Irvin Machuca — OGILVIE

Irvin Machuca P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 187 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%25.1%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	36	1	38	173	39	21	2	3%	1.0	19.8%	12.7%	7.1%	1.1%	4.54	3.62	—
2019	19	AAA RAW	Piratas de Campeche	36	1	38	173	39	21	2	3%	1.0	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	1.2%	4.54	3.39	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	42	177	62	20	2	0%	1.4	26.2%	12.2%	14.1%	1.7%	4.50	3.35	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	42	177	62	20	2	0%	1.4	26.2%	12.2%	14.1%	1.7%	4.50	3.35	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	42	177	62	20	2	0%	1.4	35.0%	11.3%	23.7%	1.1%	4.50	2.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	14	0	19	93	21	16	7	0%	1.4	18.3%	18.9%	-0.6%	9.0%	8.38	8.91	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	14	0	19	93	21	16	7	0%	1.4	18.3%	18.9%	-0.6%	9.0%	8.38	8.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CIN	14	0	19	93	21	16	7	0%	1.4	22.6%	17.2%	5.4%	7.5%	8.38	7.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	35	0	37	157	39	18	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.41	+0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	13	0	14	59	15	7	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	59	15	7	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.03	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	215	100	29	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		79	1	99	443	98	61	13	1%	1.3	22.1%	13.8%	8.3%	3.0%	5.27	4.63	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	2	200	895	198	124	27	1%	1.3	22.1%	13.8%	8.3%	3.0%	5.27	4.63	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Irvin Machuca (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	25.1%	11.4%	2.9%	—	4.41	25.0%	13.7%	37	+0.04	—	—	—
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	89
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	88
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	87
Neil Ramírez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	26	SU	3.21	25.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.289	4.75	28.3%	17.6%	151	+1.54	3.21	220	87
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	87
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	84
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	84
Maikel Cleto R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	25.8%	12.1%	2.4%	.214	3.13	25.0%	15.3%	55	-0.66	2.59	156	84
Kyle Winkler R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	8.7%	2.6%	.234	3.53	18.4%	8.3%	43	-0.17	2.97	114	83
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	83
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	82
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	82
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	82
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	82
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	651	81
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	25.0%	11.3%	1.13	4.38
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82