Hunter Barco

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 229 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	18	16	66	3.27	2.57	31.2%	8.3%	—	K 23.4% · BB 10.0% · FIP 3.61
2025	24	MIX3 levels	29	23	102	2.73	2.85	27.7%	11.4%	2.6	K 23.5% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.29
2026	25	MIX3 levels	29	15	98	4.52	4.04	21.1%	12.2%	1.0	K 18.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.17
2027PROJ	26	MLBPIT	20	20	122	4.50	4.56	20.5%	11.2%	0.5
2028PROJ64% MLB	27	MLBPIT	13	13	80	4.52	4.56	20.6%	10.9%	0.3
2029PROJ76% MLB	28	MLBPIT	16	16	95	4.57	4.62	20.6%	10.8%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo44

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsBrad Mills (age 26) · Dan Meyer (age 26) · Hung-Chih Kuo (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.50

FIP4.56

K%20.5%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4550

CMD4550

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p1016.3%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.381

SI (20%)

CH-0.5 (9%)

FB-0.8 (57%)

SL-2.3 (30%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	18	78	28	6	0	89%	2.0	35.9%	7.7%	28.2%	0.0%	3.44	1.04	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	18	78	28	6	0	89%	2.0	35.9%	7.7%	28.2%	0.0%	3.44	1.03	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	66	266	83	22	5	89%	3.7	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.2%	3.27	3.61	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	66	266	83	22	5	89%	3.7	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.2%	3.27	3.61	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	66	266	83	22	5	89%	3.7	31.2%	8.3%	22.9%	1.9%	3.27	2.57	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	23	102	429	119	49	5	79%	3.5	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	1.4%	2.73	3.29	+2.0
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	23	102	429	119	49	5	79%	3.5	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	1.4%	2.73	3.29	+2.0
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	23	102	429	119	49	5	79%	3.5	27.7%	11.4%	16.3%	1.2%	2.73	2.85	+2.6
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	15	98	451	95	55	9	52%	3.4	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	2.2%	4.52	4.17	+0.8
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	15	98	451	95	55	9	52%	3.4	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	2.2%	4.52	4.17	+0.8
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	15	98	451	95	55	9	52%	3.4	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	2.0%	4.52	4.04	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	21	99	17	13	4	0%	2.3	17.2%	13.1%	4.0%	4.0%	6.53	5.86	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PIT	20	20	122	515	105	58	13	100%	6.1	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	2.5%	4.50	4.56	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	124	526	108	58	14	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.9%	9.7%	2.6%	4.52	4.56	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	124	526	108	57	14	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.57	4.62	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	119	502	101	55	15	100%	5.9	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.77	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	112	472	92	53	15	100%	5.9	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	3.1%	4.84	4.96	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	80	338	70	37	9	100%	6.2	20.6%	10.9%	9.7%	2.6%	4.52	4.56	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	95	401	83	44	11	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.57	4.62	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	97	410	82	45	12	100%	6.1	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.77	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	96	405	79	45	13	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	3.1%	4.84	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	61	389	1653	330	183	48	87%	5.6	20.0%	11.1%	8.9%	2.9%	4.76	4.43	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	32	200	850	170	94	25	87%	5.5	20.0%	11.1%	8.9%	2.9%	4.76	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		85	62	284	1224	276	130	22	73%	3.3	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.51	3.54	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	44	200	861	194	92	16	73%	3.3	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.51	3.54	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Barco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	20.5%	11.2%	2.5%	—	4.65	20.4%	9.5%	368	+0.09	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	75
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	71
Hung-Chih Kuo L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	19.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.333	2.04	29.8%	22.7%	170	-1.87	1.63	287	71
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	70
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	69
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	68
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	68
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	67
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	67
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	67
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	66
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	65
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	65
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	65
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	64
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	64
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	64
Josh Outman L 2011 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	13.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.302	3.80	21.8%	11.8%	123	-0.23	2.95	380	64
Rodney Boone L 2024 · 4.56 FIP	24	SP-	4.56	18.1%	9.8%	3.2%	.221	3.64	18.5%	10.8%	78	-0.92	3.64	311	63
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	125	20.1%	11.1%	1.09	4.68
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
George Chalmers ('10-'16, 2 WAR*)	3.2	108	20.2%*	10.7%*	1.14*	4.59*
Tom Phoebus ('66-'72, 10 WAR*)	5.2	147	21.2%*	11.0%*	1.06*	4.25*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80