Tyler Ferguson
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10899vR 90
ERA3.99
FIP4.14
K%22.7%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%9.6%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p5526.0%
K%
p4922.0%
xwOBA vs
p610.301
FB+2.3 (53%)
CT+1.2 (11%)
SL+0.9 (32%)
SI (15%)
CH (4%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 5 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.9% | 32.1% | -14.3% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 5.66 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 5 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.9% | 32.1% | -14.3% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 6.74 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 10 | 0 | 13 | 66 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 11.2% | 32.2% | -21.0% | 1.6% | 8.78 | 7.13 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 10 | 0 | 13 | 66 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.2% | 27.3% | -12.1% | 1.5% | 8.78 | 6.62 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 48 | 232 | 57 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.61 | 5.74 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 48 | 232 | 57 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 6.61 | 4.67 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 17 | 75 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.4% | 19.7% | -6.3% | 0.0% | 4.76 | 4.46 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 17 | 75 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.7% | 16.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 4.76 | 3.57 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 32 | 133 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 2.23 | 4.44 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 32 | 133 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 1.5% | 2.23 | 2.98 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 51 | 241 | 64 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 17.3% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 4.80 | 3.75 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 51 | 241 | 64 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 16.2% | 10.4% | 0.4% | 4.80 | 3.14 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | 51 | 3 | 79 | 370 | 86 | 58 | 6 | 6% | 1.5 | 20.5% | 16.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 5.49 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | 51 | 3 | 79 | 370 | 86 | 58 | 6 | 6% | 1.5 | 23.2% | 15.7% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 5.49 | 4.12 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 74 | 0 | 80 | 337 | 105 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.6% | 10.0% | 19.7% | 1.2% | 3.62 | 2.54 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 74 | 0 | 80 | 337 | 105 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.2% | 9.8% | 21.4% | 1.2% | 3.62 | 2.36 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 65 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 1.7% | 4.10 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 65 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 1.4% | 4.10 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 35 | 0 | 40 | 176 | 34 | 16 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.1% | 12.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 6.47 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 53 | 0 | 56 | 234 | 53 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 3.99 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 54 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 3.99 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 96 | 410 | 87 | 47 | 15 | — | — | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 5.03 | 4.38 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 66 | 281 | 87 | 47 | 15 | — | — | 31.1% | 16.6% | 14.4% | 5.2% | 7.26 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 63 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 53 | 0 | 56 | 234 | 55 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 4.99 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 60 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 4.99 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 271 | 0 | 284 | 1194 | 292 | 140 | 36 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.19 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 841 | 206 | 99 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 364 | 3 | 432 | 1944 | 408 | 280 | 38 | 1% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 14.4% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 4.98 | 4.22 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 1 | 200 | 899 | 189 | 130 | 17 | 1% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 14.4% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 4.98 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Ferguson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 24.7% | 13.2% | 2.4% | — | 5.02 | 23.9% | 11.7% | 116 | +0.65 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 82 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 81 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 79 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 79 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 78 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 78 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.59 | 2.82 | 284 | 77 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 76 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 76 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 76 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.23 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.49 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -0.74 | 2.51 | 373 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 75 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 74 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.5% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.40 | 231 | 74 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.47 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.93 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.46 | 1.60 | 312 | 73 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 73 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |