Connor Phillips — OGILVIE

Connor Phillips P Louisville Bats

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 209 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.45

FIP4.73

K%25.4%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

SL+2.1 (48%)

CU (3%)

FB-1.1 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	76	340	111	46	2	100%	4.5	23.9%	16.1%	7.8%	0.5%	4.62	3.38	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	76	340	111	46	2	100%	4.5	32.6%	13.5%	19.1%	0.6%	4.62	2.34	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	110	473	150	66	8	100%	4.6	24.9%	15.7%	9.2%	2.0%	3.78	4.09	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	110	473	150	66	8	100%	4.6	31.7%	14.0%	17.8%	1.7%	3.78	3.12	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	29	126	558	180	70	15	97%	4.2	27.2%	12.5%	14.7%	2.9%	4.37	3.99	+1.4
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	29	126	558	180	70	15	97%	4.2	27.2%	12.5%	14.7%	2.9%	4.37	3.99	+1.4
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	29	126	558	180	70	15	97%	4.2	32.3%	12.5%	19.7%	2.7%	4.37	3.46	+2.2
2024	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	19	79	391	77	60	16	100%	4.1	16.3%	13.8%	2.5%	4.1%	8.01	5.69	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	19	79	391	77	60	16	100%	4.1	16.3%	13.8%	2.5%	4.1%	8.01	5.69	—
2024	23	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	19	19	79	391	77	60	16	100%	4.1	19.7%	15.3%	4.3%	4.1%	8.01	6.07	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	63	256	74	35	6	0%	1.1	25.8%	12.9%	12.9%	2.7%	2.86	4.03	+0.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	63	256	74	35	6	0%	1.1	25.8%	12.9%	12.9%	2.7%	2.86	4.03	+0.4
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	55	0	63	256	74	35	6	0%	1.1	28.9%	13.7%	15.2%	2.3%	2.86	3.66	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			51	5	73	327	86	53	11	10%	1.4	26.3%	16.2%	10.1%	3.4%	5.03	4.87	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	54	0	62	293	78	57	4	0%	1.2	23.7%	18.5%	5.3%	1.3%	5.49	4.16	+0.3
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	54	0	62	293	78	57	4	0%	1.2	23.7%	18.5%	5.3%	1.3%	5.49	4.16	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	CIN	29	0	35	160	50	29	1	0%	1.2	31.2%	18.1%	13.1%	0.6%	5.45	3.10	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	CIN	25	0	28	133	28	28	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	21.1%	0.0%	2.3%	5.53	5.23	-0.2
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	CIN	25	0	28	133	28	28	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	21.1%	0.0%	2.3%	5.53	5.23	-0.2
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CIN	6	0	6	27	7	4	1	0%	1.1	25.4%	15.6%	9.8%	3.3%	4.45	4.73	-0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	CIN	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	25.4%	15.6%	9.8%	3.3%	4.45	4.73	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	69	320	85	61	5	—	—	26.5%	19.1%	7.4%	1.5%	5.39	4.21	+0.3
FULL	25	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	34	143	85	61	5	—	—	59.1%	42.6%	16.5%	3.4%	10.89	5.38	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	72	0	75	318	79	50	10	0%	1.0	24.9%	15.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.98	5.08	-0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	71	0	74	313	78	48	10	0%	1.0	24.8%	15.3%	9.5%	3.2%	5.01	5.06	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	69	0	72	304	75	46	10	0%	1.0	24.6%	15.1%	9.5%	3.3%	5.06	5.11	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	66	0	69	290	70	44	10	0%	1.0	24.0%	15.2%	8.8%	3.4%	5.17	5.25	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	62	0	65	273	64	42	10	0%	1.0	23.3%	15.5%	7.8%	3.6%	5.34	5.46	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	69	0	72	304	76	48	10	0%	1.0	24.9%	15.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.98	5.08	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	67	0	70	296	73	45	9	0%	1.0	24.8%	15.3%	9.5%	3.2%	5.01	5.06	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	65	0	68	287	71	43	9	0%	1.0	24.6%	15.1%	9.5%	3.3%	5.06	5.11	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	62	0	65	274	66	42	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	15.2%	8.8%	3.4%	5.17	5.25	-0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	58	0	61	258	60	40	9	0%	1.1	23.3%	15.5%	7.8%	3.6%	5.34	5.46	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		378	5	417	1778	439	276	59	1%	1.1	24.7%	15.5%	9.2%	3.3%	5.08	4.80	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	2	200	853	211	132	28	1%	1.1	24.7%	15.5%	9.2%	3.3%	5.08	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		199	89	515	2311	550	340	54	45%	2.6	23.8%	14.7%	9.1%	2.3%	4.79	4.24	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	35	200	897	214	132	21	45%	2.6	23.8%	14.7%	9.1%	2.3%	4.79	4.24	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Phillips (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	26.4%	14.7%	3.4%	—	5.08	24.7%	9.4%	222	+0.11	—	—	—
Calvin Faucher R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	25	SU	4.71	24.3%	13.7%	3.5%	.350	3.67	23.9%	13.7%	144	-1.04	2.08	443	73
Josh Staumont R 2019 · 4.36 FIP	25	SW	4.36	25.9%	15.1%	2.8%	.263	3.57	27.6%	14.9%	129	-0.79	3.18	618	72
Sam Bachman R 2023 · 4.60 FIP	23	SW	4.60	19.2%	16.4%	1.9%	.244	4.54	18.3%	7.1%	146	-0.06	3.25	248	71
Hunter Bigge R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	23.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.316	4.74	26.0%	14.8%	101	+0.72	3.44	229	71
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	71
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	70
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	70
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.88	23.4%	11.5%	93	-1.19	2.81	153	70
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	25	SW	5.30	21.4%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	69
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2023 · 5.71 FIP	25	SU	5.71	27.0%	21.6%	3.9%	.292	3.71	28.6%	17.5%	185	-2.00	3.08	344	69
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	68
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	68
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	68
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	68
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	68
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	68
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	68
Nick Mears R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	22.4%	16.8%	2.1%	.283	3.41	25.7%	16.1%	157	-1.05	3.19	273	67
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	67
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	71	24.7%	15.2%	1.29	5.04
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82