Dane Dunning

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX3 levels	31	19	112	5.21	4.56	21.9%	9.1%	1.1	K 21.7% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.42
2025	30	MIX2 levels	30	14	90	5.20	3.74	21.7%	7.3%	0.9	K 19.4% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.98
2026	31	MIX2 levels	12	11	43	7.17	5.30	21.5%	12.6%	—	K 17.8% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.06
2027PROJ	32	MLBSEA	2	2	10	4.81	4.88	18.3%	9.1%	0.1
2028PROJ	33	MLBSEA	12	12	72	5.02	5.16	17.4%	9.5%	0.2
2029PROJ	34	MLBSEA	10	10	63	5.12	5.19	18.5%	9.2%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%50

FB Velo10

xwOBA vs10

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Juan Delgadillo (age 32) · Yohan Pino (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.81

FIP4.88

K%18.3%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.7

Whiff%

p4925.1%

p5022.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	144	605	168	38	15	100%	5.5	21.2%	7.2%	14.0%	2.4%	2.94	3.56	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	144	605	168	38	15	100%	5.5	27.8%	6.3%	21.5%	2.5%	2.94	2.91	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	86	360	100	26	2	100%	5.8	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	0.7%	2.71	2.62	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	86	360	100	26	2	100%	5.8	27.8%	7.2%	20.6%	0.6%	2.71	1.99	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	7	7	34	142	35	13	4	100%	4.9	24.6%	9.2%	15.5%	2.8%	3.97	3.70	+0.7
2020	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	7	7	34	142	35	13	4	100%	4.9	24.6%	9.2%	15.5%	2.8%	3.97	3.72	+0.7
2021	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	27	25	118	511	114	43	13	93%	4.4	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	2.4%	4.51	3.58	+2.6
2021	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	27	25	118	511	114	43	13	93%	4.4	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	2.5%	4.51	3.69	+2.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	158	691	146	63	21	100%	5.3	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	2.8%	4.43	4.07	+2.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	158	691	146	63	21	100%	5.3	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.0%	4.43	4.17	+2.3
2023	28	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	35	26	173	722	140	55	20	74%	4.9	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	2.6%	3.70	3.84	+3.2
2023	28	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	35	26	173	722	140	55	20	74%	4.9	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	2.8%	3.70	3.94	+3.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	19	112	497	109	45	19	61%	3.6	21.7%	9.1%	12.7%	3.7%	5.21	4.42	+1.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	19	112	497	109	45	19	61%	3.6	21.7%	9.1%	12.7%	3.7%	5.21	4.42	+1.3
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	19	112	497	109	45	19	61%	3.6	21.9%	9.1%	12.9%	3.8%	5.21	4.56	+1.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	90	396	86	29	11	47%	3.0	19.4%	6.7%	12.7%	3.0%	5.20	3.98	+0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	90	396	86	29	11	47%	3.0	19.4%	6.7%	12.7%	3.0%	5.20	3.98	+0.6
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	14	90	396	86	29	11	47%	3.0	21.7%	7.3%	14.4%	2.8%	5.20	3.74	+0.9
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	43	191	41	24	8	92%	3.6	17.8%	11.7%	6.0%	3.6%	7.17	5.06	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	43	191	41	24	8	92%	3.6	17.8%	11.7%	6.0%	3.6%	7.17	5.06	—
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	43	191	41	24	8	92%	3.6	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	4.2%	7.17	5.30	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			136	102	593	2562	538	218	79	75%	4.4	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.44	4.12	+9.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	SEA	2	2	10	42	8	4	1	100%	5.0	18.3%	9.1%	9.2%	3.3%	4.81	4.88	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	72	306	53	29	11	100%	6.0	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	3.5%	5.02	5.16	+0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	63	266	49	25	10	100%	6.3	18.5%	9.2%	9.3%	3.8%	5.12	5.19	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	72	304	53	29	11	100%	6.0	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	3.5%	5.02	5.16	+0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	63	266	49	25	10	100%	6.3	18.5%	9.2%	9.3%	3.8%	5.12	5.19	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		159	125	729	3134	641	272	100	79%	4.6	20.4%	8.7%	11.8%	3.2%	4.56	4.22	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	34	200	860	176	75	27	79%	4.6	20.4%	8.7%	11.8%	3.2%	4.56	4.22	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		214	174	960	4121	860	342	108	81%	4.5	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	2.6%	4.19	3.83	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	36	200	859	179	71	23	81%	4.5	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	2.6%	4.19	3.83	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 41 IPFIP 4.80 → 5.06 (+0.26)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.65%	—	×0.860	17.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×0.900	11.74%
HR / BF /BF	3.26%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.80 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 69 IPFIP 3.52 → 3.86 (+0.34)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.59%	—	×0.860	18.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×0.900	6.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷0.961	×1.100	2.66%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 15 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.14 (+0.35)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.860	22.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×0.900	7.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷0.928	×1.100	1.72%

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Rangers · 5 IPFIP 2.68 → 5.08 (+2.41)K% 45.0% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.00%	—	×0.680	30.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.250	6.25%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.018	×1.400	6.88%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABirmingham Barons · 62 IPFIP 1.99 → 2.52 (+0.53)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.34%	—	×0.810	21.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.78%	—	×1.100	9.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.949	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.99 → 2.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 24 IPFIP 1.94 → 2.87 (+0.93)K% 31.6% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.63%	—	×0.770	24.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.06%	—	×1.150	3.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.014	×1.250	2.52%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 118 IPFIP 3.37 → 3.99 (+0.62)K% 26.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.42%	—	×0.770	20.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.05%	—	×1.150	8.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.275	×1.250	2.88%

Result: FIP 3.37 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AKannapolis Intimidators · 26 IPFIP 0.40 → 1.22 (+0.82)K% 35.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.11%	—	×0.740	25.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.13%	—	×1.180	2.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.824	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 0.40 → 1.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dane Dunning (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	5.17	17.9%	8.6%	136	+0.29	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	67
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	66
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	66
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	64
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	64
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	63
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	63
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	32	SP	3.88	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	.245	4.27	13.6%	7.2%	58	+0.39	2.23	173	63
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	62
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	62
Logan Verrett R 2022 · 3.84 FIP	32	SP	3.84	17.5%	5.5%	2.8%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	550	62
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	689	61
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	61
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	60
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	60
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	59
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	59
César Valdez R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	32	SP-	3.91	16.4%	5.3%	2.8%	.296	2.65	18.7%	15.4%	162	-1.26	1.91	902	59
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	59
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	92	20.2%	8.8%	1.24	4.59
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Mike Paul ('68-'74, 2 WAR*)	3.1	105	22.4%*	8.7%*	1.22*	4.77*
Lerrin LaGrow ('70-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.9	87	16.8%*	9.1%*	1.23*	4.50*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71