Tyler Ivey
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA5.27
FIP5.27
xFIP5.55
SIERA5.23
K%18.2%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%6.6%
IP118
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL4040
CMD3535
K†4040
FB-0.6
CH-0.9
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | 24 | 18 | 112 | 455 | 135 | 29 | 5 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 2.97 | 2.94 | +3.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 14 | 11 | 52 | 205 | 68 | 20 | 5 | 26.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 1.38 | 3.70 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 6 | 5 | 18 | 81 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 21.2% | 15.6% | 4.4% | 5.09 | 5.71 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 5 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 5.6% | 10.38 | 5.66 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 27 | 25 | 122 | 554 | 102 | 66 | 18 | 16.2% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 5.83 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 22 | 118 | 499 | 85 | 66 | 17 | 17.0% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 5.58 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 83 | 62 | 16 | 17.3% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 5.49 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 110 | 463 | 80 | 58 | 16 | 17.4% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 5.47 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 76 | 56 | 16 | 17.3% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 5.49 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 100 | 420 | 72 | 53 | 15 | 17.1% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 5.56 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 66 | 51 | 15 | 16.7% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 5.67 | 5.75 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 60 | 49 | 14 | 16.2% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 5.80 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 62 | 319 | 1368 | 282 | 144 | 41 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.33 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 39 | 200 | 859 | 177 | 90 | 26 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Ivey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.58 | 17.0% | 13.3% | 3.4% | — | 5.53 | 17.3% | 4.6% | 328 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Felipe Paulino R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 85 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.05 | 4.33 | 221 | 83 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.86 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .328 | 4.86 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 80 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 79 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 75 |
| David Fletcher R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.65 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.65 | 100 | 75 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 73 |
| Scott McGregor R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 73 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.81 | 16.2% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .301 | 4.70 | 15.6% | 5.8% | 275 | -0.11 | 3.91 | 577 | 72 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.2% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.61 | 33.6% | 23.7% | 41 | -1.15 | 3.58 | 291 | 71 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .353 | 3.35 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.54 | 3.27 | 283 | 71 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 6.02 FIP | 28 | SP- | 6.02 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 223 | 70 |
| Deck McGuire R 2025 · 5.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.31 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 3.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 622 | 69 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.33 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% | .276 | 4.33 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -1.00 | 3.64 | 605 | 68 |
| Cody Mincey R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.59 | 13.9% | 8.4% | 4.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 68 |
| Manny Barreda R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.19 | 18.1% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.34 | 20.1% | 12.9% | 40 | -1.85 | 3.25 | 376 | 68 |
| Alex Caldera R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.57 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 120 | 67 |
| Colin Bates R 2023 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.57 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 111 | 67 |
| Caleb Clay R 2023 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.67 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 111 | 67 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.