Tyler Ivey — OGILVIE

Tyler Ivey P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.69

FIP5.69

K%14.3%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

FB-0.6

CH-0.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	1	1	2	8	3	2	0	100%	2.0	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	1	1	2	8	3	2	0	100%	2.0	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	112	455	135	29	5	75%	4.7	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	1.4%	2.97	2.93	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	112	455	135	29	5	75%	4.7	29.7%	6.4%	23.3%	1.1%	2.97	2.05	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	11	52	205	68	20	5	79%	3.7	26.9%	9.6%	17.3%	3.1%	1.38	3.72	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	11	52	205	68	20	5	79%	3.7	33.2%	9.8%	23.4%	2.4%	1.38	2.89	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	5	18	81	19	10	3	83%	2.9	21.2%	15.6%	5.6%	4.4%	5.09	5.67	-0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	5	18	81	19	10	3	83%	2.9	23.5%	12.3%	11.1%	3.7%	5.09	4.85	+0.0
2022	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	5	2	13	65	17	7	3	40%	2.6	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	5.5%	10.38	5.63	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	5	2	13	65	17	7	3	40%	2.6	26.2%	10.8%	15.4%	4.6%	10.38	5.10	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	27	25	122	554	102	66	18	93%	4.5	15.3%	10.7%	4.6%	3.7%	5.83	5.21	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	27	25	122	554	102	66	18	93%	4.5	15.3%	10.7%	4.6%	3.7%	5.83	5.21	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	27	25	122	554	102	66	18	93%	4.5	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	3.2%	5.83	4.97	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	1	5	20	3	1	1	100%	4.7	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	5.0%	7.71	5.24	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	HOU	1	1	7	30	4	4	1	100%	7.0	14.3%	12.4%	1.9%	3.4%	5.69	5.69	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	77	326	54	37	12	100%	5.9	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	3.6%	5.51	5.48	-0.5
2028	32	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	71	301	50	35	11	100%	6.0	16.7%	11.7%	5.0%	3.8%	5.54	5.62	-0.6
2027	31	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	28	118	20	14	4	100%	5.6	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	3.6%	5.51	5.48	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	39	165	28	19	6	100%	6.5	16.7%	11.7%	5.0%	3.8%	5.54	5.62	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	12	72	306	51	34	12	100%	6.0	16.6%	11.2%	5.4%	3.8%	5.67	5.18	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	141	94	33	100%	5.9	16.6%	11.2%	5.4%	3.8%	5.67	5.18	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		77	62	319	1368	277	135	41	81%	4.1	20.3%	9.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.21	4.26	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	859	174	84	25	81%	4.1	20.3%	9.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.21	4.26	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Ivey (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.69	14.3%	12.4%	3.4%	—	5.55	16.7%	5.1%	149	-0.14	—	—	—
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	80
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	77
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	76
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	75
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	74
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	72
Alfredo Aceves R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	32	SP	4.98	10.0%	6.2%	3.5%	.244	4.93	9.9%	2.0%	107	-0.05	4.78	160	71
Casey Coleman R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	16.8%	11.4%	3.1%	.343	4.99	17.5%	8.8%	107	+0.15	2.95	306	70
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	70
Josh Roenicke R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	32	SP	4.85	10.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.353	3.35	19.2%	11.5%	160	-1.50	3.27	283	69
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	69
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	69
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	68
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	68
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	68
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	68
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	66
Manny Barreda R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	30	SP	5.21	18.1%	9.5%	4.4%	.317	3.34	20.1%	12.9%	40	-1.87	3.30	376	65
Donn Roach R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	29	SP	5.06	12.2%	7.1%	3.8%	.387	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	455	65
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	77	15.8%	11.9%	1.38	5.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77