Dane Dunning — OGILVIE

Dane Dunning P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.54

FIP4.65

K%18.8%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.7

Whiff%

p4925.1%

p5022.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

CT+1.5 (40%)

SI (30%)

CU (3%)

CH (18%)

FB-1.5 (30%)

SL-2.9 (9%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	100%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	144	605	168	38	15	100%	5.5	21.2%	7.2%	14.0%	2.4%	2.94	3.56	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	144	605	168	38	15	100%	5.5	27.8%	6.3%	21.5%	2.5%	2.94	2.91	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	86	360	100	26	2	100%	5.8	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	0.7%	2.71	2.62	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	86	360	100	26	2	100%	5.8	27.8%	7.2%	20.6%	0.6%	2.71	1.99	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	7	7	34	142	35	13	4	100%	4.9	24.6%	9.2%	15.5%	2.8%	3.97	3.70	+0.5
2020	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	7	7	34	142	35	13	4	100%	4.9	24.6%	9.2%	15.5%	2.8%	3.97	3.72	+0.5
2021	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	27	25	118	511	114	43	13	93%	4.4	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	2.4%	4.51	3.58	+1.9
2021	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	27	25	118	511	114	43	13	93%	4.4	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	2.5%	4.51	3.69	+1.7
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	158	691	146	63	21	100%	5.3	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	2.8%	4.43	4.07	+1.6
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	158	691	146	63	21	100%	5.3	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.0%	4.43	4.17	+1.4
2023	28	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	35	26	173	722	140	55	20	74%	4.9	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	2.6%	3.70	3.84	+2.2
2023	28	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	35	26	173	722	140	55	20	74%	4.9	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	2.6%	3.70	3.84	+2.2
2023	28	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	35	26	173	722	140	55	20	74%	4.9	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	2.8%	3.70	3.94	+2.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	19	112	497	109	45	19	61%	3.6	21.6%	9.1%	12.6%	3.7%	5.21	4.43	+0.6
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	19	112	497	109	45	19	61%	3.6	21.6%	9.1%	12.6%	3.7%	5.21	4.43	+0.6
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	19	112	497	109	45	19	61%	3.6	21.9%	9.1%	12.9%	3.8%	5.21	4.56	+0.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	90	396	86	29	11	47%	3.0	18.9%	6.7%	12.2%	3.0%	5.20	4.02	+0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	90	396	86	29	11	47%	3.0	18.9%	6.7%	12.2%	3.0%	5.20	4.02	+0.6
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	14	90	396	86	29	11	47%	3.0	21.7%	7.3%	14.4%	2.8%	5.20	3.74	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			136	102	593	2562	538	218	79	75%	4.4	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.44	4.12	+5.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	11	11	42	188	40	23	8	100%	3.8	17.0%	11.4%	5.5%	3.6%	7.34	5.12	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	11	11	42	188	40	23	8	100%	3.8	17.0%	11.4%	5.5%	3.6%	7.34	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AA RAW	SEA	1	1	1	7	3	0	2	100%	1.3	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	28.6%	20.25	15.16	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	SEA	10	10	40	181	37	23	6	100%	4.0	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	3.3%	6.92	4.80	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	SEA	1	1	8	34	6	3	1	100%	8.1	18.8%	7.8%	11.0%	3.2%	4.54	4.65	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	50	222	46	26	9	—	—	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	4.1%	6.89	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	89	376	68	31	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	8.2%	9.8%	3.5%	4.76	4.90	0.0
2028	33	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	82	345	59	30	13	100%	5.8	17.2%	8.6%	8.5%	3.7%	5.01	5.18	-0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	SEA	15	15	89	376	68	31	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	8.2%	9.8%	3.5%	4.76	4.90	0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	82	346	59	30	13	100%	5.9	17.2%	8.6%	8.5%	3.7%	5.01	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	131	765	3287	666	279	105	79%	4.6	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.54	4.22	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	34	200	859	174	73	27	79%	4.6	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.54	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		213	174	959	4118	856	341	108	82%	4.5	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	2.6%	4.19	3.83	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	859	178	71	23	82%	4.5	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	2.6%	4.19	3.83	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dane Dunning (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	18.8%	7.8%	3.2%	—	5.03	17.6%	9.2%	171	+0.38	—	—	—
Phil Hughes R 2017 · 5.04 FIP	31	SP-	5.04	15.6%	4.5%	4.9%	.328	5.95	21.1%	15.2%	33	+0.91	4.62	301	67
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	61
Mat Latos R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	29	SP	5.66	16.8%	11.2%	4.7%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	244	60
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	533	58
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	57
Yu Darvish R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	31	SP	4.50	27.2%	11.7%	4.0%	.282	3.48	30.5%	24.0%	421	-1.02	1.97	1,253	56
Sam Gaviglio R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	31	SP	3.66	18.4%	3.7%	3.0%	.357	4.97	19.2%	10.3%	67	+1.31	3.66	754	55
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	55
A.J. Griffin R 2017 · 5.75 FIP	29	SP	5.75	18.0%	8.3%	5.7%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	5.35	196	55
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	54
André Rienzo R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	31	SP	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	200	54
Félix Hernández R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	31	SP	4.56	22.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.278	5.08	18.0%	9.7%	227	+0.52	3.60	682	54
Tim Lincecum R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SP	4.20	18.0%	10.8%	2.3%	.296	5.02	17.4%	6.3%	89	+0.82	4.20	166	54
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	53
Yovani Gallardo R 2017 · 5.31 FIP	31	SP-	5.31	16.3%	9.9%	4.3%	.283	4.33	14.9%	5.3%	144	-0.98	3.90	577	53
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	52
Jeremy Hellickson R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	31	SP	3.90	17.6%	5.1%	3.0%	.244	4.93	17.8%	9.3%	56	+1.03	3.74	646	52
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	52
Sean O'Sullivan R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	29	SP-	5.76	11.9%	11.7%	4.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	290	51
Chris Bassitt R 2020 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP	3.53	21.1%	6.5%	2.5%	.273	3.54	23.2%	16.7%	539	+0.01	3.02	1,554	51

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	89	18.0%	8.2%	1.34	4.76
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Alec Mills ('21)	1.1	72	19.0%	6.9%	1.41	4.51