Michael Busch

1B Chicago Cubs

Age 29 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 2.262S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	26	MLBCHC	567	.248/.337/.440	21	2	118	1.0
2025	27	MLBCHC	592	.261/.344/.523	34	4	141	2.6
2026	28	MLBCHC	710	.242/.355/.393	20	3	113	1.5
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	648	.244/.346/.430	24	4	120	2.4
2028PROJ	30	MLBCHC	648	.240/.341/.420	23	2	116	1.9
2029PROJ	31	MLBCHC	648	.234/.335/.407	23	2	111	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.262First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$4M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$6M2030Arb-4$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Chase%90

Whiff%89

xwOBA81

Barrel%77

Avg EV64

Speed20

Form.237/.348/.414 · rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .243/.343/.431

CompsJi Man Choi (age 29) · Dan Johnson (age 30) · Jake Lamb (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 94120vR 129

AVG/OBP/SLG.244 / .346 / .430

PA648

HR24

K%23

BB%12

BABIP290

ISO185

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$33M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

896.9%

xAVG

330.237

POWER60

Barrel%

7712.3

Avg EV

6490.1

Bat Spd

1267.3

EYE55

Chase%

9017.1%

SPEED45

Sprint

2026.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%24%▼25% over 67 PA (45d) · proj 23%

BB%13%▲14% over 126 PA (60d) · proj 12%

ISO.177▼.160 over 106 AB (60d) · proj .188

HR/BB5.8%·5.3% over 75 BBE (60d) · proj 6.1%

BABIP.288·.296 over 71 BIP (60d) · proj .287

SLASH.237/.348/.414·proj .243/.343/.431

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1267 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

232

1035

—

wRC+

131

▶▶R

wOBA

300

361

▶▶R

ISO

135

235

▶▶R

BABIP

282

306

▶R

24.6%

25.9%

◀L

BB%

9.1%

10.2%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.262 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$4M	+2.5	$20M	+$16M
2028	Arb-2	$4M	+1.9	$14M	+$10M
2029	Arb-3	$6M	+1.4	$10M	+$5M
2030	Arb-4	$6M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$46M	+$31M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	21	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	19	11	2	0	0	0	6	3	1	0	0	182	500	182	682		222	16	32	354	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	ROK	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	—	16	13	1	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	77	250	77	327		91	12	6	192	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	22	13	3	0	0	1	9	4	0	1	0	231	545	462	1.007	231	250	18	41	462	199	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	495	409	109	27	1	20	70	129	12	2	3	267	389	484	873	218	337	26	14	385	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	504	444	118	32	0	21	50	131	5	3	2	266	347	480	826	214	327	26	10	361	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	137	108	33	6	0	11	24	36	4	1	0	306	449	667	1.115	361	355	26	18	473	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	81	72	12	3	0	2	8	27	0	1	0	167	250	292	542	125	227	33	10	246	56	-4	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.3
2023	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	469	390	126	26	4	27	65	88	11	4	0	323	433	618	1.051	295	356	19	14	452	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	567	496	123	28	2	21	63	162	4	2	1	248	337	440	777	192	322	29	11	344	118	+12	+0	-4	-10	+12	1.0
2025	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	592	524	137	25	5	34	56	139	10	4	0	261	344	523	867	261	292	23	9	377	141	+29	+1	-6	-11	+13	2.6
2026	28	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	710	600	145	27	2	20	92	165	13	3	2	242	355	393	748	152	298	23	13	338	113	+11	-0	+1	-13	+15	1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1950	1692	417	83	9	77	219	493	27	10	3	246	342	443	785	196	300	25	11	348	122	+50	+1	-13	-31	+42	5.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	21	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	19	13	2	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	154	389	154	543		209	21	21	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	—	16	13	1	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	77	250	77	327		73	19	6	134	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	495	432	97	23	1	17	47	163	12	2	3	225	318	400	718	176	305	33	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	504	461	103	28	0	15	33	156	5	3	2	223	283	382	664	158	294	31	7	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	137	115	29	5	0	9	17	45	4	1	0	252	368	530	898	278	305	33	12	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	81	72	12	3	0	2	8	27	0	1	0	167	250	292	542	125	227	33	10	250	56	-4	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.3
2023	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	469	409	108	22	3	19	46	105	11	4	0	264	354	472	826	208	307	22	10	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	567	497	123	27	2	22	62	162	4	2	1	247	336	443	778	195	322	29	11	343	118	+12	+0	-4	-10	+12	1.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	592	526	136	24	4	35	54	139	10	4	0	259	339	519	858	260	292	23	9	376	141	+29	+1	-6	-11	+13	2.6
2026	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	710	603	145	26	2	21	89	165	13	3	2	240	350	395	745	154	298	23	13	335	113	+11	-0	+1	-13	+15	1.5
2019	21	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	57	45	5	0	0	0	8	11	3	1	0	111	286	111	397		143	19	14	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	INTL RAW	3 teams	—	57	37	6	0	0	1	16	9	3	1	0	162	446	243	690	81	179	16	28	350	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	495	432	97	23	1	17	47	163	12	2	3	225	318	400	718	176	312	33	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	—	495	409	109	27	1	20	70	129	12	2	3	267	389	484	873	218	337	26	14	385	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	641	576	132	33	0	24	50	201	9	4	2	229	301	411	712	182	303	31	8	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	641	552	151	38	0	32	74	167	9	4	2	274	369	516	885	243	331	26	12	385	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	550	481	120	25	3	21	54	132	11	5	0	249	339	445	784	195	298	24	10	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	550	462	138	29	4	29	73	115	11	5	0	299	407	567	974	268	339	21	13	422	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	567	497	123	27	2	22	62	162	4	2	1	247	336	443	778	195	319	29	11	343	118	+12	+0	-4	-10	+12	1.0
2024	26	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	567	496	123	28	2	21	63	162	4	2	1	248	337	440	777	192	322	29	11	344	118	+12	+0	-4	-10	+12	1.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	592	526	136	24	4	35	54	139	10	4	0	259	339	519	858	260	285	23	9	376	141	+29	+1	-6	-11	+13	2.6
2025	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	592	524	137	25	5	34	56	139	10	4	0	261	344	523	867	261	292	23	9	377	141	+29	+1	-6	-11	+13	2.6
2026	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	710	603	145	26	2	21	89	165	13	3	2	240	350	395	745	154	294	23	13	335	113	+11	-0	+1	-13	+15	1.5
2026	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	710	600	145	27	2	20	92	165	13	3	2	242	355	393	748	152	298	23	13	338	113	+11	-0	+1	-13	+15	1.5
2019	21	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	57	46	5	0	0	0	8	11	3	1	0	109	286	109	394		147	19	14	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	495	433	97	23	1	17	47	163	12	2	3	224	318	400	717	176	305	33	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	641	577	132	33	0	24	50	201	9	4	2	229	301	411	712	182	296	31	8	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	550	480	120	25	3	21	54	132	11	5	0	250	339	446	785	196	295	24	10	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	567	496	123	27	2	22	62	162	4	2	1	248	336	444	779	196	322	29	11	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	592	523	136	24	4	35	54	139	10	4	0	260	339	522	861	262	292	23	9	376	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	710	602	145	26	2	21	89	165	13	3	2	241	350	395	746	154	298	23	13	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	567	496	123	27	2	22	62	162	4	2	1	248	336	444	779	196	322	29	11	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	592	523	136	24	4	35	54	139	10	4	0	260	339	522	861	262	292	23	9	376	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	710	602	145	26	2	21	89	165	13	3	2	241	350	395	746	154	298	23	13	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	630	541	131	24	2	24	73	148	11	4	1	243	345	431	777	188	287	23	12	345	120	+15	+0	+5	-11	+14	2.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	648	556	135	25	3	24	76	152	11	4	1	244	346	430	776	186	290	23	12	345	120	+15	+0	+5	-12	+14	2.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	648	557	133	24	2	24	75	154	11	2	1	239	341	422	763	182	284	24	12	340	116	+12	+0	+3	-12	+14	1.9
2029	31	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	648	559	131	23	2	24	74	157	10	2	1	234	335	409	744	175	279	24	11	333	111	+9	+0	+3	-12	+14	1.4
2030	32	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	648	559	128	22	2	23	74	160	10	1	0	226	327	392	719	166	272	25	11	323	105	+4	+0	+2	-12	+14	0.8
2031	33	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	584	505	109	18	1	19	65	147	9	1	0	217	318	371	689	154	264	25	11	311	97	-2	+0	+1	-10	+13	0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	648	557	134	25	3	23	75	154	11	2	1	240	341	420	761	180	287	24	12	340	116	+12	+0	+3	-12	+14	1.9
2029	31	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	648	559	131	24	2	23	74	157	10	2	1	234	335	407	743	173	282	24	11	332	111	+9	+0	+3	-12	+14	1.4
2030	32	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	648	559	128	23	2	22	74	160	10	1	0	227	328	390	718	163	275	25	11	322	105	+4	+0	+2	-12	+14	0.8
2031	33	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	584	505	109	19	1	18	65	147	9	1	0	218	318	369	687	152	266	25	11	310	97	-2	+0	+1	-10	+13	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4478	3872	919	174	17	163	507	1111	67	16	5	237	336	417	753	180	288	25	11	336	111	+73	+1	-4	-77	+97	9.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	562	133	25	2	24	74	161	10	2	1	237	336	416	752	180	287	25	11	336	111	+11	+0	-1	-11	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	6788	5896	1394	270	21	255	728	1743	113	31	11	236	332	419	751	183	289	26	11	333	111	+88	+2	+1	-88	+111	11.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	133	26	2	24	70	167	11	3	1	235	332	416	748	181	288	26	11	333	111	+11	+0	+0	-11	+14	1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Pat Burrell'00-'11 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,520 PA	9.8	6,520	292	7	244*	349*	460*	-81	-52	23.3	21.9
/162	664	30	1	-8.3	-5.2	2.4	pk7: 20
#2Gus Suhr'30-'40 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,989 PA	9.0	5,989	84	53	254*	352*	442*	-107	-40	16.4	15.9
/162	664	9	6	-11.9	-4.5	1.8	pk7: 15
#3Carlos Penalast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,856 PA	8.8	5,856	285	29	231	346	462	-98	-110	14.3	15.3
/162	664	32	3	-11.2	-12.5	1.6	pk7: 16
#4Eddie Robinson'42-'57 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,891 PA	7.4	4,891	172	10	258*	330*	468*	-87	-24	12.8	13.4
/162	664	23	1	-11.9	-3.2	1.7	pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.7	5,126	192	20	239	334	422	-92	-45	12.8	13.0
/162	664	25	3	-11.9	-5.9	1.7	pk7: 13
#5Trey Mancinilast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,367 PA	5.1	3,367	126	2	262	327	445	-47	-48	6.3	6.3
/162	664	25	0	-9.2	-9.4	1.2	pk7: 6
#6Greg Walker'82-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,177 PA	4.8	3,177	113	19	257*	326*	467*	-59	-36	4.1	5.0
/162	664	24	4	-12.4	-7.5	0.9	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Busch (OGILVIE)	29	50	60	45	55	241/342/427	186	287	25	4	23%	12%	120	+3.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ji Man Choi 2020 · MLB	29	50	55	43→45	55	253/344/445	191	304	22	4	24%	11%	123	+3.0	240/339/417	177	307	19	3	26%	13%	115	+2.4	227/334/394	167	304	17	0	28%	13%	109	+1.0
●Dan Johnson 2010 · MLB	30	48→53	56→60	43→30	59	252/340/443	191	272	25	3	18%	12%	121	+2.9	227/315/418	191	245	26	3	20%	11%	107	+1.8	217/307/406	189	228	27	1	19%	11%	102	+1.4
✕Jake Lamb 2019 · MLB	28	44→54	57→60	44→45	53	233/320/431	198	276	24	6	25%	11%	112	+2.2	211/308/371	160	263	19	4	26%	11%	94	+0.9	216/303/362	146	282	18	1	28%	10%	88	+0.2
●Daniel Vogelbach 2022 · MLB	29	43→53	55→60	45→40	63	230/346/413	184	268	24	3	24%	15%	118	+2.6	241/347/419	178	295	22	3	24%	14%	118	+2.7	241/353/427	186	294	24	0	25%	14%	124	+2.0
✕Chris Duncan 2009 · MLB	28	49→50	54→60	43→40	54	251/334/431	180	304	23	4	25%	11%	116	+2.5	210/285/330	120	266	13	5	25%	10%	76	-0.4	187/262/289	102	239	10	3	25%	9%	57	-1.0
●Brian Daubach 2001 · MLB	29	48→52	55→60	44→40	47	248/313/441	193	293	22	3	24%	8%	112	+2.2	254/332/458	204	305	24	3	24%	10%	122	+2.9	252/339/457	205	303	24	2	24%	11%	125	+2.1
✕Michael Saunders 2017 · MLB	30	49→54	55	41→55	51	250/329/447	197	317	22	4	27%	10%	118	+2.7	214/274/355	141	269	15	5	25%	7%	76	-0.4	186/236/294	108	233	10	3	24%	6%	46	-1.2
✕Stephen Piscotty 2020 · MLB	29	49→54	56→60	44→45	49	256/322/446	191	287	24	4	20%	8%	116	+2.5	235/292/393	158	292	20	7	26%	7%	93	+0.8	213/267/348	135	278	18	7	30%	6%	72	-0.2
●Matt Joyce 2014 · MLB	29	46→52	55→60	47→50	56	242/329/431	189	270	23	9	20%	11%	115	+2.4	231/329/387	156	279	17	4	22%	12%	105	+1.7	234/345/446	212	261	26	3	21%	14%	124	+1.9
●Lucas Duda 2015 · MLB	29	47→56	56→65	39→30	53	244/334/435	191	291	24	3	25%	11%	118	+2.6	242/330/471	229	281	29	2	25%	10%	125	+3.2	230/324/480	249	262	32	0	26%	10%	125	+2.2
✕Eric Valent 2005 · MLB	28	49	55→60	43→30	49	256/316/442	186	289	23	4	20%	8%	112	+2.2	223/293/353	130	277	14	4	23%	9%	84	+0.1	207/290/322	115	254	12	1	23%	10%	74	-0.3
✕Ricky Ledee 2004 · MLB	30	46→47	54→60	42→50	55	239/322/430	191	272	21	4	21%	11%	112	+2.2	245/320/419	174	287	19	6	21%	9%	108	+1.9	230/296/372	142	279	16	3	23%	8%	89	+0.2
✕Scott Schebler 2019 · MLB	28	46→52	56→60	44→50	47	242/311/432	191	278	24	6	23%	7%	109	+2.0	201/268/337	136	261	17	5	29%	7%	71	-0.8	164/223/270	106	233	12	4	34%	5%	37	-1.6
✕Hunter Dozier 2021 · MLB	29	50→55	56→60	50→45	51	255/331/457	202	318	23	6	26%	10%	121	+2.9	231/298/404	173	295	18	7	27%	8%	97	+1.1	212/272/371	159	276	17	5	29%	7%	80	-0.1
●Ben Broussard 2006 · MLB	29	50→55	56→60	46→45	49	257/320/459	202	288	22	5	19%	7%	118	+2.6	261/311/440	179	300	22	4	21%	6%	110	+2.1	255/303/423	168	293	23	3	21%	5%	104	+1.0
✕Trey Mancini 2021 · MLB	29	51→61	57→60	46→40	49	265/332/467	201	306	25	3	22%	8%	124	+3.1	246/316/408	162	300	19	2	24%	8%	105	+1.7	239/310/388	149	296	17	0	24%	8%	98	+1.0
●Connor Joe 2022 · MLB	29	48→51	52→50	45	55	246/336/415	169	291	20	4	22%	11%	114	+2.4	239/330/385	146	295	14	6	22%	11%	105	+1.7	233/329/375	143	289	12	5	22%	11%	103	+1.2
●Justin Bour 2017 · MLB	29	50→55	57→65	46→40	49	263/319/455	193	286	26	3	19%	8%	116	+2.5	251/330/460	209	288	28	3	23%	10%	122	+2.9	238/328/447	209	275	29	2	25%	11%	118	+1.9
✕Tyler White 2019 · MLB	28	48→57	56→60	42→40	50	254/325/448	194	289	25	4	22%	8%	117	+2.6	239/326/388	149	296	15	4	23%	11%	103	+1.6	202/299/319	118	254	12	3	24%	12%	78	-0.2
●Anthony Santander 2024 · MLB	29	46→48	58→65	43→45	49	245/313/451	206	273	27	4	22%	8%	114	+2.3	228/302/443	215	246	30	4	22%	9%	108	+1.9	214/291/442	228	216	34	1	21%	9%	104	+1.3

Michael Busch

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps