Dugan Darnell — OGILVIE

Dugan Darnell P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 90

ERA3.86

FIP3.86

K%23.4%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%16.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5555

FB+2.2 (53%)

SL-1.0 (20%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	55	204	80	10	3	0%	1.3	30.7%	7.3%	23.4%	2.0%	1.95	2.50	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	55	204	80	10	3	0%	1.3	39.2%	4.9%	34.3%	1.5%	1.95	1.46	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	38	0	48	224	68	32	9	0%	1.3	24.6%	15.7%	8.9%	4.9%	5.29	5.68	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	38	0	48	224	68	32	9	0%	1.3	30.4%	14.3%	16.1%	4.0%	5.29	4.72	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	54	235	65	22	9	0%	1.4	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	4.1%	3.64	4.64	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	54	235	65	22	9	0%	1.4	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	4.1%	3.64	4.64	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	54	235	65	22	9	0%	1.4	27.7%	9.4%	18.3%	3.8%	3.64	4.08	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	44	202	56	18	4	2%	1.0	22.1%	8.1%	13.9%	2.1%	5.08	3.44	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	44	202	56	18	4	2%	1.0	22.1%	8.1%	13.9%	2.1%	5.08	3.44	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	44	202	56	18	4	2%	1.0	27.7%	8.9%	18.8%	2.0%	5.08	2.96	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	65	267	68	25	5	2%	1.5	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.0%	3.31	3.11	+1.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	65	267	68	25	5	2%	1.5	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.0%	3.31	3.11	+1.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	65	267	68	25	5	2%	1.5	25.5%	9.4%	16.1%	1.9%	3.31	3.16	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	12	48	5	7	1	0%	1.3	10.4%	14.6%	-4.2%	2.1%	3.86	5.16	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	COL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	6.9%	16.5%	2.7%	3.86	3.86	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	COL	61	0	64	272	63	20	8	0%	1.1	23.0%	7.4%	15.6%	2.9%	4.01	4.08	+0.4
2028	31	MLB MLE	COL	57	0	60	254	58	20	8	0%	1.1	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.19	4.30	+0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	COL	23	0	24	101	23	8	3	0%	1.0	23.0%	7.4%	15.6%	2.9%	4.01	4.08	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	COL	31	0	33	139	32	11	4	0%	1.1	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.19	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	69	288	60	25	8	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	2.9%	4.07	4.06	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	0	200	841	175	73	23	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	2.9%	4.07	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		209	2	267	1132	279	109	34	1%	1.3	24.7%	9.6%	15.0%	3.0%	3.74	3.89	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	1	200	848	209	82	25	1%	1.3	24.7%	9.6%	15.0%	3.0%	3.74	3.89	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dugan Darnell (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.86	23.4%	6.9%	2.7%	—	4.19	22.9%	15.2%	125	+0.33	—	—	—
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	82
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	80
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	80
Jaye Chapman R 2016 · 3.25 FIP	29	SU	3.25	24.6%	6.4%	2.6%	.274	5.51	13.0%	-0.4%	31	+2.26	3.25	150	80
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.92	176	80
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	79
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	79
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	78
Matt Albers R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	18.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.252	4.45	20.4%	13.3%	147	+1.26	3.15	244	78
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	78
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	77
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	77
Junichi Tazawa R 2015 · 2.94 FIP	29	SU	2.94	22.7%	4.9%	2.1%	.345	4.62	20.6%	12.8%	147	+1.68	2.94	227	76
Chris Martin R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	29	SU	3.24	18.1%	7.0%	1.4%	.319	3.04	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.20	1.76	416	76
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	76
Carlos Torres R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	19.8%	4.9%	2.1%	.315	3.67	20.8%	12.4%	206	+0.48	2.89	326	76
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	76
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	76
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	23.0%	7.4%	1.13	4.01
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36