J.T. Ginn

P Athletics

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.6 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	29	26	137	5.00	3.93	21.0%	8.0%	2.4	K 18.5% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.27
2025	26	MIX2 levels	28	21	112	4.51	3.93	27.1%	8.2%	2.0	K 26.2% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.02
2026	27	MLBOAK	27	24	138	3.71	4.16	20.9%	9.7%	2.0
2027PROJ	28	MLBOAK	10	10	57	4.37	4.51	21.9%	8.8%	0.6
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBOAK	12	12	75	4.50	4.63	21.3%	9.0%	0.6
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBOAK	10	10	61	4.70	4.83	20.6%	9.3%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.227First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$1M2029Arb-2$1M2030Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs50

K%41

FB Velo36

Form4.66 ERA (proj 4.37) · K 17.1% (proj 21.9%) · BB 6.5% (proj 8.8%) ▼ last 90d · 29 IP through Oct 27

CompsBrad Peacock (age 28) · Chase Anderson (age 28) · David Phelps (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.37

FIP4.51

K%21.9%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p4120.9%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.227 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$1.0M
2029	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.2M
2030	Arb-3	$1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	92	370	81	21	3	100%	5.1	16.6%	6.6%	10.0%	1.1%	3.03	3.12	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	92	370	81	21	3	100%	5.1	21.9%	5.7%	16.2%	0.8%	3.03	2.45	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	42	186	46	14	3	100%	3.5	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	2.8%	5.10	4.11	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	42	186	46	14	3	100%	3.5	24.7%	7.5%	17.2%	1.6%	5.10	2.84	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	27	130	17	16	2	100%	3.3	8.2%	13.2%	-5.0%	2.3%	7.43	5.36	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	27	130	17	16	2	100%	3.3	13.1%	12.3%	0.8%	1.5%	7.43	4.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	137	599	126	48	17	90%	4.7	18.5%	7.7%	10.9%	3.2%	5.00	4.27	+1.8
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	137	599	126	48	17	90%	4.7	18.5%	7.7%	10.9%	3.2%	5.00	4.27	+1.8
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	26	137	599	126	48	17	90%	4.7	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	2.8%	5.00	3.93	+2.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	112	476	129	39	18	75%	4.0	26.2%	8.0%	18.2%	3.9%	4.51	4.02	+1.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	112	476	129	39	18	75%	4.0	26.2%	8.0%	18.2%	3.9%	4.51	4.02	+1.8
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	21	112	476	129	39	18	75%	4.0	27.1%	8.2%	18.9%	3.8%	4.51	3.93	+2.0
2026	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	27	24	138	580	121	56	17	89%	5.1	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.0%	3.71	4.21	+1.9
2026	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	27	24	138	580	121	56	17	89%	5.1	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.0%	3.71	4.21	+1.9
2026	27	MLB RAW	Athletics	27	24	138	580	121	56	17	89%	5.1	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	2.9%	3.71	4.16	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			58	46	263	1114	249	94	38	79%	4.5	22.4%	8.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.25	4.16	+3.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	OAK	10	10	57	241	53	21	8	100%	5.7	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	3.2%	4.37	4.51	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	79	332	71	30	11	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	3.4%	4.55	4.68	+0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	64	269	55	25	10	100%	5.8	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	3.6%	4.75	4.88	+0.4
2030	31	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	50	212	42	20	8	100%	6.3	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.8%	4.97	5.11	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	75	317	68	29	10	100%	6.2	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.50	4.63	+0.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	61	258	53	24	9	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	3.5%	4.70	4.83	+0.4
2030	31	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	48	203	40	20	8	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.7%	4.92	5.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	76	446	1886	409	166	65	86%	5.1	21.7%	8.8%	12.9%	3.4%	4.42	4.27	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	34	200	847	184	75	29	86%	5.0	21.7%	8.8%	12.9%	3.4%	4.42	4.27	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		122	109	548	2341	467	199	67	89%	4.5	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.07	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	855	171	73	25	89%	4.5	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.07	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 21 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.34 (+0.24)K% 35.7% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.71%	—	×0.860	30.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×0.900	9.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.183	×1.100	1.11%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 72 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.47 (+0.30)K% 21.2% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.23%	—	×0.860	18.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.23%	—	×0.900	8.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.001	×1.100	3.38%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 30 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.30 (+0.78)K% 21.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.21%	—	×0.810	17.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.100	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.940	×1.200	2.90%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 22 IPFIP 4.78 → 5.36 (+0.57)K% 10.2% → 8.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.19%	—	×0.810	8.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.04%	—	×1.100	13.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷0.957	×1.200	2.32%

Result: FIP 4.78 → 5.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Athletics · 4 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.69 (+1.17)K% 27.3% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.680	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.250	17.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.989	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMidland RockHounds · 35 IPFIP 3.07 → 4.11 (+1.04)K% 25.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.31%	—	×0.810	20.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.100	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷0.793	×1.200	2.80%

Result: FIP 3.07 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Athletics · 7 IPFIP 1.34 → 1.90 (+0.56)K% 20.8% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.680	14.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.950	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.34 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 53 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.47 (+0.50)K% 20.7% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.72%	—	×0.770	15.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.95%	—	×1.150	5.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.T. Ginn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	21.9%	8.8%	3.2%	—	4.86	20.7%	11.4%	192	+0.35	—	—	—
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	80
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	79
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	72
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	71
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	68
Victor Santos R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP	4.67	13.9%	8.1%	3.1%	.278	4.90	16.0%	7.8%	179	+0.23	4.09	602	66
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	66
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	66
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	66
Sam Gaviglio R 2018 · 4.31 FIP	28	SP	4.31	19.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.298	4.27	21.5%	16.3%	122	-0.04	3.66	754	65
Paul Clemens R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	17.6%	9.1%	3.3%	.271	4.72	14.9%	3.9%	53	+0.14	4.58	345	65
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	64
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	64
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	64
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	468	64
Dane Dunning R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	28	SP-	3.84	19.4%	7.6%	2.6%	.282	4.37	20.2%	11.5%	242	+0.53	2.62	950	63
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	63
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	63
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	63
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	74	21.7%	8.9%	1.33	4.44
Keith Atherton ('83-'89, 2 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.9%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.24*
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Pete Mikkelsen ('64-'72, 1 WAR*)	3.3	73	20.1%*	9.3%*	1.12*	4.15*
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64