J.T. Ginn
P
Athletics
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 94
ERA4.15
FIP4.23
K%22.0%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 172 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p6327.3%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
FB+5.3 (46%)
CH+1.9 (20%)
SI (34%)
CT-2.0 (18%)
SL-3.8 (16%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 92 | 370 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.6% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 1.1% | 3.03 | 3.13 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 92 | 370 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.9% | 5.7% | 16.2% | 0.8% | 3.03 | 2.45 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 42 | 186 | 46 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 4.66 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 42 | 186 | 46 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 24.7% | 7.5% | 17.2% | 1.6% | 5.10 | 2.84 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 8 | 27 | 130 | 17 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 8.2% | 13.2% | -5.0% | 2.4% | 7.43 | 5.42 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 8 | 27 | 130 | 17 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 13.1% | 12.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 7.43 | 4.60 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 26 | 137 | 599 | 126 | 48 | 17 | 90% | 4.7 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 4.35 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 26 | 137 | 599 | 126 | 48 | 17 | 90% | 4.7 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 3.93 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 112 | 476 | 129 | 39 | 18 | 75% | 4.0 | 26.3% | 8.3% | 18.1% | 3.9% | 4.51 | 4.07 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 112 | 476 | 129 | 39 | 18 | 75% | 4.0 | 27.1% | 8.2% | 18.9% | 3.8% | 4.51 | 3.93 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Athletics | 21 | 18 | 103 | 434 | 93 | 45 | 13 | 86% | 4.9 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 3.67 | 4.25 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 69 | 290 | 64 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 64 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 172 | 724 | 157 | 72 | 23 | — | — | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 3.86 | 4.24 | +2.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 172 | 725 | 157 | 72 | 22 | — | — | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 3.85 | 4.22 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 70 | 293 | 65 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 60 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 62 | 263 | 55 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 61 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 57 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 52 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 83 | 484 | 2053 | 455 | 187 | 71 | 87% | 5.1 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 4.45 | 4.28 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 34 | 200 | 848 | 188 | 77 | 29 | 87% | 5.1 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 4.45 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 116 | 103 | 512 | 2195 | 441 | 194 | 65 | 89% | 4.4 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.15 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 40 | 200 | 857 | 172 | 76 | 25 | 89% | 4.4 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| J.T. Ginn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 23.1% | 7.9% | 3.6% | — | 4.86 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 198 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 75 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 75 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 75 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 74 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 73 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 73 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 72 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 72 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 71 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 71 |
| Jesse Scholtens R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.97 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .314 | 4.44 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 215 | +0.47 | 3.13 | 825 | 71 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 71 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 435 | 71 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 71 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 71 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 71 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 70 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.40 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 4.5% | .325 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 107 | -1.00 | 4.00 | 464 | 70 |
| Matt Cain R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 1.38 | 4.67 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |