Gabriel Cotto prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Gabriel Cotto P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 175 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 128

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%19.4%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	8	7	15	87	15	16	0	88%	1.9	11.7%	23.0%	-11.3%	0.0%	9.39	5.02	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	8	7	15	87	15	16	0	88%	1.9	17.2%	18.4%	-1.1%	0.0%	9.39	4.27	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	11	2	19	102	17	15	2	18%	1.8	11.3%	18.4%	-7.0%	2.7%	7.91	5.98	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	11	2	19	102	17	15	2	18%	1.8	16.7%	14.7%	2.0%	2.0%	7.91	5.01	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	7	46	204	56	30	4	58%	3.9	19.8%	17.8%	2.0%	2.6%	3.11	5.09	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	7	46	204	56	30	4	58%	3.9	27.5%	14.7%	12.7%	2.0%	3.11	3.75	—
2022	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	17	17	67	294	70	37	7	100%	3.9	17.6%	14.9%	2.8%	3.1%	4.57	5.19	—
2022	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	17	17	67	294	70	37	7	100%	3.9	23.8%	12.6%	11.2%	2.4%	4.57	4.03	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	88	386	71	45	8	82%	4.0	13.9%	13.5%	0.4%	2.9%	4.79	5.23	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	88	386	71	45	8	82%	4.0	13.9%	13.5%	0.4%	2.9%	4.79	5.23	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	88	386	71	45	8	82%	4.0	18.4%	11.7%	6.7%	2.1%	4.79	4.20	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.4%	11.7%	7.7%	3.0%	4.97	4.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	61	257	51	30	8	100%	6.1	19.8%	11.5%	8.3%	3.0%	4.93	4.94	-0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	59	250	50	29	8	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	3.1%	4.94	4.98	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	22	93	18	11	3	100%	5.5	19.8%	11.5%	8.3%	3.0%	4.93	4.94	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	35	148	29	17	5	100%	5.8	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	3.1%	4.94	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	57	241	48	28	7	100%	5.7	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	3.1%	4.94	4.58	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	98	24	100%	6.0	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	3.1%	4.94	4.58	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		70	51	236	1073	168	171	28	73%	3.4	15.6%	15.9%	-0.3%	2.6%	4.95	5.25	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	43	200	908	142	145	24	73%	3.4	15.6%	15.9%	-0.3%	2.6%	4.95	5.25	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Cotto (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	19.4%	11.7%	3.0%	—	4.96	19.8%	8.3%	120	-0.01	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	83
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	79
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	77
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	75
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	75
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	75
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	75
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	74
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	74
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	73
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	73
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	73
Hung-Chih Kuo L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	19.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.333	2.04	29.8%	22.7%	170	-1.87	1.63	287	72
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	72
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	72
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	72
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	19.7%	11.6%	1.18	4.95
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jose Paniagua ('03)	1.8	60	17.3%	11.8%	1.01	4.49
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43