Jose Franco

P Louisville Bats

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 257 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	22	22	77	3.52	2.96	28.7%	8.3%	—	K 21.7% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.84
2025	24	MIX2 levels	31	26	110	3.11	4.08	25.2%	11.5%	—	K 21.0% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.77
2026	25	MIX3 levels	27	10	81	4.33	4.47	19.8%	13.8%	0.1	K 17.7% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.55
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	15	15	92	4.73	5.02	19.7%	12.5%	0.4
2028PROJ80% MLB	27	MLBCIN	13	13	78	4.85	4.98	19.9%	12.1%	0.4
2029PROJ86% MLB	28	MLBCIN	12	12	72	4.93	5.01	19.9%	11.9%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo58

xwOBA vs20

K%10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 26) · Denny Bautista (age 25) · Ricky Castro (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA4.73

FIP5.02

K%19.7%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP130

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p1720.6%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	14	57	228	59	14	1	100%	4.1	17.6%	7.7%	9.9%	0.6%	2.20	2.92	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	14	57	228	59	14	1	100%	4.1	25.9%	6.1%	19.7%	0.4%	2.20	2.00	—
2021	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	19	11	59	273	77	42	12	58%	3.1	20.9%	18.2%	2.7%	5.9%	6.71	6.87	—
2021	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	19	11	59	273	77	42	12	58%	3.1	28.2%	15.4%	12.8%	4.4%	6.71	5.27	—
2022	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	20	13	77	334	104	39	13	65%	3.9	23.0%	13.8%	9.3%	5.7%	4.44	6.05	—
2022	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	20	13	77	334	104	39	13	65%	3.9	31.1%	11.7%	19.5%	3.9%	4.44	4.11	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	77	314	90	26	7	100%	3.5	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	2.5%	3.52	3.84	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	77	314	90	26	7	100%	3.5	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	2.5%	3.52	3.84	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	77	314	90	26	7	100%	3.5	28.7%	8.3%	20.4%	2.2%	3.52	2.96	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	110	468	118	54	14	84%	3.5	21.0%	11.5%	9.5%	3.6%	3.11	4.77	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	110	468	118	54	14	84%	3.5	21.0%	11.5%	9.5%	3.6%	3.11	4.77	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	26	110	468	118	54	14	84%	3.5	25.2%	11.5%	13.7%	3.0%	3.11	4.08	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	10	81	354	70	49	8	37%	3.0	17.7%	12.9%	4.8%	2.4%	4.33	4.55	+0.0
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	10	81	354	70	49	8	37%	3.0	17.7%	12.9%	4.8%	2.4%	4.33	4.55	+0.0
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	10	81	354	70	49	8	37%	3.0	19.8%	13.8%	5.9%	2.3%	4.33	4.47	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	20	93	15	16	3	0%	2.0	16.1%	17.2%	-1.1%	3.2%	4.43	5.90	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	15	15	92	388	76	48	12	100%	6.1	19.7%	12.5%	7.2%	3.0%	4.73	5.02	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	98	414	82	50	13	100%	6.1	19.9%	12.1%	7.8%	3.0%	4.85	4.98	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	84	356	71	42	11	100%	6.0	19.9%	11.9%	8.1%	3.1%	4.93	5.01	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	75	318	62	38	10	100%	5.8	19.4%	11.9%	7.6%	3.3%	5.04	5.14	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	67	283	53	34	10	100%	6.1	18.8%	12.1%	6.7%	3.5%	5.20	5.32	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	78	329	66	40	10	100%	6.0	19.9%	12.1%	7.8%	3.0%	4.85	4.98	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	72	304	61	36	9	100%	6.0	19.9%	11.9%	8.1%	3.1%	4.93	5.01	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	67	283	55	34	9	100%	6.1	19.4%	11.9%	7.6%	3.3%	5.04	5.14	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	61	258	48	31	9	100%	6.1	18.8%	12.1%	6.7%	3.5%	5.20	5.32	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	46	298	1267	245	157	41	82%	5.3	19.3%	12.4%	6.9%	3.2%	4.95	4.79	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	31	200	849	164	105	27	82%	5.3	19.3%	12.4%	6.9%	3.2%	4.95	4.79	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		133	96	461	1971	403	243	70	72%	3.5	20.4%	12.3%	8.1%	3.5%	3.96	4.88	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	42	200	855	175	105	30	72%	3.5	20.4%	12.3%	8.1%	3.5%	3.96	4.88	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 59 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.18 (+0.20)K% 21.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.26%	—	×0.860	18.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.60%	—	×0.900	11.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 59 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.78 (+0.72)K% 26.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.72%	—	×0.810	21.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.100	11.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.62%	÷1.021	×1.200	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 51 IPFIP 5.20 → 5.87 (+0.66)K% 23.5% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.860	20.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.67%	—	×0.900	11.40%
HR / BF /BF	4.52%	÷0.901	×1.100	5.52%

Result: FIP 5.20 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 47 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.57 (+0.64)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.65%	—	×0.770	19.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×1.150	10.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷1.285	×1.250	1.53%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 30 IPFIP 3.00 → 4.26 (+1.27)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.180	8.63%
HR / BF /BF	3.25%	÷1.078	×1.300	3.92%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 77 IPFIP 4.09 → 6.05 (+1.96)K% 31.1% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.14%	—	×0.740	23.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.68%	—	×1.180	13.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.89%	÷0.883	×1.300	5.73%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 6.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 59 IPFIP 5.08 → 6.87 (+1.79)K% 28.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.740	20.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.180	18.15%
HR / BF /BF	4.40%	÷0.969	×1.300	5.90%

Result: FIP 5.08 → 6.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKDSL Reds · 57 IPFIP 1.93 → 2.92 (+0.99)K% 25.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.88%	—	×0.680	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.14%	—	×1.250	7.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.44%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.61%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.93 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Franco (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	5.04	19.8%	7.8%	258	+0.02	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	78
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	71
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	70
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	70
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	69
Tony Dibrell R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SP-	4.96	23.8%	17.4%	3.0%	.314	8.63	13.2%	-1.2%	29	+3.67	4.18	347	69
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	68
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	68
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	68
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	68
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	68
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	67
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	67
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	67
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	67
Victor Santos R 2003 · 5.99 FIP	26	SP-	5.99	12.8%	12.8%	4.3%	.293	4.38	15.4%	7.7%	411	-1.61	4.09	602	67
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	67
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	67
Cole Percival R 2024 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	17.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.296	3.58	20.5%	9.5%	36	-1.02	3.58	327	67
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	79	19.4%	12.3%	1.21	4.89
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Frank Kreutzer ('62-'69, -1 WAR*)	1.1	70	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.21*	5.31*
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Jack O'Connor ('81-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.6	64	18.6%*	11.4%*	1.20*	4.96*
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83