Dugan Darnell
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89
ERA3.86
FIP3.86
K%24.6%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%16.7%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+2.2 (53%)
SL-1.0 (20%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 55 | 204 | 80 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.7% | 7.3% | 23.4% | 1.7% | 1.95 | 2.35 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 55 | 204 | 80 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 39.2% | 4.9% | 34.3% | 1.5% | 1.95 | 1.46 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 38 | 0 | 48 | 224 | 68 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 5.29 | 5.70 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 38 | 0 | 48 | 224 | 68 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.4% | 14.3% | 16.1% | 4.0% | 5.29 | 4.72 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 3.64 | 4.55 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.7% | 9.4% | 18.3% | 3.8% | 3.64 | 4.08 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 44 | 202 | 56 | 18 | 4 | 2% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 2.0% | 5.08 | 3.40 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 44 | 202 | 56 | 18 | 4 | 2% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 8.9% | 18.8% | 2.0% | 5.08 | 2.96 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 1 | 65 | 267 | 68 | 25 | 5 | 2% | 1.5 | 25.3% | 8.6% | 16.7% | 1.9% | 3.31 | 3.12 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 1 | 65 | 267 | 68 | 25 | 5 | 2% | 1.5 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 16.1% | 1.9% | 3.31 | 3.16 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | COL | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 71 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 7.9% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.86 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 66 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | COL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 60 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | COL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 69 | 288 | 62 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.06 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 0 | 200 | 841 | 181 | 82 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 209 | 2 | 267 | 1132 | 287 | 116 | 33 | 1% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 3.74 | 3.84 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 1 | 200 | 848 | 215 | 87 | 24 | 1% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 3.74 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dugan Darnell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.86 | 24.6% | 7.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.19 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 125 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 80 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 80 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.27 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.34 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.07 | 3.27 | 150 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 79 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 79 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.07 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.81 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 79 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.72 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +1.02 | 2.82 | 363 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 78 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 78 |
| Blake Parker R 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.84 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.48 | 2.61 | 339 | 78 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 77 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 3.15 | 29.9% | 16.3% | 119 | -0.44 | 2.04 | 269 | 76 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 76 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .353 | 4.75 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +1.17 | 2.54 | 279 | 76 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 76 |
| Sam Wolff R 2025 · 2.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.74 | 24.8% | 8.8% | 1.1% | .289 | 3.23 | 26.0% | 17.4% | 22 | +0.49 | 2.74 | 178 | 75 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 75 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 64 | 24.2% | 8.3% | 1.12 | 4.01 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |