Kellen Strahm

RF Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 30 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202427AAA/AATEX466.274/.373/.38262980—.246/.312/.337
202528AAATEX429.242/.350/.34483268—.215/.293/.297
202629AAAHOU218.226/.333/.33931353—.195/.273/.282
2027PROJ10% MLB30MLBHOU14.231/.305/.3250178-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB31MLBHOU36.227/.301/.3190175-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed92
Chase%82
Whiff%77
BB%72
Z-Con%57
K%51
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsJonathan Davis (age 31) · Billy Hamilton (age 30) · John Andreoli (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†78
AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .305 / .325
PA14
HR0
K%21
BB%7
BABIP302
ISO77
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +1.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.5 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +3.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202124 A+Hickory Crawdads — 228192 541026 32602 50 281389448837 167378 2614 373 82 — — — — — —
202225 AAFrisco RoughRiders — 433354 9816010 65956 111 277398407804 130345 2215 361 98 — — — — — —
202225 INTLCangrejeros de Santurce — 6050 9100 7173 10 180317200517 20273 2812 260 62 — — — — — —
202326 AAFrisco RoughRiders — 517438 1081835 741152 93 247358336694 89323 2214 320 68 — — — — — —
202427 AAARound Rock Express — 166136 36531 26371 140 265387368754 103347 2216 341 94 — — — — — —
202427 AAFrisco RoughRiders — 300262 731025 35611 151 279366389755 111343 2012 341 72 — — — — — —
202528 AAARound Rock Express — 429363 881308 59911 325 242350344694 102299 2114 317 68 — — — — — —
202629 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 218186 42823 28502 132 226333339672 113289 2313 307 53 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202124 A+ MLEHickory Crawdads — 228201 44725 23822 50 219305348654 129335 3610 290 82 — — — — — —
202225 AA MLEFrisco RoughRiders — 433374 951409 451156 111 254344364707 110324 2710 313 98 — — — — — —
202326 AA MLEFrisco RoughRiders — 517460 1011834 521392 93 220302298599 78300 2710 268 68 — — — — — —
202427 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 166145 38531 17421 140 262344359702 97335 2510 307 94 — — — — — —
202427 AA MLEFrisco RoughRiders — 300274 65824 22741 151 237295325620 88303 257 274 72 — — — — — —
202528 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 429381 821306 411001 325 215293297590 81267 2310 268 68 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 218195 38722 19602 132 195273282555 87255 289 246 53 — — — — — —
202124 A+ MLEHickory Crawdads — 228201 44725 23822 50 219305348654 129339 3610 290 82 — — — — — —
202124 A+ RAWHickory Crawdads — 228192 541026 32602 50 281389448837 167378 2614 373 82 — — — — — —
202225 AA MLE2 teams — 493425 10816010 511319 121 254346362709 108338 2710 313 98 — — — — — —
202225 AA RAW2 teams — 493404 10717010 721129 121 265388381769 116337 2315 349 98 — — — — — —
202326 AA MLEFrisco RoughRiders — 517460 1011834 521392 93 220302298599 78305 2710 268 68 — — — — — —
202326 AA RAWFrisco RoughRiders — 517438 1081835 741152 93 247358336694 89323 2214 320 68 — — — — — —
202427 AA MLE2 teams — 466420 1021354 391152 291 243310326636 83320 258 286 80 — — — — — —
202427 AA RAW2 teams — 466398 1091556 61982 291 274373382755 108344 2113 341 80 — — — — — —
202528 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 429381 821306 411001 325 215293297590 81272 2310 268 68 — — — — — —
202528 AAA RAWRound Rock Express — 429363 881308 59911 325 242350344694 102299 2114 317 68 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 218195 38722 19602 132 195273282555 87267 289 246 53 — — — — — —
202629 AAA RAWSugar Land Space Cowboys — 218186 42823 28502 132 226333339672 113289 2313 307 53 — — — — — —
202124 A+ MLEHickory Crawdads — 228201 44725 23822 50 219305348654 129335 3610 290 82 — — — — — —
202225 AA MLE2 teams — 493430 10816010 511319 121 251346358705 107324 2710 313 98 — — — — — —
202326 AA MLEFrisco RoughRiders — 517458 1011834 521392 93 221302299601 79300 2710 268 68 — — — — — —
202427 AA MLE2 teams — 466422 1021354 391152 291 242310325635 83314 258 286 80 — — — — — —
202528 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 429384 821306 411001 325 214293294587 81267 2310 268 68 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 218195 38722 19602 132 195273282555 87255 289 246 53 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202427 AA MLE2 teams — 466422 1021354 391152 291 242310325635 83314 258 286 80 — — — — — —
202528 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 429384 821306 411001 325 214293294587 81267 2310 268 68 — — — — — —
202629 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 218195 38722 19602 132 195273282555 87255 289 246 53 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202730 MLB MLEHOU 10% 268241 54913 24661 132 228303321624 93298 259 284 78 -7 +2 +0 -3 +6 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202730 MLB CTXHOU 10% 1413 3100 130 10 231305325631 94302 217 287 78 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202831 MLB MLEHOU 27% 133119 28512 12331 51 224298315613 90294 259 279 75 -4 +1 -3 -1 +3 -0.5
202831 MLB CTXHOU 27% 3633 6100 390 10 227301319620 92298 258 282 75 -1 +0 -1 -0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 3633 6100 390 10 182250212462 30250 258 282 76 -1 +0 -1 -0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650596 1081800 541620 180 181249211461 30249 258 282 76 -19 +4 -14 -7 +14 -2.3
Career— MLE — 26252327 532841435 25069520 11214 229309322631 93307 2610 281 76 -8 +2 -3 -3 +6 -0.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 1322139 621725 283 229309323632 94307 2610 281 76 -18 +4 -7 -7 +14 -1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 218 PAwOBA .303 → .246 (−57)K% 22.9% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.94%÷1.000×1.200——27.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.84%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9828.70%
HBP% /PA0.92%—×0.940—×0.9820.85%
Singles /BIP21.32%÷1.000×0.930×0.995×0.98219.37%
Doubles /BIP5.88%÷1.000×0.830×0.995×0.9824.77%
Triples /BIP1.47%÷1.000×0.970×0.995×0.9821.39%
Home runs /BIP2.21%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9821.52%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .303 → .246; ISO .113 → .089; BABIP .289 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 429 PAwOBA .311 → .268 (−43)K% 21.2% → 23.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.21%÷1.086×1.200——23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.52%÷0.962×0.690—×0.9929.62%
HBP% /PA0.23%—×0.940—×0.9920.22%
Singles /BIP24.63%÷1.053×0.930×1.018×0.99221.96%
Doubles /BIP4.78%÷0.881×0.830×1.018×0.9924.54%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.921×0.970×1.018×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP2.94%÷0.913×0.700—×0.9922.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .311 → .268; ISO .102 → .089; BABIP .299 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 300 PAwOBA .334 → .274 (−60)K% 20.3% → 24.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.33%÷1.010×1.220——24.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.33%÷1.034×0.700—×0.9787.50%
HBP% /PA0.33%—×0.870—×0.9780.28%
Singles /BIP27.86%÷1.018×0.920×1.019×0.97825.09%
Doubles /BIP4.98%÷1.012×0.840×1.019×0.9784.11%
Triples /BIP1.00%÷1.138×0.940×1.019×0.9780.82%
Home runs /BIP2.49%÷1.080×0.800—×0.9781.80%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .334 → .274; ISO .111 → .086; BABIP .343 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 166 PAwOBA .337 → .307 (−31)K% 22.3% → 25.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.29%÷1.069×1.200——25.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.06%÷1.040×0.690—×1.00310.02%
HBP% /PA0.60%—×0.940—×1.0030.57%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷0.989×0.930×1.050×1.00327.01%
Doubles /BIP5.05%÷0.987×0.830×1.050×1.0034.47%
Triples /BIP3.03%÷1.150×0.970×1.050×1.0032.69%
Home runs /BIP1.01%÷0.928×0.700—×1.0030.76%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .337 → .307; ISO .103 → .096; BABIP .347 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 517 PAwOBA .314 → .268 (−46)K% 22.2% → 26.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.24%÷1.009×1.220——26.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.31%÷0.989×0.700—×0.98810.01%
HBP% /PA0.39%—×0.870—×0.9880.33%
Singles /BIP25.39%÷1.031×0.920×1.042×0.98823.32%
Doubles /BIP5.57%÷0.875×0.840×1.042×0.9885.51%
Triples /BIP0.93%÷1.074×0.940×1.042×0.9880.84%
Home runs /BIP1.55%÷0.974×0.800—×0.9881.26%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 115, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .314 → .268; ISO .089 → .081; BABIP .323 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 433 PAwOBA .357 → .313 (−44)K% 21.9% → 26.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.94%÷1.010×1.220——26.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.01%÷1.012×0.700—×0.99810.37%
HBP% /PA1.39%—×0.870—×0.9981.20%
Singles /BIP27.80%÷1.003×0.920×1.050×0.99826.72%
Doubles /BIP6.18%÷1.030×0.840×1.050×0.9985.28%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.940×1.050×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP3.86%÷0.915×0.800—×0.9983.37%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .357 → .313; ISO .130 → .117; BABIP .345 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hickory Crawdads · 228 PAwOBA .363 → .290 (−73)K% 26.3% → 35.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.32%÷0.990×1.350——35.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.60%÷0.964×0.710—×0.9889.89%
HBP% /PA0.88%—×0.810—×0.9880.70%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷1.024×0.910×1.043×0.98824.97%
Doubles /BIP7.58%÷1.091×0.830×1.043×0.9885.94%
Triples /BIP1.52%÷0.900×0.820×1.043×0.9881.42%
Home runs /BIP4.55%÷0.881×0.830—×0.9884.23%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .363 → .290; ISO .167 → .137; BABIP .378 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .