J.T. Ginn — OGILVIE

J.T. Ginn P Athletics

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.7 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION138 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 95

ERA4.23

FIP4.30

K%21.4%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p4120.9%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

FB+5.3 (48%)

CH+1.9 (20%)

SI (37%)

CU (3%)

CT-2.0 (16%)

SL-3.8 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.227 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	92	370	81	21	3	100%	5.1	16.6%	6.6%	10.0%	1.1%	3.03	3.12	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	92	370	81	21	3	100%	5.1	21.9%	5.7%	16.2%	0.8%	3.03	2.45	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	42	186	46	14	3	100%	3.5	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	2.8%	5.10	4.11	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	42	186	46	14	3	100%	3.5	24.7%	7.5%	17.2%	1.6%	5.10	2.84	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	27	130	17	16	2	100%	3.3	8.2%	13.2%	-5.0%	2.3%	7.43	5.36	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	27	130	17	16	2	100%	3.3	8.2%	13.2%	-5.0%	2.3%	7.43	5.36	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	27	130	17	16	2	100%	3.3	13.1%	12.3%	0.8%	1.5%	7.43	4.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	137	599	126	48	17	90%	4.7	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	3.2%	5.00	4.30	+1.0
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	137	599	126	48	17	90%	4.7	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	3.2%	5.00	4.30	+1.0
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	26	137	599	126	48	17	90%	4.7	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	2.8%	5.00	3.93	+1.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	112	476	129	39	18	75%	4.0	26.0%	8.0%	18.0%	3.9%	4.51	4.03	+1.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	112	476	129	39	18	75%	4.0	26.0%	8.0%	18.0%	3.9%	4.51	4.03	+1.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	21	112	476	129	39	18	75%	4.0	27.1%	8.2%	18.9%	3.8%	4.51	3.93	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			58	46	263	1114	249	94	38	79%	4.5	22.4%	8.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.25	4.16	+2.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	27	24	138	580	121	56	17	89%	5.1	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.0%	3.71	4.21	+1.1
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	27	24	138	580	121	56	17	89%	5.1	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.0%	3.71	4.21	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	OAK	27	24	138	580	121	56	17	89%	5.1	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	2.9%	3.71	4.17	+1.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	OAK	27	24	138	580	121	56	17	89%	5.1	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	2.9%	3.71	4.17	+1.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	OAK	1	1	2	7	1	1	0	100%	1.6	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.4%	4.23	4.30	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	OAK	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.3%	4.19	4.26	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	140	587	122	57	17	—	—	20.9%	9.6%	11.2%	2.9%	3.71	4.21	+1.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	140	591	122	57	17	—	—	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.9%	3.71	4.16	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	70	293	63	27	10	100%	5.8	21.4%	9.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.58	4.64	+0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	66	280	58	26	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.3%	11.5%	3.5%	4.71	4.80	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	62	263	53	25	10	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	3.7%	4.89	5.01	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	66	279	60	25	9	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.0%	12.3%	3.2%	4.53	4.59	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	63	266	55	25	9	100%	6.3	20.8%	9.3%	11.5%	3.4%	4.66	4.75	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	59	249	50	24	9	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	3.6%	4.84	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	78	453	1916	416	168	65	87%	5.0	21.7%	8.8%	12.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.25	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	34	200	847	184	74	29	87%	5.0	21.7%	8.8%	12.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		122	109	548	2341	464	199	67	89%	4.5	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.08	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	855	169	73	25	89%	4.5	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.08	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.T. Ginn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	22.8%	7.6%	3.5%	—	4.81	20.8%	11.5%	198	+0.34	—	—	—
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	77
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	76
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	76
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	76
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	75
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	74
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	73
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	73
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	73
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	73
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	73
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	72
Jesse Scholtens R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	20.8%	8.2%	3.3%	.314	4.58	19.0%	11.3%	215	+0.40	3.40	876	72
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	71
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	71
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	71
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	71
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	71
Nick Tropeano R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	27	SP	5.28	20.3%	9.2%	5.0%	.251	4.48	21.5%	11.8%	155	-0.80	2.34	446	71
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	66	21.3%	8.9%	1.35	4.64
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47