Tyler Ferguson
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.14
FIP4.10
xFIP5.07
SIERA4.66
K%24.2%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%12.6%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL3030
CMD4545
K†6060
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p5526.0%
K%
p4922.0%
xwOBA vs
p610.301
FB+2.3 (53%)
CT+1.2 (11%)
SL+0.9 (32%)
SI (15%)
CH (4%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 5 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 9 | 0 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 10 | 0 | 13 | 66 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 11.2% | 32.2% | 1.8% | 8.78 | 7.20 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | 36 | 0 | 48 | 232 | 57 | 24 | 9 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 6.61 | 5.72 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | 14 | 0 | 17 | 75 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 13.4% | 19.7% | 0.0% | 4.76 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 22 | 0 | 32 | 133 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 2.23 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 52 | 0 | 51 | 241 | 64 | 39 | 1 | 22.1% | 17.3% | 0.5% | 4.80 | 3.72 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | 51 | 3 | 79 | 370 | 86 | 58 | 6 | 20.5% | 16.5% | 1.8% | 5.49 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 74 | 0 | 80 | 337 | 105 | 33 | 4 | 29.6% | 10.0% | 1.2% | 3.62 | 2.54 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Athletics | 65 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 65 | 35 | 4 | 22.0% | 13.0% | 1.7% | 4.10 | 3.84 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 5 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.53 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 20 | — | 20 | 86 | 22 | 11 | 2 | 25.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | 4.20 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 26 | 112 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 22.7% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 5.36 | 3.37 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 50 | 26 | 5 | 24.3% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 4.33 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 46 | 25 | 5 | 23.6% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 42 | 24 | 5 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 38 | 23 | 5 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 334 | 3 | 398 | 1794 | 387 | 262 | 34 | 21.6% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 4.89 | 4.18 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 2 | 200 | 902 | 195 | 132 | 17 | 21.6% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 4.89 | 4.18 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Ferguson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 25.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | — | 4.56 | 23.6% | 10.6% | 139 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.85 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 231 | 79 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 78 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 78 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 77 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 76 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.28 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .333 | 3.94 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.66 | 3.28 | 197 | 75 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 14.2% | 1.0% | .308 | 3.95 | 24.7% | 14.5% | 120 | +0.40 | 1.94 | 268 | 75 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.45 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.57 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.12 | 1.61 | 312 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 74 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 74 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 74 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2024 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 74 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.88 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 3.28 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.80 | 284 | 73 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 72 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 72 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.