Jairo Iriarte

P Charlotte Knights

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 240 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIEFG #780

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	29	22	132	3.61	3.33	22.7%	11.5%	2.5	K 18.5% · BB 11.7% · FIP 3.95
2025	23	MIX2 levels	37	5	48	7.12	5.77	21.7%	16.1%	—	K 18.6% · BB 15.0% · FIP 5.28
2026	24	MIX2 levels	45	0	64	2.52	3.43	23.8%	10.4%	—	K 20.0% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.87
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	145	0	152	5.01	5.01	18.8%	12.8%	-0.8
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBCWS	70	0	73	4.89	4.86	19.9%	12.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBCWS	94	0	99	4.85	4.85	20.0%	12.0%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control40Command40FB velo40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsWillis Roberts (age 26) · Hunter Adkins (age 25) · Nick Hull (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%18.8%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP152

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—40

CMD3540

K†4550

FB (46%)

CH (14%)

SL (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	12	5	35	157	21	14	4	42%	2.9	9.1%	11.1%	-2.1%	3.6%	3.31	5.70	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	12	5	35	157	21	14	4	42%	2.9	13.4%	8.9%	4.5%	2.5%	3.31	4.57	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	30	145	34	13	6	50%	2.5	16.3%	10.9%	5.4%	6.5%	11.40	6.66	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	30	145	34	13	6	50%	2.5	23.4%	9.0%	14.5%	4.1%	11.40	4.73	—
2022	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	21	18	91	409	109	42	13	86%	4.3	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	4.4%	5.12	5.39	—
2022	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	21	18	91	409	109	42	13	86%	4.3	26.7%	10.3%	16.4%	3.2%	5.12	3.94	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	21	90	385	128	45	4	78%	3.3	26.1%	13.2%	12.9%	1.5%	3.49	3.41	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	21	90	385	128	45	4	78%	3.3	33.2%	11.7%	21.6%	1.0%	3.49	2.34	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	132	564	128	65	7	76%	4.6	18.5%	11.7%	6.8%	1.7%	3.61	3.95	+1.5
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	132	564	128	65	7	76%	4.6	18.5%	11.7%	6.8%	1.7%	3.61	3.95	+1.5
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	22	132	564	128	65	7	76%	4.6	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	1.2%	3.61	3.33	+2.5
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	5	48	230	50	37	9	14%	1.3	18.6%	15.0%	3.6%	3.4%	7.12	5.28	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	5	48	230	50	37	9	14%	1.3	18.6%	15.0%	3.6%	3.4%	7.12	5.28	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	5	48	230	50	37	9	14%	1.3	21.7%	16.1%	5.7%	3.9%	7.12	5.77	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	64	269	64	28	5	0%	1.4	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	2.1%	2.52	3.87	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	64	269	64	28	5	0%	1.4	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	2.1%	2.52	3.87	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	64	269	64	28	5	0%	1.4	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	1.9%	2.52	3.43	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	6	30	6	8	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	26.7%	-6.7%	0.0%	1.50	5.10	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	145	0	152	642	121	82	17	0%	1.0	18.8%	12.8%	6.0%	2.7%	5.01	5.01	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	145	0	152	642	127	78	18	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.2%	7.6%	2.8%	4.89	4.86	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	143	0	150	632	126	76	18	0%	1.0	20.0%	12.0%	8.0%	2.8%	4.85	4.85	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	138	0	145	613	122	73	18	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.9%	8.1%	2.9%	4.87	4.91	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	132	0	139	586	116	70	18	0%	1.1	19.8%	12.0%	7.8%	3.1%	4.95	5.02	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	124	0	130	551	107	68	18	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	3.3%	5.10	5.20	-0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	70	0	73	308	61	38	8	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.2%	7.6%	2.8%	4.89	4.86	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	94	0	99	418	84	50	12	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.0%	8.0%	2.8%	4.85	4.85	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	107	0	112	473	94	56	14	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.9%	8.1%	2.9%	4.87	4.91	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	110	0	115	486	96	58	15	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.0%	7.8%	3.1%	4.95	5.02	-0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	108	0	113	477	93	59	16	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	3.3%	5.10	5.20	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		494	0	518	2193	434	269	65	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	3.0%	4.90	4.60	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	846	168	104	25	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	3.0%	4.90	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		183	77	491	2159	420	262	62	42%	2.7	19.5%	12.1%	7.3%	2.9%	4.52	4.57	-3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	31	200	879	171	107	25	42%	2.7	19.5%	12.1%	7.3%	2.9%	4.52	4.57	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jairo Iriarte (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	18.8%	12.8%	2.7%	—	4.87	19.9%	7.9%	447	-0.14	—	—	—
Willis Roberts R 2001 · 4.29 FIP	26	SW	4.29	16.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.296	4.18	14.9%	5.7%	126	-0.11	3.73	258	75
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	71
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	71
Cam Sanders R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	22.2%	14.8%	3.1%	.232	4.30	25.8%	9.7%	170	-0.53	3.22	519	70
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	69
Erich Uelmen R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	25	SW	5.32	17.9%	11.0%	4.3%	.267	3.88	19.9%	9.1%	112	-1.44	3.48	383	69
Ryne Stanek R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	21.6%	12.1%	2.2%	.296	3.59	29.3%	19.0%	208	-0.43	2.96	771	68
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	68
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	68
Cody Martin R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	25	SW	4.58	19.6%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	4.25	19.9%	11.8%	277	-0.33	3.56	402	67
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	67
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	67
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	67
Fernando Nieve R 2006 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	17.0%	8.8%	4.4%	.240	4.67	14.3%	3.1%	37	-0.51	1.96	287	66
Jorge López R 2018 · 4.25 FIP	25	SW	4.25	17.1%	7.9%	2.9%	.307	4.86	19.5%	11.1%	284	+0.61	2.90	955	66
Owen White R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SP-	4.95	16.7%	9.7%	3.7%	.312	4.08	16.2%	5.0%	81	-0.87	2.99	402	66
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	66
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	66
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	66
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	146	19.6%	12.3%	1.12	4.92
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Rich Gale ('78-'84, 3 WAR*)	4.9	139	18.9%*	10.8%*	1.05*	4.94*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Bo Belinsky ('62-'70, -0 WAR*)	3.3	133	21.2%*	11.6%*	1.01*	4.96*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80