Tyler Ivey
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 82 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151141vR 132
ERA5.88
FIP5.88
K%15.2%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%1.1%
ROS IP83
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB-0.6
CH-0.9
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 112 | 455 | 135 | 29 | 5 | 75% | 4.7 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 15.1% | 1.5% | 2.97 | 2.96 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 112 | 455 | 135 | 29 | 5 | 75% | 4.7 | 29.7% | 6.4% | 23.3% | 1.1% | 2.97 | 2.05 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 11 | 52 | 205 | 68 | 20 | 5 | 79% | 3.7 | 26.9% | 9.6% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 1.38 | 3.62 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 11 | 52 | 205 | 68 | 20 | 5 | 79% | 3.7 | 33.2% | 9.8% | 23.4% | 2.4% | 1.38 | 2.89 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 5 | 18 | 81 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 83% | 2.9 | 21.2% | 15.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.09 | 5.85 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 5 | 18 | 81 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 83% | 2.9 | 23.5% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 5.09 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 5 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 40% | 2.6 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 6.1% | 10.38 | 5.93 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 5 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 40% | 2.6 | 26.2% | 10.8% | 15.4% | 4.6% | 10.38 | 5.10 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 27 | 25 | 122 | 554 | 102 | 66 | 18 | 93% | 4.5 | 16.2% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.83 | 5.44 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 27 | 25 | 122 | 554 | 102 | 66 | 18 | 93% | 4.5 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 5.83 | 4.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 53 | 49 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.2% | 14.1% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 5.88 | 5.88 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 77 | 326 | 57 | 42 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 13.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.67 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 53 | 39 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 13.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.69 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 21 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.5% | 13.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.67 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 29 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.5% | 13.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.69 | 5.77 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 12 | 72 | 306 | 53 | 38 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 12.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.81 | 5.33 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 845 | 146 | 105 | 33 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.3% | 12.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.81 | 5.33 | +0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 77 | 62 | 319 | 1368 | 282 | 144 | 42 | 81% | 4.1 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.21 | 4.38 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 39 | 200 | 859 | 177 | 91 | 26 | 81% | 4.1 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.21 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Ivey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.88 | 15.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | — | 5.70 | 17.5% | 4.4% | 149 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| David Fletcher R 2026 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 77 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 73 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2025 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 70 |
| Tyson Ross R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.42 | 14.1% | 15.0% | 2.9% | .303 | 4.43 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 185 | -0.99 | 2.82 | 449 | 70 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.91 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .343 | 4.99 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.08 | 2.86 | 306 | 69 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 69 |
| Kenny Serwa R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.75 | 14.9% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 182 | 68 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 67 |
| Nate Long R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 67 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2028 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 66 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2028 · 5.12 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.12 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .353 | 3.44 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.68 | 3.29 | 283 | 65 |
| Chris Heston R 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 65 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.28 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 4.4% | .299 | 5.20 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 194 | -0.08 | 2.90 | 806 | 65 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 65 |
| Derek Eitel R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 65 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 30 | SP- | 6.27 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 5.2% | .321 | 4.78 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 129 | -1.49 | 4.66 | 261 | 64 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 64 |
| Manny Barreda R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.15 | 18.1% | 9.5% | 4.3% | .317 | 3.33 | 20.1% | 12.9% | 40 | -1.82 | 3.19 | 376 | 64 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.71 | 16.2% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .301 | 4.84 | 15.6% | 5.8% | 275 | +0.13 | 3.91 | 577 | 64 |
| Cody Mincey R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.46 | 13.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 147 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 77 | 16.7% | 13.4% | 1.41 | 5.75 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |