Connor Phillips — OGILVIE

Connor Phillips P Cincinnati Reds

+0.2 WAR

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 209 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

ERA4.88

FIP4.86

xFIP6.25

SIERA5.75

K%23.7%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%10.4%

IP72

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2026

STUF6060

CTRL2525

CMD5050

K†6565

FB Velo

p9098.1

Whiff%

p7829.7%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

SL+2.1 (51%)

CU (2%)

FB-1.1 (47%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	17	17	76	340	111	46	2	23.9%	16.1%	0.5%	4.62	3.39	+1.5
2022	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	24	24	110	473	150	66	8	24.9%	15.7%	2.0%	3.78	4.09	+1.5
2023	22	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	30	29	126	558	180	70	15	27.6%	13.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.03	+1.8
2024	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	19	19	79	391	77	60	16	17.3%	16.1%	4.0%	8.01	5.87	-0.7
2025	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	55	0	63	256	74	35	6	26.5%	14.2%	2.7%	2.86	4.13	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	10	0	11	51	12	11	1	23.5%	21.6%	2.0%	2.38	4.92	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB	CIN	11	11	60	255	70	39	8	27.3%	15.4%	3.3%	4.62	4.56	+0.3
2026 Total	25	MLB	CIN	—	—	72	306	82	50	9	26.7%	16.4%	3.1%	4.27	4.62	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	CIN	13	13	72	303	82	45	10	27.1%	14.8%	3.3%	4.89	4.86	+0.2
2028	27	MLB	CIN	13	13	71	301	81	43	10	26.8%	14.4%	3.3%	4.84	4.83	+0.2
2029	28	MLB	CIN	13	13	70	296	79	42	10	26.6%	14.1%	3.3%	4.82	4.83	+0.2
2030	29	MLB	CIN	12	12	69	290	75	41	10	26.1%	14.1%	3.3%	4.86	4.89	+0.1
2031	30	MLB	CIN	12	12	66	281	72	40	10	25.5%	14.2%	3.4%	4.93	4.98	+0.0
2032	31	MLB	CIN	12	12	64	271	68	39	9	24.9%	14.3%	3.5%	5.02	5.09	-0.1
2033	32	MLB	CIN	11	11	62	260	63	38	9	24.3%	14.5%	3.5%	5.13	5.20	-0.2
2034	33	MLB	CIN	59	—	59	248	59	36	9	23.6%	14.6%	3.6%	5.25	5.33	-0.3
2035	34	MLB	CIN	56	—	56	236	54	35	9	22.9%	14.8%	3.7%	5.38	5.47	-0.3
2036	35	MLB	CIN	53	—	53	223	49	34	9	22.2%	15.1%	3.8%	5.52	5.62	-0.4
2037	36	MLB	CIN	49	—	49	208	45	32	8	21.4%	15.3%	4.0%	5.68	5.78	-0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			155	89	464	2069	501	314	51	24.2%	15.2%	2.4%	4.63	4.32	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—			67	38	200	891	216	135	22	24.2%	15.2%	2.4%	4.63	4.32	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Phillips (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	28.2%	14.5%	3.4%	—	4.84	26.8%	12.4%	213	+0.01	—	—	—
Hunter Bigge R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	25	SW	4.09	23.4%	15.4%	1.8%	.316	4.18	32.2%	23.0%	52	+0.09	3.43	180	82
Manny Barreda R 2027 · 5.08 FIP	26	SU	5.08	21.2%	14.7%	3.5%	.286	3.67	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.41	3.25	376	79
Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	23.8%	14.8%	2.2%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.59	1.53	433	78
Calvin Faucher R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	25	SW	4.69	24.3%	13.7%	3.5%	.350	3.65	23.9%	13.7%	144	-1.04	2.08	381	77
Thyago Vieira R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	21.5%	12.5%	2.1%	.324	4.41	21.1%	10.3%	47	+0.42	3.04	311	77
Pat Light R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	25	SW	4.15	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.62	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.47	4.15	172	76
Nick Ernst R 2026 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	117	75
Nick Mears R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	25	SU	4.47	22.4%	16.8%	2.1%	.283	3.38	26.0%	16.0%	157	-1.09	3.06	254	75
Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.59 FIP	25	SW	4.59	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.54	16.5%	2.8%	182	-0.05	3.49	237	75
Tyler Bashlor R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	25	SW	4.72	21.3%	10.9%	3.7%	.222	4.52	21.9%	10.6%	97	-0.20	2.55	253	75
Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP	25	SW	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.65	197	75
Jordan Leasure R 2026 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	18.3%	12.7%	4.0%	.283	4.52	30.1%	19.3%	64	-0.85	4.45	193	74
Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	25	SW	4.45	21.5%	14.4%	2.5%	.326	4.74	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.29	3.86	242	74
Bryan Baker R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	24	SW	3.85	25.7%	15.8%	1.7%	.258	2.61	25.8%	16.4%	111	-1.24	2.58	500	74
Sean Reynolds R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	20.1%	17.4%	1.7%	.315	4.39	21.1%	5.7%	109	-0.17	3.76	258	74
Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	20.7%	14.0%	2.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	74
Yency Almonte R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	25	SW	4.58	18.8%	12.9%	2.6%	.301	3.57	24.2%	16.2%	129	-1.01	2.73	732	74
Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.51 FIP	24	SW	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.42	155	73
Josh Staumont R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	25.9%	15.1%	2.8%	.263	3.50	27.6%	14.9%	129	-0.87	3.11	618	73
Jairo Díaz R 2025 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	18.8%	13.6%	2.4%	.281	3.31	20.2%	10.3%	18	-1.23	2.97	190	73

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.