Irvin Machuca
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 187 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 18 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
K%24.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | AAA | Piratas de Campeche | 36 | 1 | 38 | 173 | 39 | 21 | 2 | 3% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 12.7% | 7.1% | 0.9% | 4.54 | 3.54 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | AAA | Piratas de Campeche | 36 | 1 | 38 | 173 | 39 | 21 | 2 | 3% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 1.2% | 4.54 | 3.39 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 62 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.2% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 1.5% | 4.50 | 3.26 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 62 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.0% | 11.3% | 23.7% | 1.1% | 4.50 | 2.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 14 | 0 | 19 | 93 | 21 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.3% | 18.9% | -0.6% | 9.0% | 8.38 | 8.91 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 0 | 18 | 75 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.27 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 37 | 168 | 39 | 23 | 9 | — | — | 23.2% | 13.9% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 6.42 | 6.69 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 3.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.93 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 76 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 79 | 1 | 99 | 443 | 98 | 61 | 13 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 13.8% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 5.27 | 4.56 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 2 | 200 | 895 | 198 | 124 | 26 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 13.8% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 5.27 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Irvin Machuca (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.31 | 23.9% | 14.1% | 20 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 89 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 88 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.15 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.73 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.58 | 3.15 | 220 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 87 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 85 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 85 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 85 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 85 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 84 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 84 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.27 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.07 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.20 | 2.74 | 178 | 83 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 83 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 83 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 82 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 82 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.08 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.66 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.58 | 3.08 | 124 | 82 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 82 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.12 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .284 | 3.59 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 55 | +0.47 | 2.49 | 160 | 81 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 81 |