Connor Phillips
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 209 lbs
MLB
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.45
FIP4.78
K%25.7%
BB%17.2%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.3
Whiff%
p6026.8%
K%
p4321.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.377
SL+2.1 (48%)
CU (3%)
FB-1.1 (49%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 76 | 340 | 111 | 46 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.9% | 16.1% | 7.8% | 0.6% | 4.62 | 3.43 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 76 | 340 | 111 | 46 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 32.6% | 13.5% | 19.1% | 0.6% | 4.62 | 2.34 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 110 | 473 | 150 | 66 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.9% | 15.7% | 9.2% | 2.0% | 3.78 | 4.06 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 110 | 473 | 150 | 66 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 31.7% | 14.0% | 17.8% | 1.7% | 3.78 | 3.12 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 29 | 126 | 558 | 180 | 70 | 15 | 97% | 4.2 | 27.6% | 13.3% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.05 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 29 | 126 | 558 | 180 | 70 | 15 | 97% | 4.2 | 32.3% | 12.5% | 19.7% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 3.46 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 19 | 19 | 79 | 391 | 77 | 60 | 16 | 100% | 4.1 | 17.3% | 16.1% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 8.01 | 5.70 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 19 | 19 | 79 | 391 | 77 | 60 | 16 | 100% | 4.1 | 19.7% | 15.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 8.01 | 6.07 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 55 | 0 | 63 | 256 | 74 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 2.86 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 55 | 0 | 63 | 256 | 74 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 2.86 | 3.66 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 34 | 0 | 38 | 183 | 45 | 37 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 20.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 5.17 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 17.2% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 17.2% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 61 | 280 | 70 | 54 | 6 | — | — | 25.0% | 19.2% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 4.90 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 51 | 214 | 70 | 54 | 6 | — | — | 32.7% | 25.1% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 5.93 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 80 | 53 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 71 | 0 | 74 | 313 | 78 | 50 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 16.1% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 77 | 50 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 74 | 48 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 16.1% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 208 | 5 | 238 | 1023 | 261 | 168 | 33 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 16.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 4.78 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 175 | 4 | 200 | 859 | 219 | 141 | 28 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 16.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 179 | 89 | 491 | 2201 | 532 | 340 | 52 | 50% | 2.7 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 4.73 | 4.32 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 36 | 200 | 896 | 216 | 138 | 21 | 50% | 2.7 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 4.73 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Phillips (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 27.0% | 16.1% | 3.4% | — | 5.16 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 150 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 71 |
| Josh Staumont R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.34 | 25.9% | 15.1% | 2.8% | .263 | 3.55 | 27.6% | 14.9% | 129 | -0.79 | 3.17 | 618 | 70 |
| Calvin Faucher R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.82 | 24.3% | 13.7% | 3.7% | .350 | 3.67 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 144 | -1.15 | 2.08 | 420 | 70 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.12 | 26.5% | 19.8% | 3.2% | .403 | 4.00 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 93 | -1.12 | 2.72 | 153 | 69 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.50 | 22.7% | 16.4% | 4.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 181 | 69 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 69 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 68 |
| Hunter Bigge R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.4% | 15.4% | 1.8% | .316 | 4.44 | 27.8% | 16.5% | 86 | +0.39 | 3.39 | 213 | 67 |
| Jordan Brink R 2024 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 67 |
| Ray Black R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 35.1% | 25.7% | 2.1% | .324 | 3.43 | 34.9% | 19.6% | 80 | -1.11 | 2.96 | 150 | 66 |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 66 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 27.0% | 21.6% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.90 | 28.7% | 16.6% | 164 | -1.71 | 3.30 | 323 | 66 |
| Manny Barreda R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.91 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 3.2% | .286 | 3.68 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 186 | -1.23 | 3.19 | 376 | 66 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 66 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 21.2% | 18.6% | 1.9% | .329 | 4.35 | 25.0% | 5.4% | 107 | -0.34 | 4.20 | 311 | 66 |
| Richard Guasch R 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.44 | 22.3% | 16.2% | 2.1% | .287 | 3.21 | 23.8% | 11.8% | 72 | -1.23 | 2.94 | 293 | 65 |
| Christopher Troye R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.42 | 24.2% | 17.0% | 4.0% | .282 | 5.50 | 19.1% | -3.8% | 30 | +0.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 65 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 64 |
| Carter Loewen R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 23 | -0.07 | 2.67 | 145 | 64 |
| Marcos Tineo R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.91 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 3.4% | .320 | 6.95 | 7.8% | -24.1% | 10 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 273 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 67 | 25.6% | 16.3% | 1.24 | 4.99 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |