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	CHC	47	0	49	207	48	22	7	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.5%	12.6%	3.4%	4.57	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CHC	29	0	30	127	28	14	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.7%	4.85	5.04	-0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	CHC	16	0	17	70	15	8	3	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	4.1%	5.17	5.38	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	CHC	26	0	27	114	25	13	4	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.7%	4.85	5.04	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	CHC	13	0	14	59	13	7	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	4.1%	5.17	5.38	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	0	169	706	175	78	21	0%	1.1	24.8%	11.0%	13.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.01	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	833	207	92	25	0%	1.0	24.8%	11.0%	13.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		377	3	445	1990	424	264	45	1%	1.2	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	2.3%	4.88	4.23	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	1	200	895	191	119	20	1%	1.2	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	2.3%	4.88	4.23	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 34 IPFIP 4.71 → 4.99 (+0.28)K% 18.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.06%	—	×0.860	15.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.72%	—	×0.900	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.71 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 10 IPFIP 1.73 → 1.96 (+0.23)K% 27.5% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.50%	—	×0.860	23.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×0.900	6.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.183	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.73 → 1.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 28 IPFIP 1.38 → 1.66 (+0.28)K% 33.1% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.08%	—	×0.860	28.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.46%	—	×0.900	7.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.001	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.38 → 1.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 79 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.17 (+0.15)K% 23.2% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.24%	—	×0.860	19.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.68%	—	×0.900	14.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.62%	÷1.012	×1.100	1.76%

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMississippi Braves · 32 IPFIP 2.18 → 2.95 (+0.77)K% 31.9% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.88%	—	×0.810	25.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.100	11.96%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷0.927	×1.200	0.94%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 19 IPFIP 4.41 → 4.76 (+0.34)K% 19.4% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.42%	—	×0.880	17.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.30%	—	×1.050	24.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.981	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 4.41 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Rome Braves · 25 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.15 (+1.14)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.74%	—	×0.770	19.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.92%	—	×1.150	9.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷0.864	×1.250	2.86%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMississippi Braves · 7 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.35 (+0.51)K% 21.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.810	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.100	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.861	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Ferguson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	23.2%	10.5%	3.4%	—	5.16	21.9%	10.7%	47	+0.42	—	—	—
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	79
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	79
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	77
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	77
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	75
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	319	75
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	75
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	74
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	73
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	72
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	71
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	71
Chris Hatcher R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	18.0%	9.6%	4.6%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	246	71
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	70
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	70
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	70
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.7%	10.4%	2.0%	.255	4.41	24.1%	13.8%	97	+0.80	3.34	335	69
Tyler Walker R 2009 · 3.72 FIP	33	SU	3.72	18.0%	5.3%	2.7%	.243	3.77	20.7%	16.6%	35	+0.05	2.38	289	68
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	68
Jared Burton R 2014 · 3.90 FIP	33	SU	3.90	16.9%	8.1%	2.2%	.263	3.99	25.1%	15.7%	14	+0.09	3.09	367	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	45	24.4%	11.3%	1.19	4.53
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*