Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 8 | 35 | 141 | 56 | 12 | 2 | 89% | 3.9 | 29.6% | 10.5% | 19.1% | 1.9% | 3.06 | 3.00 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 8 | 35 | 141 | 56 | 12 | 2 | 89% | 3.9 | 39.7% | 8.5% | 31.2% | 1.4% | 3.06 | 1.68 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 80 | 328 | 104 | 23 | 8 | 93% | 5.4 | 24.7% | 8.0% | 16.7% | 2.6% | 3.59 | 3.44 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 80 | 328 | 104 | 23 | 8 | 93% | 5.4 | 31.7% | 7.0% | 24.7% | 2.4% | 3.59 | 2.66 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 24 | 113 | 483 | 84 | 57 | 17 | 89% | 4.2 | 14.4% | 12.7% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.47 | 5.45 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 24 | 113 | 483 | 84 | 57 | 17 | 89% | 4.2 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 4.47 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 15 | 102 | 465 | 87 | 49 | 15 | 47% | 3.2 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 6.18 | 5.29 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 15 | 102 | 465 | 87 | 49 | 15 | 47% | 3.2 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 6.18 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 17 | 88 | 381 | 71 | 46 | 8 | 74% | 3.8 | 16.5% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 4.81 | 4.10 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 17 | 88 | 381 | 71 | 46 | 8 | 74% | 3.8 | 18.6% | 12.1% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 4.81 | 4.24 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 46 | 41 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.5% | 13.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 5.44 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.3% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.35 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 47 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.7% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 5.33 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.3% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.35 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 30 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.7% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 5.33 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 12 | 85 | 373 | 60 | 46 | 13 | 60% | 4.3 | 16.0% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 6.57 | 5.19 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 28 | 200 | 875 | 141 | 108 | 31 | 60% | 4.3 | 16.0% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 6.57 | 5.19 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 106 | 78 | 418 | 1798 | 335 | 204 | 52 | 74% | 3.9 | 18.6% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.57 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 37 | 200 | 860 | 160 | 98 | 25 | 74% | 3.9 | 18.6% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.57 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Owen White (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.44 | 15.5% | 13.9% | 2.7% | — | 5.37 | 16.5% | 3.0% | 136 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Luis Niebla R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 72 |
| Noah Song R 2026 · 6.24 FIP | 26 | SP | 6.24 | 12.0% | 13.2% | 4.5% | .239 | 4.28 | 17.8% | 4.6% | 85 | -1.96 | 3.62 | 106 | 72 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 70 |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 67 |
| Darien Smith R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 102 | 67 |
| Zach Fruit R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.83 | 15.4% | 15.6% | 1.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 151 | 66 |
| James Proctor R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.35 | 14.0% | 12.5% | 1.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 109 | 66 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2025 · 6.10 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.10 | 15.6% | 15.0% | 4.4% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 252 | 65 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 65 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.9% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 107 | 65 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.18 | 23.8% | 17.4% | 3.4% | .314 | 8.89 | 13.5% | -3.3% | 29 | +3.71 | 4.21 | 347 | 65 |
| Drake Fellows R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.39 | 16.2% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .293 | 4.64 | 16.3% | 6.7% | 150 | -0.75 | 4.58 | 226 | 65 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 65 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.19 | 16.8% | 12.4% | 3.5% | .309 | 5.12 | 23.8% | 9.5% | 47 | -0.07 | 4.09 | 414 | 65 |
| Michael Murray R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.45 | 16.2% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 116 | 64 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 64 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 64 |
| Ernesto Zaragoza R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.26 | 13.1% | 10.9% | 1.6% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 239 | 64 |
| Logan Clayton R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 11.2% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 206 | 63 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 16.1% | 13.6% | 1.10 | 5.37 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |