Dugan Darnell
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
+0.6
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.07
FIP4.07
xFIP5.80
SIERA6.20
K%24.1%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%15.0%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†6060
FB+2.2 (53%)
SL-1.0 (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 44 | 0 | 55 | 204 | 80 | 10 | 3 | 30.7% | 7.3% | 1.9% | 1.95 | 2.49 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 38 | 0 | 48 | 224 | 68 | 32 | 9 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 4.9% | 5.29 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 40 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 4.1% | 3.64 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 43 | 1 | 44 | 202 | 56 | 18 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | 5.08 | 3.53 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 44 | 1 | 65 | 267 | 68 | 25 | 5 | 25.3% | 8.6% | 2.0% | 3.31 | 3.14 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | COL | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | COL | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | COL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 43 | 17 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | COL | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | COL | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | COL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | COL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 209 | 2 | 267 | 1132 | 287 | 116 | 34 | 25.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 3.74 | 3.91 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 1 | 200 | 848 | 215 | 87 | 25 | 25.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 3.74 | 3.91 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dugan Darnell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.25 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 136 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 81 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2027 · 2.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.93 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.62 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.69 | 2.93 | 176 | 81 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 80 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 79 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 76 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.48 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.23 | 3.25 | 150 | 76 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 76 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.05 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.05 | 227 | 76 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.60 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .328 | 4.66 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.06 | 2.39 | 676 | 75 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.85 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .292 | 4.74 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +0.89 | 2.83 | 363 | 75 |
| Blake Parker R 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.18 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .269 | 3.64 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.46 | 2.41 | 339 | 75 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.50 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 177 | 75 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 75 |
| Stephen Fife R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 3.65 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.55 | 3.10 | 179 | 75 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.45 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.26 | 1.94 | 268 | 74 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $8M | +$3M | ||