Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Braves | 10 | 0 | 17 | 85 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.6% | 20.6% | -7.0% | 0.0% | 6.88 | 4.56 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Braves | 10 | 0 | 17 | 85 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.0% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 6.88 | 3.57 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Braves | 14 | 14 | 62 | 264 | 67 | 29 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 17.3% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 3.77 | 3.96 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Braves | 14 | 14 | 62 | 264 | 67 | 29 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 25.4% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 0.8% | 3.77 | 2.76 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 8 | 6 | 30 | 129 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 75% | 3.7 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 6.67 | 3.98 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 8 | 6 | 30 | 129 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 75% | 3.7 | 25.6% | 8.5% | 17.1% | 2.3% | 6.67 | 3.30 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 100 | 443 | 119 | 42 | 12 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 4.66 | 4.87 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 100 | 443 | 119 | 42 | 12 | 100% | 4.6 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 17.4% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 14 | 78 | 352 | 81 | 53 | 11 | 41% | 2.3 | 19.7% | 15.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.42 | 5.41 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 14 | 78 | 352 | 81 | 53 | 11 | 41% | 2.3 | 23.0% | 15.1% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 5.42 | 4.89 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 25 | 132 | 592 | 113 | 66 | 33 | 83% | 4.4 | 18.2% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.95 | 6.39 | -1.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 25 | 132 | 592 | 113 | 66 | 33 | 83% | 4.4 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.95 | 6.15 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 69 | 298 | 90 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.1% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 4.06 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 69 | 298 | 90 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 30.2% | 12.8% | 17.4% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 3.65 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 32 | 0 | 35 | 160 | 48 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 16.5% | 1.6% | 5.19 | 3.06 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 36 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 13.9% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 5.76 | 5.79 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 36 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 13.9% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 5.76 | 5.79 | -0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 96 | 418 | 107 | 56 | 17 | — | — | 25.5% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 4.0% | 5.55 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 65 | 275 | 107 | 56 | 17 | — | — | 38.8% | 20.4% | 18.5% | 6.0% | 8.17 | 5.71 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 61 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 62 | 38 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 14.1% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 5.90 | 5.92 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 60 | 37 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 13.9% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 5.85 | 5.89 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 57 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 56 | 35 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 5.89 | 5.97 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 36 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 14.1% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 5.90 | 5.92 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 57 | 35 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 13.9% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 5.85 | 5.89 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 53 | 33 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 5.89 | 5.97 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 256 | 17 | 335 | 1458 | 318 | 197 | 80 | 7% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 6.21 | 5.97 | -2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 10 | 200 | 870 | 190 | 118 | 48 | 7% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 6.21 | 5.97 | -1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 197 | 81 | 522 | 2323 | 476 | 295 | 85 | 41% | 2.6 | 20.5% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 4.98 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 31 | 200 | 890 | 182 | 113 | 32 | 41% | 2.6 | 20.5% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Roddery Muñoz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.79 | 22.8% | 13.9% | 4.5% | — | 5.93 | 22.7% | 8.7% | 186 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Michael Baird R 2026 · 6.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.56 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 7.3% | .328 | 6.05 | 20.9% | 13.5% | 68 | -0.51 | 2.90 | 132 | 74 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2025 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.50 | 22.7% | 16.4% | 4.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 181 | 70 |
| Shay Schanaman R 2026 · 6.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.44 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 6.2% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 127 | 69 |
| Tyler Ivey R 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.93 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 6.1% | .395 | 5.44 | 16.2% | 3.7% | 122 | -0.49 | 2.96 | 304 | 69 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 69 |
| Manny Barreda R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.91 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 3.2% | .286 | 3.68 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 186 | -1.23 | 3.19 | 376 | 69 |
| Frankie Scalzo Jr. R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.17 | 17.2% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 237 | 68 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.16 | 23.6% | 11.6% | 4.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 117 | 68 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 68 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 6.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.80 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 7.0% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 285 | 67 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 67 |
| Logan Taylor R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 67 |
| Woo-Suk Go R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.55 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 5.1% | .288 | 2.27 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 28 | -3.28 | 2.27 | 107 | 67 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 66 |
| Félix Paulino R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.41 | 19.8% | 10.7% | 4.8% | .284 | 4.07 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 68 | -1.34 | 3.33 | 394 | 66 |
| Hunter Stanley R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.45 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .365 | 5.75 | 16.5% | 4.8% | 21 | +0.30 | 3.73 | 184 | 66 |
| Zack Leban R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.14 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 4.5% | .272 | 4.91 | 20.4% | 0.0% | 38 | -0.23 | 3.82 | 123 | 66 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 66 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 23.4% | 13.3% | 4.5% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 197 | 66 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 22.7% | 14.0% | 1.80 | 5.85 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Caleb Smith ('22) | 4 | 104 | 25.1% | 11.0% | 1.67 | 4.47 |