Kellen Strahm
RF Sugar Land Space Cowboys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/AATEX | 466 | .274/.373/.382 | 6 | 29 | 80 | — | .246/.312/.337 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAATEX | 429 | .242/.350/.344 | 8 | 32 | 68 | — | .215/.293/.297 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAAHOU | 218 | .226/.333/.339 | 3 | 13 | 53 | — | .195/.273/.282 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 30 | MLBHOU | 14 | .231/.305/.325 | 0 | 1 | 78 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 31 | MLBHOU | 36 | .227/.301/.319 | 0 | 1 | 75 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 228 | 192 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 60 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 281 | 389 | 448 | 837 | 167 | 378 | 26 | 14 | 373 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 433 | 354 | 98 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 65 | 95 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 277 | 398 | 407 | 804 | 130 | 345 | 22 | 15 | 361 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 60 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 180 | 317 | 200 | 517 | 20 | 273 | 28 | 12 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 517 | 438 | 108 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 115 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 247 | 358 | 336 | 694 | 89 | 323 | 22 | 14 | 320 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 166 | 136 | 36 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 37 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 265 | 387 | 368 | 754 | 103 | 347 | 22 | 16 | 341 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 300 | 262 | 73 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 61 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 279 | 366 | 389 | 755 | 111 | 343 | 20 | 12 | 341 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 429 | 363 | 88 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 59 | 91 | 1 | 32 | 5 | 242 | 350 | 344 | 694 | 102 | 299 | 21 | 14 | 317 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 218 | 186 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 50 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 226 | 333 | 339 | 672 | 113 | 289 | 23 | 13 | 307 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 228 | 201 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 82 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 219 | 305 | 348 | 654 | 129 | 335 | 36 | 10 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 433 | 374 | 95 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 45 | 115 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 254 | 344 | 364 | 707 | 110 | 324 | 27 | 10 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 517 | 460 | 101 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 52 | 139 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 220 | 302 | 298 | 599 | 78 | 300 | 27 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 166 | 145 | 38 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 262 | 344 | 359 | 702 | 97 | 335 | 25 | 10 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 300 | 274 | 65 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 74 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 237 | 295 | 325 | 620 | 88 | 303 | 25 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 429 | 381 | 82 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 100 | 1 | 32 | 5 | 215 | 293 | 297 | 590 | 81 | 267 | 23 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 218 | 195 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 195 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 87 | 255 | 28 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 228 | 201 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 82 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 219 | 305 | 348 | 654 | 129 | 339 | 36 | 10 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 228 | 192 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 60 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 281 | 389 | 448 | 837 | 167 | 378 | 26 | 14 | 373 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 425 | 108 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 131 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 254 | 346 | 362 | 709 | 108 | 338 | 27 | 10 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 493 | 404 | 107 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 72 | 112 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 265 | 388 | 381 | 769 | 116 | 337 | 23 | 15 | 349 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 517 | 460 | 101 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 52 | 139 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 220 | 302 | 298 | 599 | 78 | 305 | 27 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 517 | 438 | 108 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 115 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 247 | 358 | 336 | 694 | 89 | 323 | 22 | 14 | 320 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 420 | 102 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 115 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 243 | 310 | 326 | 636 | 83 | 320 | 25 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 466 | 398 | 109 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 61 | 98 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 274 | 373 | 382 | 755 | 108 | 344 | 21 | 13 | 341 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 429 | 381 | 82 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 100 | 1 | 32 | 5 | 215 | 293 | 297 | 590 | 81 | 272 | 23 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 429 | 363 | 88 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 59 | 91 | 1 | 32 | 5 | 242 | 350 | 344 | 694 | 102 | 299 | 21 | 14 | 317 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 218 | 195 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 195 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 87 | 267 | 28 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA RAW | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 218 | 186 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 50 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 226 | 333 | 339 | 672 | 113 | 289 | 23 | 13 | 307 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 228 | 201 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 82 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 219 | 305 | 348 | 654 | 129 | 335 | 36 | 10 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 430 | 108 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 131 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 251 | 346 | 358 | 705 | 107 | 324 | 27 | 10 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 517 | 458 | 101 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 52 | 139 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 221 | 302 | 299 | 601 | 79 | 300 | 27 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 422 | 102 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 115 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 242 | 310 | 325 | 635 | 83 | 314 | 25 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 429 | 384 | 82 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 100 | 1 | 32 | 5 | 214 | 293 | 294 | 587 | 81 | 267 | 23 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 218 | 195 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 195 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 87 | 255 | 28 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 422 | 102 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 115 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 242 | 310 | 325 | 635 | 83 | 314 | 25 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 429 | 384 | 82 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 100 | 1 | 32 | 5 | 214 | 293 | 294 | 587 | 81 | 267 | 23 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 218 | 195 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 195 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 87 | 255 | 28 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 10% | 268 | 241 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 66 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 228 | 303 | 321 | 624 | 93 | 298 | 25 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -7 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 10% | 14 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 305 | 325 | 631 | 94 | 302 | 21 | 7 | 287 | 78 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | HOU | 27% | 133 | 119 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 224 | 298 | 315 | 613 | 90 | 294 | 25 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -4 | +1 | -3 | -1 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | HOU | 27% | 36 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 301 | 319 | 620 | 92 | 298 | 25 | 8 | 282 | 75 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 36 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 212 | 462 | 30 | 250 | 25 | 8 | 282 | 76 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 108 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 162 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 181 | 249 | 211 | 461 | 30 | 249 | 25 | 8 | 282 | 76 | -19 | +4 | -14 | -7 | +14 | -2.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2625 | 2327 | 532 | 84 | 14 | 35 | 250 | 695 | 20 | 112 | 14 | 229 | 309 | 322 | 631 | 93 | 307 | 26 | 10 | 281 | 76 | -8 | +2 | -3 | -3 | +6 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 132 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 62 | 172 | 5 | 28 | 3 | 229 | 309 | 323 | 632 | 94 | 307 | 26 | 10 | 281 | 76 | -18 | +4 | -7 | -7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 218 PAwOBA .303 → .246 (−57)K% 22.9% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.94% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 8.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×0.982 | 19.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×0.982 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×0.982 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .303 → .246; ISO .113 → .089; BABIP .289 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 429 PAwOBA .311 → .268 (−43)K% 21.2% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.21% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.52% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.63% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 21.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.78% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .311 → .268; ISO .102 → .089; BABIP .299 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 300 PAwOBA .334 → .274 (−60)K% 20.3% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.33% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.33% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.33% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.86% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 25.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.98% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.49% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.80% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .334 → .274; ISO .111 → .086; BABIP .343 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAARound Rock Express · 166 PAwOBA .337 → .307 (−31)K% 22.3% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.29% | ÷1.069 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.06% | ÷1.040 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 27.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.05% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 4.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 2.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.928 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.76% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .337 → .307; ISO .103 → .096; BABIP .347 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 517 PAwOBA .314 → .268 (−46)K% 22.2% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.24% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.31% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 10.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.39% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×1.042 | ×0.988 | 23.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.57% | ÷0.875 | ×0.840 | ×1.042 | ×0.988 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.074 | ×0.940 | ×1.042 | ×0.988 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷0.974 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.26% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 115, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .314 → .268; ISO .089 → .081; BABIP .323 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 433 PAwOBA .357 → .313 (−44)K% 21.9% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.94% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.01% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 10.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.80% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 26.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.18% | ÷1.030 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 5.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.86% | ÷0.915 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.37% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .357 → .313; ISO .130 → .117; BABIP .345 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Hickory Crawdads · 228 PAwOBA .363 → .290 (−73)K% 26.3% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷0.990 | ×1.350 | — | — | 35.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.60% | ÷0.964 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.024 | ×0.910 | ×1.043 | ×0.988 | 24.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | ×1.043 | ×0.988 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.043 | ×0.988 | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 4.23% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .363 → .290; ISO .167 → .137; BABIP .378 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .