Jose Franco — OGILVIE

Jose Franco P Cincinnati Reds

+0.2 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 257 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.6 · 2028

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

xFIP5.60

SIERA5.94

K%21.9%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.6%

IP99

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2028

K†5050

FB (47%)

SL-0.6 (41%)

CH-1.7 (12%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	DSL Reds	14	14	57	228	59	14	1	17.6%	7.7%	0.6%	2.20	2.92	+1.3
2021	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	19	11	59	273	77	42	12	20.9%	18.2%	5.9%	6.71	6.90	-1.3
2022	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	20	13	77	334	104	39	13	23.0%	13.8%	6.2%	4.44	6.30	-1.0
2024	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	22	22	77	314	90	26	7	21.7%	9.6%	2.4%	3.52	3.81	+1.1
2025	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	31	26	110	468	118	54	14	21.2%	12.4%	3.6%	3.11	4.87	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	4	1	9	45	7	6	0	—	—	—	8.31	—	—
ROS	25	MLB	CIN	34	—	34	143	31	16	5	21.9%	11.3%	3.4%	4.91	4.91	+0.0
2026 Total	25	MLB	CIN	—	—	43	188	38	22	5	20.4%	11.8%	2.6%	5.60	3.91	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	CIN	19	19	106	447	95	51	14	21.3%	11.3%	3.2%	4.86	4.86	+0.5
2028	27	MLB	CIN	20	20	109	461	99	51	15	21.4%	11.1%	3.2%	4.81	4.82	+0.6
2029	28	MLB	CIN	20	20	110	462	99	51	15	21.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.80	4.82	+0.6
2030	29	MLB	CIN	19	19	107	452	96	49	15	21.3%	10.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.85	+0.5
2031	30	MLB	CIN	19	19	104	438	92	48	14	21.1%	11.1%	3.3%	4.87	4.91	+0.5
2032	31	MLB	CIN	18	18	100	423	88	47	14	20.8%	11.2%	3.4%	4.94	4.98	+0.4
2033	32	MLB	CIN	17	17	96	406	84	46	14	20.6%	11.3%	3.4%	5.02	5.07	+0.2
2034	33	MLB	CIN	17	17	92	388	79	45	14	20.2%	11.5%	3.5%	5.11	5.17	+0.1
2035	34	MLB	CIN	16	16	87	369	73	43	13	19.9%	11.7%	3.6%	5.21	5.28	-0.1
2036	35	MLB	CIN	15	15	82	347	68	41	13	19.5%	11.9%	3.7%	5.32	5.40	-0.2
2037	36	MLB	CIN	14	14	77	325	69	37	13	21.1%	11.4%	3.9%	5.29	5.26	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			110	87	389	1662	348	207	63	21.0%	12.5%	3.8%	3.98	4.99	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—			57	45	200	855	179	107	32	21.0%	12.5%	3.8%	3.98	4.99	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Franco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.9%	11.3%	3.4%	—	4.83	21.4%	10.3%	324	-0.08	—	—	—
Manny Barreda R 2027 · 5.08 FIP	26	SU	5.08	21.2%	14.7%	3.5%	.286	3.67	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.41	3.25	376	84
Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.48	21.4%	11.7%	382	+0.11	3.69	509	84
Michael King R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	25	SU	4.12	21.5%	9.1%	3.1%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.38	1.98	862	83
Justin Sterner R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	26.5%	9.6%	4.3%	.266	4.42	26.5%	18.0%	166	-0.04	3.97	252	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	24.5%	13.2%	2.8%	.256	4.33	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.08	3.88	180	81
Ronel Blanco R 2026 · 5.08 FIP	25	SU	5.08	22.6%	12.9%	4.1%	.342	4.63	27.8%	18.6%	90	-0.45	3.21	667	81
Jason Adam R 2027 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	25.9%	11.0%	5.1%	.241	3.31	29.4%	18.8%	60	-1.80	2.40	362	80
Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.50	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.14	2.78	181	80
Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	25	SW	4.66	20.8%	9.7%	3.8%	.286	4.20	19.0%	12.1%	61	-0.46	3.68	331	79
Joe Harvey R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	25	SU	3.82	22.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.183	3.92	25.0%	12.7%	107	+0.10	2.56	197	79
Tyler Bashlor R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	25	SW	4.72	21.3%	10.9%	3.7%	.222	4.52	21.9%	10.6%	97	-0.20	2.55	253	79
Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	24.5%	9.5%	2.7%	.232	5.13	18.0%	7.0%	180	+1.43	3.70	223	79
Joey Krehbiel R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	26.1%	10.1%	4.0%	.294	5.41	21.6%	10.9%	107	+1.03	3.34	556	78
Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	25	SU	4.38	19.1%	8.1%	3.4%	.275	4.54	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.16	4.12	230	78
Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	21.4%	12.4%	2.4%	.296	5.37	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.16	3.60	146	78
Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	26	SW	3.85	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.07	3.23	161	78
Gavin Hollowell R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	25	SW	4.69	21.7%	10.7%	3.8%	.273	3.93	27.1%	13.7%	63	-0.76	2.39	191	78
Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.49	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.04	4.37	119	78
Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	25	SW	4.41	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.44	24.0%	10.9%	22	+1.03	4.41	152	78
Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	25	SW	4.99	22.0%	12.0%	4.1%	.272	5.30	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.31	4.99	105	78

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.163 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.5M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$13M	+$4M