Luke Mann — OGILVIE

Luke Mann3B Midland RockHounds

Age 26 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION362 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP278

ISO122

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	24	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	324	286	62	9	2	8	27	82	8	2	0	217	301	346	647	129	273	25	8	293	85	-6	+0	—	—	+7	0.2
2024	24	A	Stockton Ports	—	183	159	47	9	1	8	20	42	3	1	0	296	385	516	900	220	355	23	11	395	153	+12	+0	—	—	+4	1.6
2025	25	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	54	45	9	2	1	3	8	19	0	1	0	200	321	489	810	289	250	35	15	347	121	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	25	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	462	391	77	19	2	11	52	139	9	8	1	197	305	340	645	143	263	30	11	290	83	-10	+1	—	—	+10	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	324	294	49	7	1	7	20	114	8	2	0	167	239	269	508	102	231	35	6	223	37	-24	+0	—	—	+7	-1.7
2024	24	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	183	165	38	7	1	6	14	55	3	1	0	230	302	394	696	164	295	30	8	296	86	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	54	47	7	2	1	2	6	24	0	1	0	149	245	362	607	213	200	44	11	244	51	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	25	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	462	410	64	14	2	8	33	172	9	8	1	156	235	259	493	102	221	37	7	221	36	-35	+1	—	—	+10	-2.5
2024	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	459	85	13	2	13	34	169	11	3	0	185	258	307	565	122	257	33	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	507	445	109	18	3	16	47	124	11	3	0	245	331	407	738	162	302	24	9	330	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	516	457	70	16	2	10	39	196	9	9	1	153	234	263	496	109	229	38	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	516	436	86	21	3	14	60	158	9	9	1	197	307	356	662	158	262	31	12	296	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	457	85	13	2	13	34	169	11	3	0	186	258	309	566	123	254	33	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	516	463	70	16	2	10	39	196	9	9	1	151	234	259	493	108	219	38	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	457	85	13	2	13	34	169	11	3	0	186	258	309	566	123	254	33	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	516	463	70	16	2	10	39	196	9	9	1	151	234	259	493	108	219	38	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	OAK	—	362	337	68	11	0	14	21	137	2	2	0	202	253	359	612	157	287	38	6	267	67	-14	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA RAW	OAK	—	281	252	58	10	0	14	25	93	1	2	0	230	301	437	738	206	299	33	9	324	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AAA RAW	OAK	—	81	72	22	3	0	5	8	18	1	0	0	306	383	556	938	250	347	22	10	410	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	26	AA MLE	OAK	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		272	33	11	258	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	26	AA MLE	OAK	—	371	345	69	11	0	14	22	140	2	2	0	200	252	354	606	154	285	38	6	267	67	-15	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	OAK	27%	336	307	60	11	1	10	23	119	3	3	0	195	258	336	594	140	274	35	7	265	65	-14	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	40%	364	331	66	12	1	11	26	125	4	3	0	199	266	341	607	142	275	34	7	268	68	-14	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	OAK	45%	373	339	67	12	1	11	27	127	4	3	0	198	265	336	601	139	275	34	7	269	68	-14	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.6
2027	27	MLB CTX	OAK	27%	90	83	16	3	0	3	6	32	1	1	0	193	256	337	593	145	280	36	7	260	65	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	40%	145	133	26	5	0	4	10	50	1	1	0	195	257	323	580	128	281	34	7	263	68	-6	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	OAK	45%	167	151	31	6	0	5	12	57	2	1	0	205	273	344	617	139	280	34	7	264	68	-6	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	402	367	73	14	0	12	28	139	4	3	0	199	263	335	598	136	280	35	7	263	57	-16	+1	-1	+1	+9	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	118	23	0	19	45	225	6	5	0	199	262	334	596	135	281	35	7	263	57	-25	+1	-1	+2	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2105	1901	349	64	7	55	150	739	31	21	1	184	255	311	566	128	261	35	7	252	57	-42	+2	-2	+4	+23	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	108	20	2	17	46	228	10	6	0	184	255	312	567	128	261	35	7	252	57	-25	+1	-1	+2	+14	-0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.6	407	12	3	198	260	337	+1	+0	-0.3	-0.2
/162	664	20	5	+2.4	+0.8	-0.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Mann (OGILVIE)	26	30	45	45	50	188/248/323	135	272	7	2	37%	6%	61	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ben Rortvedt 2023 · MLB	25	38	46→45	46→40	39	196/258/318	122	283	14	4	35%	7%	63	-1.4	207/287/317	110	285	12	5	29%	9%	74	-0.6	195/283/285	90	265	9	2	28%	9%	64	-0.6
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA	26	34→28	49→50	43→40	42	187/252/323	136	248	18	5	32%	7%	62	-1.4	195/274/335	140	245	18	5	28%	8%	73	-0.6	196/273/324	129	231	14	4	22%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Tristan Gray 2022 · AAA	26	41→35	46→50	42→40	42	209/270/342	132	281	14	5	30%	7%	72	-0.7	186/239/339	153	263	20	4	37%	5%	61	-1.5	198/254/329	130	265	15	3	30%	6%	62	-0.9
✕Patrick Dorrian 2022 · AAA	26	40→38	47→50	47→45	42	202/270/337	135	297	15	6	36%	8%	71	-0.8	191/257/327	136	288	16	6	37%	8%	64	-1.3	171/238/297	126	254	16	5	38%	7%	47	-1.5
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→38	43→50	47→55	38	183/247/294	111	267	11	13	34%	6%	53	-2.1	200/261/334	134	292	15	19	35%	6%	68	-1.0	196/258/325	129	284	15	24	35%	6%	61	-1.1
✕Shane Matheny 2022 · AA	26	39→41	43→45	47→50	41	191/258/297	106	298	10	6	38%	8%	57	-1.8	201/284/322	121	316	13	9	37%	10%	74	-0.6	190/280/310	120	295	13	9	37%	10%	67	-0.7
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→30	40→45	48→60	36	177/241/266	89	277	7	11	37%	6%	45	-2.7	186/269/301	115	281	11	21	35%	9%	63	-1.4	179/271/301	122	264	12	28	34%	10%	62	-0.8
✕Jake Lowery 2016 · AA	26	36	43→45	47→30	44	183/249/294	111	257	10	4	32%	8%	53	-2.1	187/258/290	103	288	9	5	35%	8%	56	-1.9	127/205/187	61	257	4	0	48%	9%	12	-1.1
✕Jason Cooper 2007 · AAA	26	39→38	48→50	45	40	202/260/343	141	277	15	6	32%	6%	69	-0.9	210/278/348	138	272	11	8	26%	7%	76	-0.4	212/286/360	148	264	11	7	23%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→36	46→50	48→50	39	184/244/306	122	245	15	10	31%	6%	55	-2.0	208/254/339	131	279	15	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	211/259/339	128	274	14	10	28%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Eric Jagielo 2018 · AAA	26	39→36	40→45	42→30	42	190/260/275	85	269	8	2	31%	7%	53	-2.1	188/244/292	104	275	10	4	34%	6%	51	-2.3	162/209/266	104	239	11	1	36%	5%	30	-2.8
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA	26	40	42→40	48→50	45	194/288/297	103	292	10	10	34%	9%	70	-0.8	194/284/310	116	283	12	11	33%	10%	71	-0.8	127/239/235	107	174	13	9	33%	12%	38	-1.1
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	34→30	46→50	50	44	180/256/309	130	256	14	12	34%	9%	60	-1.6	194/270/319	125	275	14	12	33%	8%	68	-1.0	163/251/289	126	221	17	12	33%	9%	52	-1.1
✕Aaron Shackelford 2023 · AAA	26	33→32	52→50	50→45	36	186/240/345	159	267	20	8	38%	6%	62	-1.4	190/257/326	136	286	16	10	37%	7%	64	-1.3	165/254/280	115	247	12	10	36%	9%	51	-1.6
✕McCarthy Tatum 2022 · AA	26	34→25	41→50	45→50	35	172/236/266	94	276	10	6	40%	6%	42	-2.9	201/258/317	116	289	11	10	33%	5%	62	-1.4	201/254/329	128	278	11	11	31%	4%	60	-0.5
✕Andy Yerzy 2023 · AA	25	35	49→50	49→40	45	189/272/334	145	258	18	5	33%	9%	72	-0.7	198/270/321	123	274	14	7	31%	8%	68	-1.0	141/208/218	76	221	10	2	39%	7%	18	-1.3
✕Craig Dedelow 2022 · AA	27	36→35	47→50	45	36	187/242/323	136	282	16	5	39%	6%	57	-1.8	188/262/333	145	330	17	11	45%	8%	68	-1.0	160/246/309	148	290	19	14	48%	9%	55	-1.8
✕Cael Brockmeyer 2018 · AAA	26	37→39	44→45	47→40	38	189/244/301	112	262	12	4	32%	5%	53	-2.1	218/276/314	96	318	9	8	32%	5%	68	-1.0	250/309/327	77	377	6	5	33%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	42→45	45→50	39	185/255/296	111	276	9	10	35%	7%	57	-1.8	191/270/296	105	294	8	13	35%	8%	62	-1.4	163/254/261	99	255	6	16	35%	9%	49	-1.1
✕Neil Medchill 2013 · AA	26	39→28	48→50	47→45	35	194/250/331	137	315	16	6	42%	7%	62	-1.4	213/267/322	109	343	11	8	38%	6%	65	-1.2	205/261/285	80	333	9	5	39%	6%	53	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps