Rafael Morel

SS South Bend Cubs

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 170 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	A+CHC	328	.226/.317/.341	8	6	42	—	.179/.252/.274
2025	23	AAACHC	37	.121/.216/.152	0	1	-16	—	.118/.189/.147
2025	23	A+CHC	362	.172/.302/.245	3	23	18	—	.132/.229/.182
2027PROJ0% MLB	25	MLBCHC	2	.169/.251/.239	0	0	41	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	26	MLBCHC	107	.174/.256/.254	1	3	46	-0.3
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBCHC	158	.177/.258/.260	2	4	48	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 A+

BB%76

Chase%76

Speed74

ISO26

Whiff%25

Z-Con%25

CompsChris Givin (age 25) · Branden Fryman (age 25) · Lucas Dunn (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†41

AVG/OBP/SLG.169 / .251 / .239

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%8

BABIP255

ISO70

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	230	65	16	5	4	26	38	9	23	9	283	377	448	825	165	319	14	10	365	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	139	118	24	4	1	3	14	38	3	6	1	203	304	331	634	127	263	27	10	284	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	145	126	35	7	2	0	13	41	4	4	2	278	364	365	729	87	402	28	9	329	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	334	88	10	0	7	50	94	6	16	9	263	369	356	726	93	346	24	13	335	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	328	287	65	7	1	8	29	93	9	6	5	226	317	341	658	115	305	28	9	300	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	37	33	4	1	0	0	4	15	0	1	0	121	216	152	368	30	222	41	11	184	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	362	302	52	13	0	3	50	112	6	23	2	172	302	245	547	73	257	31	14	262	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	238	41	9	3	2	18	46	9	23	9	172	257	261	517	88	197	17	7	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	139	124	17	3	1	2	8	55	3	6	1	137	207	226	433	89	197	40	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	145	132	23	4	1	0	7	60	4	4	2	174	238	220	457	45	313	41	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	348	72	8	0	5	36	126	6	16	9	207	292	273	565	66	305	32	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	328	296	53	5	1	7	20	117	9	6	5	179	252	274	526	95	259	36	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	37	34	4	1	0	0	3	18	0	1	0	118	189	147	336	29	218	49	8	144	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	362	318	42	10	0	2	34	135	6	23	2	132	229	182	411	50	211	37	9	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	238	41	9	3	2	18	46	9	23	9	172	257	261	517	88	202	17	7	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	230	65	16	5	4	26	38	9	23	9	283	377	448	825	165	319	14	10	365	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	139	124	17	3	1	2	8	55	3	6	1	137	207	226	433	89	214	40	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	139	118	24	4	1	3	14	38	3	6	1	203	304	331	634	127	263	27	10	284	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	145	132	23	4	1	0	7	60	4	4	2	174	238	220	457	45	311	41	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	145	126	35	7	2	0	13	41	4	4	2	278	364	365	729	87	402	28	9	329	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	348	72	8	0	5	36	126	6	16	9	207	292	273	565	66	307	32	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	334	88	10	0	7	50	94	6	16	9	263	369	356	726	93	346	24	13	335	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	328	296	53	5	1	7	20	117	9	6	5	179	252	274	526	95	266	36	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	328	287	65	7	1	8	29	93	9	6	5	226	317	341	658	115	305	28	9	300	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	399	352	46	11	0	2	37	154	6	24	2	131	225	179	404	48	220	39	9	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	399	335	56	14	0	3	54	127	6	24	2	167	294	236	529	69	254	32	14	255	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	239	41	9	3	2	18	46	9	23	9	172	257	259	516	88	197	17	7	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	139	127	17	3	1	2	8	55	3	6	1	134	207	220	428	87	197	40	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	145	133	23	4	1	0	7	60	4	4	2	173	238	218	456	45	313	41	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	346	72	8	0	5	36	126	6	16	9	208	292	275	567	66	305	32	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	328	296	53	5	1	7	20	117	9	6	5	179	252	274	526	95	259	36	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	399	353	46	11	0	2	37	154	6	24	2	130	225	178	404	48	212	39	9	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	328	296	53	5	1	7	20	117	9	6	5	179	252	274	526	95	259	36	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	399	353	46	11	0	2	37	154	6	24	2	130	225	178	404	48	212	39	9	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	0%	380	340	57	11	1	4	32	128	5	11	2	167	250	237	487	70	252	34	8	228	41	-27	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	169	251	239	490	71	255	50	0	229	41	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	30%	353	315	55	11	1	4	30	117	5	10	2	173	255	253	508	80	255	33	8	236	46	-23	+1	+0	+4	+8	-1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	42%	380	340	60	12	1	5	32	124	5	10	2	175	257	258	515	83	256	33	8	239	48	-23	+1	+0	+4	+8	-1.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	30%	107	96	16	3	0	1	9	35	1	3	1	174	256	254	510	80	257	33	8	237	46	-7	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	42%	158	142	25	5	0	2	13	52	2	4	1	177	258	260	518	83	259	33	8	240	48	-10	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	265	238	41	8	0	3	22	87	3	7	2	172	251	244	495	71	253	33	8	239	40	-17	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	101	20	0	7	54	213	7	17	5	173	251	243	494	70	255	33	8	239	40	-41	+1	+0	+7	+14	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2723	2430	415	72	9	30	215	907	52	108	34	171	253	245	498	74	254	33	8	227	40	-69	+3	+0	+11	+23	-3.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	99	17	2	7	51	217	12	26	8	171	252	243	495	72	255	33	8	227	40	-42	+2	+0	+7	+14	-2.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Jerry Kindall'56-'65 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,261 PA	3.4	2,261	44	17	212*	265*	339*	+9	+21	-0.7	0.4
/162	664	13	5	+2.7	+6.3	-0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	267	3	7	175	254	257	+3	+3	-0.6	-0.3
/162	664	8	18	+7.1	+7.5	-1.4	pk7: 0
#3Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#4Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#5Billy Hunter'53-'58 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,052 PA	3.1	2,052	16	23	213*	254*	312*	+20	+13	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	5	7	+6.4	+4.3	-0.9	pk7: -3
#6Skeeter Webb'38-'48 * career totals — 11 seasons, 2,453 PA	3.7	2,453	3	33	210*	251*	293*	+18	+0	-7.6	-5.7
/162	664	1	9	+5.0	+0.0	-2.1	pk7: -4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Morel (OGILVIE)	25	20	25	60	55	166/248/235	69	252	3	9	34%	8%	41	-1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Givin 2022 · AA	25	38	38→30	50→45	43	187/248/261	74	257	6	6	29%	7%	45	-2.7	202/264/278	76	269	6	7	25%	7%	55	-1.9	194/260/252	58	250	4	5	23%	7%	45	-1.3
✕Branden Fryman 2023 · AAA	25	37	39→30	50	38	185/228/263	78	252	7	15	29%	5%	37	-3.3	204/242/303	99	290	8	11	31%	4%	52	-2.2	197/221/298	101	278	7	9	31%	3%	39	-1.0
✕Lucas Dunn 2024 · AAA	25	40→39	40	50	44	191/274/286	94	288	8	13	34%	9%	61	-1.5	191/261/280	89	295	8	11	35%	8%	55	-2.0	147/217/217	70	238	6	10	38%	7%	23	-1.8
✕Matt Whatley 2021 · A	25	39→37	38→40	52→50	46	189/263/263	75	259	5	15	28%	8%	52	-2.2	193/256/274	81	275	8	10	31%	7%	51	-2.2	172/233/253	81	229	10	8	29%	6%	36	-1.2
✕Nick Natoli 2013 · AA	25	42	37→30	52→50	51	197/281/273	76	266	4	10	26%	10%	61	-1.5	182/255/252	70	265	4	11	30%	8%	47	-2.6	145/223/193	48	218	1	11	31%	8%	19	-2.9
✕Casio Grider 2013 · A	25	40→39	38→40	56→55	37	192/248/279	87	281	4	18	32%	5%	49	-2.4	198/253/282	84	300	6	23	34%	5%	51	-2.2	188/244/265	77	288	5	30	34%	5%	41	-1.5
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	40	39→45	53→55	40	192/250/279	87	274	5	16	31%	6%	50	-2.3	189/266/297	108	285	10	16	35%	8%	61	-1.5	173/257/287	114	273	12	16	38%	8%	54	-1.2
✕Wyatt Hoffman 2024 · A	25	34	35→30	56→55	39	160/241/214	53	277	3	21	40%	8%	33	-3.6	165/246/228	63	297	4	16	42%	7%	38	-3.2	141/227/194	53	265	3	14	43%	7%	22	-1.7
✕Casey Martin 2024 · AA	25	31→32	42→40	52→50	36	167/217/264	97	246	10	16	36%	5%	34	-3.5	172/224/269	97	261	10	13	37%	5%	38	-3.2	121/175/199	78	179	10	12	38%	5%	3	-3.4
✕Ryan Lormand 2011 · AAA	25	43	36→40	53→55	39	206/248/278	72	282	3	16	27%	5%	48	-2.5	203/252/280	77	282	4	15	28%	6%	50	-2.3	153/204/188	34	219	0	19	28%	6%	8	-1.2
✕Jack Winkler 2024 · AA	25	43→41	39→40	50→55	44	208/271/297	89	274	7	14	26%	7%	61	-1.5	188/250/281	93	257	9	22	29%	6%	51	-2.3	172/236/263	91	235	10	24	30%	6%	39	-2.2
✕Simon Whiteman 2023 · AA	26	40→45	36→30	58→55	44	183/267/248	65	298	4	26	36%	9%	51	-2.3	199/268/277	78	288	6	19	30%	8%	57	-1.8	189/255/254	65	258	4	20	26%	8%	44	-1.1
✕Eric Yang 2023 · AAA	25	39	39→40	47→40	44	188/270/273	85	279	6	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	199/274/274	75	301	5	6	33%	8%	59	-1.7	179/263/233	55	281	4	1	35%	9%	43	-0.6
✕Trey Martin 2017 · AA	24	38→39	36→40	53→55	35	183/221/242	59	274	4	19	34%	4%	30	-3.8	197/239/284	87	301	7	14	35%	5%	47	-2.6	193/235/285	92	297	8	14	36%	4%	44	-1.7
✕Donta' Williams 2024 · AA	25	39→34	40	52→55	46	188/278/281	93	282	7	22	33%	9%	62	-1.4	189/266/267	78	286	5	16	33%	8%	54	-2.0	165/243/216	51	252	1	15	32%	8%	31	-1.1
✕Bubba Alleyne 2024 · A	25	35→29	41→40	54→55	38	177/232/272	95	256	8	20	33%	6%	41	-3.0	192/250/282	90	284	8	18	33%	6%	51	-2.3	189/252/277	88	283	8	21	34%	7%	47	-1.4
✕Wyatt Hendrie 2024 · A	25	38	40	51→50	39	184/253/275	91	288	8	9	37%	7%	51	-2.3	193/268/288	95	284	9	12	33%	8%	59	-1.6	167/254/245	78	237	10	16	32%	8%	44	-0.6
✕Jonathan Guzmán 2024 · AA	24	35→43	37→30	50	38	175/225/243	68	254	5	12	32%	6%	32	-3.7	197/252/274	77	294	6	9	33%	7%	49	-2.4	157/207/200	42	241	3	3	34%	6%	12	-1.4
✕Kevin Merrell 2022 · AAA	26	40→39	39→40	55	40	196/247/282	86	273	7	17	30%	6%	49	-2.4	224/278/352	128	274	16	11	24%	6%	78	-0.3	226/273/357	131	245	21	6	18%	6%	76	-0.1
✕Jacob Pearson 2023 · AA	25	38→39	40	50	44	189/254/282	93	253	8	19	28%	7%	53	-2.1	197/260/302	105	290	9	15	33%	7%	59	-1.6	131/193/248	117	214	11	13	43%	7%	18	-0.8

Rafael Morel

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps