Michael Arias
P
Somerset Patriots
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 160 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%23.0%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%9.6%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 16 | 0 | 23 | 100 | 22 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.0% | 17.5% | -2.5% | 1.4% | 3.09 | 4.80 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 16 | 0 | 23 | 100 | 22 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.0% | 14.0% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 3.09 | 4.13 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 17 | 82 | 23 | 22 | 2 | 100% | 1.7 | 20.1% | 32.8% | -12.7% | 5.0% | 4.76 | 8.28 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 17 | 82 | 23 | 22 | 2 | 100% | 1.7 | 28.0% | 26.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 4.76 | 5.81 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 81 | 352 | 110 | 51 | 3 | 100% | 3.7 | 23.5% | 16.9% | 6.6% | 0.9% | 4.09 | 3.75 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 81 | 352 | 110 | 51 | 3 | 100% | 3.7 | 31.2% | 14.5% | 16.8% | 0.9% | 4.09 | 2.76 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 60 | 286 | 72 | 46 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.5% | 17.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 4.77 | 4.65 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 60 | 286 | 72 | 46 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 16.1% | 9.1% | 1.7% | 4.77 | 4.08 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 3 | 30 | 133 | 36 | 17 | 2 | 13% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 17.2% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 2.73 | 4.51 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 3 | 30 | 133 | 36 | 17 | 2 | 13% | 1.3 | 27.1% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 1.5% | 2.73 | 3.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 27 | 0 | 32 | 144 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 5.40 | 5.54 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 0 | 23 | 98 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.0% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.72 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 55 | 242 | 61 | 29 | 9 | — | — | 25.4% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 5.11 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.0% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.15 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 205 | 93 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 147 | 35 | 243 | 1097 | 240 | 193 | 25 | 24% | 1.7 | 21.9% | 17.6% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 4.22 | 4.75 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 29 | 200 | 902 | 197 | 159 | 21 | 24% | 1.7 | 21.9% | 17.6% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 4.22 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 23.0% | 13.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.52 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 23 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 85 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 84 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 83 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 83 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 83 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 83 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 83 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 83 |
| Colin McKee R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.08 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.37 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.71 | 4.10 | 148 | 83 |
| Jay Driver R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 135 | 82 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 82 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 82 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 82 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 82 |
| Tyler Schimpf R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.97 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .300 | 5.60 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 58 | +1.63 | 3.35 | 126 | 82 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 82 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 82 |
| Eduardo Herrera R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.32 | 25.5% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .284 | 4.44 | 16.7% | -5.0% | 31 | +0.12 | 4.32 | 127 | 82 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 81 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 104 | 81 |