JJ Goss — OGILVIE

JJ Goss P Midland RockHounds

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%16.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

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K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	9	8	17	71	16	2	1	89%	1.9	15.3%	3.5%	11.8%	2.0%	5.82	3.33	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	9	8	17	71	16	2	1	89%	1.9	22.5%	2.8%	19.7%	1.4%	5.82	2.34	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	4	3	10	44	12	0	0	75%	2.6	27.3%	0.0%	27.3%	0.0%	6.10	0.80	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	4	3	10	44	12	0	0	75%	2.6	27.3%	0.0%	27.3%	0.0%	6.10	0.78	—
2022	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	25	101	406	101	21	7	100%	4.1	18.4%	6.1%	12.3%	2.4%	4.00	3.62	—
2022	21	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	25	25	101	406	101	21	7	100%	4.1	24.9%	5.2%	19.7%	1.7%	4.00	2.63	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	22	95	408	90	49	16	100%	4.3	17.0%	13.8%	3.2%	4.6%	5.21	5.94	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	22	95	408	90	49	16	100%	4.3	17.0%	13.8%	3.2%	4.6%	5.21	5.94	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	22	95	408	90	49	16	100%	4.3	22.1%	12.0%	10.0%	3.9%	5.21	4.94	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	0	23	98	28	10	0	0%	1.4	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	0.0%	2.35	2.73	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	0	23	98	28	10	0	0%	1.4	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	0.0%	2.35	2.73	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	0	23	98	28	10	0	0%	1.4	28.6%	10.2%	18.4%	0.0%	2.35	1.97	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	33	0	40	160	31	12	1	0%	1.2	15.7%	8.2%	7.4%	0.8%	3.38	3.27	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	33	0	40	160	31	12	1	0%	1.2	15.7%	8.2%	7.4%	0.8%	3.38	3.27	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	33	0	40	160	31	12	1	0%	1.2	19.4%	7.5%	11.9%	0.6%	3.38	2.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	33	2	52	231	36	25	5	6%	1.6	12.6%	11.9%	0.7%	2.6%	5.23	4.97	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	33	2	52	231	36	25	5	6%	1.6	12.6%	11.9%	0.7%	2.6%	5.23	4.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	OAK	33	2	52	231	36	25	5	6%	1.6	15.6%	10.8%	4.8%	2.2%	5.23	4.34	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	OAK	5	0	5	21	3	2	1	0%	1.0	16.1%	10.3%	5.8%	2.6%	4.87	4.87	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	57	252	39	27	6	—	—	15.6%	10.8%	4.9%	2.2%	5.19	4.96	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	OAK	57	0	60	251	43	25	7	0%	1.0	17.3%	10.2%	7.1%	2.7%	4.79	4.77	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	56	0	59	247	44	25	7	0%	1.0	17.7%	10.2%	7.6%	2.7%	4.77	4.78	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	OAK	25	0	26	110	19	11	3	0%	1.0	17.3%	10.2%	7.1%	2.7%	4.79	4.77	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	35	0	37	156	28	16	4	0%	1.1	17.7%	10.2%	7.6%	2.7%	4.77	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	47	27	7	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.2%	7.4%	2.7%	4.78	4.39	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	85	22	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.2%	7.4%	2.7%	4.78	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		143	60	338	1418	243	136	37	42%	2.4	17.1%	9.6%	7.5%	2.6%	4.50	4.30	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	35	200	838	143	80	22	42%	2.4	17.1%	9.6%	7.5%	2.6%	4.50	4.30	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JJ Goss (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	16.1%	10.3%	2.6%	—	4.77	17.5%	7.3%	118	-0.10	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	91
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	86
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	85
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	85
Corey Baker R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	4.97	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.20	3.06	267	84
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	84
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	83
Michael Flynn R 2022 · 3.89 FIP	25	SW	3.89	14.2%	8.4%	1.7%	.362	4.45	24.0%	13.5%	98	+0.56	3.89	168	83
Adam Leverett R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	24	SW	4.09	15.4%	10.8%	1.7%	.309	5.03	15.1%	7.4%	186	+0.94	3.41	401	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82
Dillon McNamara R 2017 · 5.01 FIP	25	SW	5.01	13.3%	11.1%	3.0%	.229	3.00	21.2%	12.3%	69	-2.01	1.73	244	82
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	82
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	81
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	81
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	81
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	81
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	81
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	81
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	17.0%	10.2%	1.04	4.81
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58