Dane Dunning
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126116vR 107
ERA4.58
FIP4.71
K%19.1%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.7
Whiff%
p4925.1%
K%
p5022.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.361
CT+1.5 (40%)
SI (30%)
CU (3%)
CH (18%)
FB-1.5 (30%)
SL-2.9 (9%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.12 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.10 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 144 | 605 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 2.94 | 3.32 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 144 | 605 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 27.8% | 6.3% | 21.5% | 2.5% | 2.94 | 2.91 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 86 | 360 | 100 | 26 | 2 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 0.7% | 2.71 | 2.61 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 86 | 360 | 100 | 26 | 2 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.8% | 7.2% | 20.6% | 0.6% | 2.71 | 1.99 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 7 | 7 | 34 | 142 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.67 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 7 | 7 | 34 | 142 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 27 | 25 | 118 | 511 | 114 | 43 | 13 | 93% | 4.4 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.51 | 3.64 | +2.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 27 | 25 | 118 | 511 | 114 | 43 | 13 | 93% | 4.4 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.51 | 3.69 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 158 | 691 | 146 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.14 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 158 | 691 | 146 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.17 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 35 | 26 | 173 | 722 | 140 | 55 | 20 | 74% | 4.9 | 19.4% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 3.91 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 35 | 26 | 173 | 722 | 140 | 55 | 20 | 74% | 4.9 | 19.4% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 3.70 | 3.94 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 19 | 112 | 497 | 109 | 45 | 19 | 61% | 3.6 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 19 | 112 | 497 | 109 | 45 | 19 | 61% | 3.6 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 14 | 90 | 396 | 86 | 29 | 11 | 47% | 3.0 | 19.7% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 5.20 | 4.11 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 14 | 90 | 396 | 86 | 29 | 11 | 47% | 3.0 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 5.20 | 3.74 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 10 | 10 | 40 | 181 | 37 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 4.0 | 18.0% | 13.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.92 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.1% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SEA | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.1% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 105 | 455 | 89 | 45 | 15 | — | — | 19.7% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 5.48 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 19.1% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 69 | 32 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.97 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 82 | 345 | 60 | 31 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 69 | 32 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.97 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 61 | 31 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 166 | 132 | 771 | 3311 | 673 | 284 | 106 | 80% | 4.6 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.24 | +10.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 34 | 200 | 859 | 175 | 74 | 28 | 80% | 4.6 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 212 | 173 | 958 | 4111 | 860 | 348 | 109 | 82% | 4.5 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 3.86 | +17.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 36 | 200 | 859 | 180 | 73 | 23 | 82% | 4.5 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dane Dunning (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 19.1% | 8.2% | 3.3% | — | 5.10 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 171 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 57 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 57 |
| Phil Hughes R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.03 | 15.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | .328 | 6.34 | 21.1% | 15.2% | 33 | +1.31 | 4.61 | 301 | 56 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 55 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.30 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 200 | 54 |
| Yohan Pino R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 54 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 54 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 53 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 52 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 51 |
| Mat Latos R 2024 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 51 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.43 | 14.9% | 7.2% | 4.9% | .277 | 5.21 | 16.3% | 8.8% | 259 | -0.22 | 3.84 | 567 | 50 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 50 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 49 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.04 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.7% | .261 | 4.12 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 96 | +0.08 | 2.88 | 533 | 49 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.25 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 352 | +0.03 | 3.59 | 455 | 49 |
| Danny Gutierrez R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 15.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .362 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 239 | 49 |
| Kameron Loe R 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.90 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.47 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 133 | -0.43 | 3.47 | 201 | 48 |
| A.J. Griffin R 2024 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 5.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 196 | 48 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 48 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 89 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 1.37 | 4.81 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Daniel Mengden ('19) | 4 | 73 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 1.24 | 4.68 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |
| Doug Fister ('18) | 4 | 110 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 1.19 | 4.56 |