Connor Phillips

P Louisville Bats

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 209 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AAACIN	19	19	79	8.01	6.07	19.7%	15.3%	—	K 16.9% · BB 13.8% · FIP 5.64
2025	24	MIX3 levels	55	0	63	2.86	3.66	28.9%	13.7%	0.7	K 26.2% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.99
2026	25	MIX2 levels	58	0	67	5.21	4.30	25.2%	19.9%	0.2	K 23.0% · BB 18.9% · FIP 4.22
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	27	0	28	4.87	5.20	26.0%	18.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ88% MLB	27	MLBCIN	22	0	23	5.00	5.15	25.8%	17.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ90% MLB	28	MLBCIN	18	0	19	5.08	5.17	25.4%	17.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%35

xwOBA vs10

CompsSean Isaac (age 25) · Tyler Davis (age 25) · Fernando Baez (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA4.87

FIP5.20

K%26.0%

BB%18.5%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p4925.1%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.373

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	76	340	111	46	2	100%	4.5	23.9%	16.1%	7.8%	0.5%	4.62	3.38	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	76	340	111	46	2	100%	4.5	32.6%	13.5%	19.1%	0.6%	4.62	2.34	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	110	473	150	66	8	100%	4.6	24.9%	15.7%	9.2%	2.0%	3.78	4.09	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	110	473	150	66	8	100%	4.6	31.7%	14.0%	17.8%	1.7%	3.78	3.12	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	29	126	558	180	70	15	97%	4.2	27.4%	12.5%	14.9%	2.9%	4.37	3.97	+2.1
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	29	126	558	180	70	15	97%	4.2	32.3%	12.5%	19.7%	2.7%	4.37	3.46	+3.0
2024	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	19	79	391	77	60	16	100%	4.1	16.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.1%	8.01	5.64	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	19	79	391	77	60	16	100%	4.1	16.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.1%	8.01	5.64	—
2024	23	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	19	19	79	391	77	60	16	100%	4.1	19.7%	15.3%	4.3%	4.1%	8.01	6.07	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	63	256	74	35	6	0%	1.1	26.2%	12.9%	13.4%	2.7%	2.86	3.99	+0.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	63	256	74	35	6	0%	1.1	26.2%	12.9%	13.4%	2.7%	2.86	3.99	+0.4
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	55	0	63	256	74	35	6	0%	1.1	28.9%	13.7%	15.2%	2.3%	2.86	3.66	+0.7
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	67	317	80	63	4	0%	1.2	23.0%	18.9%	4.1%	1.2%	5.21	4.22	+0.3
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	67	317	80	63	4	0%	1.2	23.0%	18.9%	4.1%	1.2%	5.21	4.22	+0.3
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	67	317	80	63	4	0%	1.2	25.2%	19.9%	5.4%	1.3%	5.21	4.30	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	5	76	339	87	56	11	9%	1.4	25.7%	16.5%	9.1%	3.2%	5.00	4.91	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	27	0	28	118	31	22	3	0%	1.0	26.0%	18.5%	7.5%	2.9%	4.87	5.20	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	25	0	26	110	28	19	3	0%	1.0	25.8%	17.6%	8.1%	2.9%	5.00	5.15	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	20	0	21	89	23	15	3	0%	1.1	25.4%	17.2%	8.3%	3.0%	5.08	5.17	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	16	0	17	70	17	12	2	0%	1.0	24.8%	17.0%	7.8%	3.2%	5.19	5.29	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	12	0	12	52	12	9	2	0%	1.0	24.0%	17.1%	6.9%	3.4%	5.35	5.47	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	22	0	23	97	25	17	3	0%	1.0	25.8%	17.6%	8.1%	2.9%	5.00	5.15	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	18	0	19	80	20	14	2	0%	1.1	25.4%	17.2%	8.3%	3.0%	5.08	5.17	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	14	0	15	63	16	11	2	0%	1.1	24.8%	17.0%	7.8%	3.2%	5.19	5.29	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	11	46	11	8	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	17.1%	6.9%	3.4%	5.35	5.47	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		118	5	144	628	160	106	20	4%	1.2	25.4%	16.9%	8.6%	3.2%	5.06	4.83	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		164	7	200	872	222	147	28	4%	1.2	25.4%	16.9%	8.6%	3.2%	5.06	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		203	89	520	2335	558	345	54	44%	2.6	23.9%	14.8%	9.1%	2.3%	4.76	4.23	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	34	200	898	215	133	21	44%	2.6	23.9%	14.8%	9.1%	2.3%	4.76	4.23	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 37 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.42 (+0.15)K% 29.7% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.65%	—	×0.860	25.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.60%	—	×0.900	16.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.58%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.64%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 34 IPFIP 3.99 → 4.36 (+0.37)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.35%	—	×0.860	21.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.79%	—	×0.900	13.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.901	×1.100	2.58%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 79 IPFIP 5.63 → 5.64 (+0.02)K% 19.7% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.69%	—	×0.860	16.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.35%	—	×0.900	13.81%
HR / BF /BF	4.09%	÷1.111	×1.100	4.05%

Result: FIP 5.63 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 65 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.80 (+1.06)K% 39.1% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.08%	—	×0.810	31.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.51%	—	×1.100	10.46%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.017	×1.200	3.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 40 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.59 (+0.09)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.16%	—	×0.860	20.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.85%	—	×0.900	15.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.054	×1.100	0.59%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 64 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.90 (+1.11)K% 35.2% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.16%	—	×0.770	27.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.150	14.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.058	×1.250	2.31%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 46 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.31 (+0.80)K% 27.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.65%	—	×0.810	22.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.67%	—	×1.100	17.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷0.990	×1.200	1.67%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AModesto Nuts · 72 IPFIP 2.27 → 3.38 (+1.11)K% 32.3% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.30%	—	×0.740	23.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.66%	—	×1.180	16.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.31%	÷0.861	×1.300	0.47%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Phillips (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	26.0%	18.5%	2.9%	—	5.19	25.4%	8.1%	64	-0.01	—	—	—
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	69
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	66
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	66
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	65
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	64
Zak Kent R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	21.5%	14.0%	1.8%	.358	3.98	21.4%	11.7%	129	-0.06	3.13	385	64
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	64
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	63
Cody Morris R 2023 · 5.08 FIP	26	SU	5.08	23.9%	15.6%	3.7%	.203	3.90	23.3%	9.5%	38	-1.18	2.23	256	63
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	63
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	62
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	62
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	62
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.49	22.0%	0.2%	51	+0.40	4.09	130	61
Parker Bugg R 2021 · 5.29 FIP	26	SU	5.29	25.3%	16.0%	4.2%	.250	4.11	22.8%	10.8%	40	-1.18	3.20	277	61
Adrian Chaidez R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	24	SW	4.96	19.4%	16.3%	2.6%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	144	61
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	60
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	60
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	60
Ray Black R 2016 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	30.0%	24.6%	0.9%	.281	3.88	34.6%	23.4%	94	-0.27	2.95	150	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	23	25.5%	17.2%	1.20	5.02
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*