Dane Dunning
P
Tacoma Rainiers
+0.5
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.50
FIP4.51
xFIP4.34
SIERA3.74
K%20.9%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%12.6%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†4545
FB Velo
p1089.7
Whiff%
p4925.1%
K%
p5022.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.361
CT+1.5 (40%)
SI (30%)
CU (3%)
CH (18%)
FB-1.5 (30%)
SL-2.9 (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 26 | 26 | 144 | 605 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 2.94 | 3.51 | +2.9 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 15 | 15 | 86 | 360 | 100 | 26 | 2 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 0.7% | 2.71 | 2.62 | +2.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 7 | 7 | 34 | 142 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 27 | 25 | 118 | 511 | 114 | 43 | 13 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 4.51 | 3.58 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 30 | 30 | 158 | 691 | 146 | 63 | 21 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.16 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 35 | 26 | 173 | 722 | 140 | 55 | 20 | 19.4% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 3.63 | +3.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 31 | 19 | 112 | 497 | 109 | 45 | 19 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 4.51 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 30 | 14 | 90 | 396 | 86 | 29 | 11 | 19.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 5.20 | 4.07 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 4 | 4 | 17 | 70 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 4.24 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 73 | 34 | 13 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.76 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 113 | 477 | 90 | 40 | 16 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 68 | 33 | 13 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.88 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 62 | 32 | 13 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 5.01 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 57 | 31 | 12 | 16.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.15 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 58 | 28 | 12 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.03 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 52 | 27 | 12 | 16.5% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.13 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 206 | 167 | 934 | 4000 | 843 | 330 | 103 | 21.1% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 3.78 | +16.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 36 | 200 | 856 | 180 | 71 | 22 | 21.1% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 3.78 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dane Dunning (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.01 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 264 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Sam LeCure R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.16 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 91 | -0.25 | 4.16 | 171 | 58 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.00 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.5% | .313 | 5.07 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | +0.07 | 4.87 | 294 | 56 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2024 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.28 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 327 | 55 |
| Yohan Pino R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 55 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.25 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | +0.10 | 4.25 | 171 | 54 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 53 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.95 | 14.9% | 7.2% | 4.0% | .277 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 8.8% | 259 | +0.24 | 3.94 | 567 | 52 |
| Scott Feldman R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.32 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.16 | 3.98 | 297 | 52 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | .341 | 3.71 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 59 | -0.92 | 2.98 | 598 | 52 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.05 | 14.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 352 | +0.27 | 3.76 | 455 | 51 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 51 |
| Kyle Kendrick R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.42 | 15.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.55 | 13.8% | 9.9% | 102 | +1.13 | 4.42 | 337 | 50 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.73 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.73 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 5.5% | .277 | 4.50 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 81 | -1.23 | 3.40 | 556 | 50 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 4.1% | .311 | 5.22 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 34 | +0.64 | 4.58 | 261 | 50 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 49 |
| Ervin Santana R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 49 |
| Jeremy Hellickson R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | .244 | 4.67 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 56 | +0.73 | 3.86 | 646 | 49 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2029 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.81 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .281 | 5.01 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.20 | 3.81 | 162 | 49 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2024 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 135 | 49 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 49 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.