Michael Arias — OGILVIE

Michael Arias P Somerset Patriots

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%22.2%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	16	0	23	100	22	14	2	0%	1.5	15.0%	17.5%	-2.5%	1.8%	3.09	5.06	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	16	0	23	100	22	14	2	0%	1.5	22.0%	14.0%	8.0%	2.0%	3.09	4.13	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	17	82	23	22	2	100%	1.7	20.1%	32.8%	-12.7%	4.8%	4.76	8.18	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	17	82	23	22	2	100%	1.7	28.0%	26.8%	1.2%	2.4%	4.76	5.81	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	81	352	110	51	3	100%	3.7	23.5%	16.9%	6.6%	1.0%	4.09	3.79	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	81	352	110	51	3	100%	3.7	23.5%	16.9%	6.6%	1.0%	4.09	3.79	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	81	352	110	51	3	100%	3.7	31.2%	14.5%	16.8%	0.9%	4.09	2.76	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	60	286	72	46	5	0%	1.2	20.7%	15.3%	5.4%	2.1%	4.77	4.42	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	60	286	72	46	5	0%	1.2	20.7%	15.3%	5.4%	2.1%	4.77	4.42	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	60	286	72	46	5	0%	1.2	25.2%	16.1%	9.1%	1.7%	4.77	4.08	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	3	30	133	36	17	2	13%	1.3	24.5%	17.2%	7.3%	2.4%	2.73	4.54	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	3	30	133	36	17	2	13%	1.3	24.5%	17.2%	7.3%	2.4%	2.73	4.54	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	3	30	133	36	17	2	13%	1.3	27.1%	12.8%	14.3%	1.5%	2.73	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	41	0	51	231	55	24	8	0%	1.2	19.3%	11.4%	7.9%	4.2%	5.47	5.20	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	41	0	51	231	55	24	8	0%	1.2	19.3%	11.4%	7.9%	4.2%	5.47	5.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	NYY	41	0	51	231	55	24	8	0%	1.2	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	3.5%	5.47	4.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	52	0	55	232	53	31	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.4%	9.3%	2.7%	4.83	4.75	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	52	0	55	232	53	30	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.1%	9.9%	2.7%	4.74	4.70	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	23	0	24	101	23	14	3	0%	1.0	22.7%	13.4%	9.3%	2.7%	4.83	4.75	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	35	0	37	156	36	20	4	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.1%	9.9%	2.7%	4.74	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	257	59	34	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.2%	9.7%	2.7%	4.78	4.34	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	112	23	0%	1.1	22.9%	13.2%	9.7%	2.7%	4.78	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		161	35	263	1184	251	197	28	22%	1.6	21.2%	16.6%	4.5%	2.4%	4.32	4.71	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	27	200	902	191	150	21	22%	1.6	21.2%	16.6%	4.5%	2.4%	4.32	4.71	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	22.2%	15.3%	2.7%	—	4.72	22.9%	9.6%	110	-0.29	—	—	—
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	86
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	85
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	84
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	83
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	82
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	82
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	82
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	82
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	82
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	82
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	22.7%	13.6%	1.06	4.83
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41