Sandy Gaston

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 224 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+TB	10	11	9.00	5.74	18.0%	27.9%	—	K 13.9% · BB 32.0% · FIP 5.99
2025	23	MIX2 levels	40	71	4.84	3.64	28.2%	14.6%	—	K 22.6% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.17
2026	24	AAWSH	47	53	4.89	4.79	30.4%	16.6%	—	K 24.6% · BB 18.3% · FIP 5.74
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	67	70	5.55	5.55	23.8%	18.5%	-0.8
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBWSH	30	31	5.41	5.40	24.0%	17.5%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	42	44	5.35	5.36	23.9%	17.0%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control30Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsCaleb Simpson (age 25) · Fernando Baez (age 25) · Dennis Sarfate (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 122

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%23.8%

BB%18.5%

K-BB%5.3%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	11	6	27	129	31	27	1	55%	2.5	16.3%	26.2%	-9.8%	1.1%	6.00	5.63	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	11	6	27	129	31	27	1	55%	2.5	24.0%	20.9%	3.1%	0.8%	6.00	4.29	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	50	211	70	35	3	71%	3.6	23.6%	20.0%	3.6%	1.9%	3.60	4.68	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	50	211	70	35	3	71%	3.6	33.2%	16.6%	16.6%	1.4%	3.60	3.18	—
2022	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	31	4	55	255	77	56	3	13%	1.8	22.3%	25.9%	-3.6%	1.6%	4.61	5.39	—
2022	20	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	31	4	55	255	77	56	3	13%	1.8	30.2%	22.0%	8.2%	1.2%	4.61	4.07	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	7	47	230	53	48	7	18%	1.2	17.7%	24.0%	-6.3%	3.6%	7.09	6.60	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	7	47	230	53	48	7	18%	1.2	23.0%	20.9%	2.2%	3.0%	7.09	5.84	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	10	0	11	61	11	17	0	0%	1.1	13.9%	32.0%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	5.99	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	10	0	11	61	11	17	0	0%	1.1	13.9%	32.0%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	5.99	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	10	0	11	61	11	17	0	0%	1.1	18.0%	27.9%	-9.8%	0.0%	9.00	5.74	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	71	316	89	46	6	0%	1.8	22.6%	16.1%	6.5%	1.7%	4.84	4.17	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	71	316	89	46	6	0%	1.8	22.6%	16.1%	6.5%	1.7%	4.84	4.17	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	71	316	89	46	6	0%	1.8	28.2%	14.6%	13.6%	1.9%	4.84	3.64	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	47	0	53	247	75	41	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	18.3%	6.3%	4.4%	4.89	5.74	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	47	0	53	247	75	41	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	18.3%	6.3%	4.4%	4.89	5.74	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	47	0	53	247	75	41	9	0%	1.1	30.4%	16.6%	13.8%	3.6%	4.89	4.79	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	67	0	70	296	70	55	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	18.5%	5.3%	3.2%	5.55	5.55	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	67	0	70	296	71	52	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	17.5%	6.5%	3.2%	5.41	5.40	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	66	0	69	291	70	49	9	0%	1.0	23.9%	17.0%	7.0%	3.2%	5.35	5.36	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	64	0	67	282	67	47	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	16.7%	7.1%	3.3%	5.35	5.39	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	270	63	45	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	16.8%	6.8%	3.4%	5.43	5.50	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	30	0	31	131	31	23	4	0%	1.0	24.0%	17.5%	6.5%	3.2%	5.41	5.40	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	42	0	44	186	44	31	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	17.0%	7.0%	3.2%	5.35	5.36	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	49	0	51	215	51	36	7	0%	1.0	23.8%	16.7%	7.1%	3.3%	5.35	5.39	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	50	0	52	220	52	37	8	0%	1.0	23.5%	16.8%	6.8%	3.4%	5.43	5.50	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	178	127	25	0%	1.0	23.8%	16.9%	6.8%	3.3%	5.38	5.04	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	143	28	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.9%	6.8%	3.3%	5.38	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		191	27	314	1449	309	313	34	14%	1.6	21.4%	21.6%	-0.2%	2.3%	5.19	5.32	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	17	200	924	197	199	22	14%	1.6	21.4%	21.6%	-0.2%	2.3%	5.19	5.32	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sandy Gaston (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	23.8%	18.5%	3.2%	—	5.38	23.9%	6.8%	206	-0.17	—	—	—
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	88
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	87
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	86
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	84
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	84
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	83
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	82
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	82
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	82
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	81
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.87	23.6%	11.6%	93	-1.20	2.81	153	80
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	80
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	80
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	80
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	80
Connor Walsh R 2018 · 4.93 FIP	25	SU	4.93	22.3%	15.7%	3.1%	.387	4.09	19.4%	5.5%	62	-0.84	3.36	266	80
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	79
Antonio Knowles R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	20.9%	15.1%	2.4%	.250	3.28	20.9%	11.7%	66	-1.30	3.24	223	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	23.8%	17.3%	1.25	5.42
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*