Luke Mann

3B Midland RockHounds
Age 27 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424A+/AOAK507.245/.331/.40716353—.189/.258/.306
202525AAA/AAOAK516.197/.307/.35614937—.153/.234/.265
202626AAA/AAOAK376.245/.321/.45419265—.196/.251/.339
2027PROJMLE27MLBOAK3.193/.257/.3280061-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB28MLBOAK60.194/.259/.3282061-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Chase%83
Max EV79
BB%50
K%48
Whiff%35
Z-Con%31
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsPatrick Dorrian (age 27) · Tristan Gray (age 27) · Craig Dedelow (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†61
AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .257 / .328
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%7
BABIP273
ISO121
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.2-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT30
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202424 A+Lansing Lugnuts — 324286 62928 27828 20 217301346647 129273 258 293 39 — — — — — —
202424 AStockton Ports — 183159 47918 20423 10 296385516900 220355 2311 395 78 — — — — — —
202525 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 5445 9213 8190 10 200321489810 289250 3515 347 63 — — — — — —
202525 AAMidland RockHounds — 462391 7719211 521399 81 197305340645 143263 3011 290 34 — — — — — —
202626 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 9583 24305 11221 00 289379506885 217339 2312 391 99 — — — — — —
202626 AAMidland RockHounds — 281252 5810014 25931 20 230301437738 206299 339 324 53 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202424 A+ MLELansing Lugnuts — 324295 50717 191078 20 169239271510 102230 336 226 39 — — — — — —
202424 A MLEStockton Ports — 183166 37715 13563 10 223291367659 145291 317 283 78 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 5447 8212 6220 10 170264383647 213218 4111 261 63 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 462410 621328 331729 81 151230251481 100216 377 219 34 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 9586 21303 8261 00 244316384700 140320 278 315 99 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 281262 478010 161141 20 179229324554 145262 416 247 53 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLE2 teams — 507460 8513212 3316311 30 185256300556 115253 327 247 53 — — — — — —
202424 A+ RAW2 teams — 507445 10918316 4712411 30 245331407738 162302 249 330 53 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLE2 teams — 516457 7015310 391949 91 153234265498 112227 388 223 37 — — — — — —
202525 AA RAW2 teams — 516436 8621314 601589 91 197307356662 158262 3112 296 37 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLE2 teams — 376348 6910014 241402 20 198254348602 149281 376 264 65 — — — — — —
202626 AA RAW2 teams — 376335 8213019 361152 20 245321454775 209310 3110 341 65 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLE2 teams — 507458 8513212 3316311 30 186256301557 116252 327 247 53 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLE2 teams — 516463 7015310 391949 91 151234261495 110216 388 223 37 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLE2 teams — 376347 6910014 241402 20 199254349603 150277 376 264 65 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 A+ MLE2 teams — 507458 8513212 3316311 30 186256301557 116252 327 247 53 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLE2 teams — 516463 7015310 391949 91 151234261495 110216 388 223 37 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLE2 teams — 376347 6910014 241402 20 199254349603 150277 376 264 65 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLEOAK 2% 380347 6512111 261334 41 188253321574 133264 357 258 61 -18 +0 +0 +1 +8 -0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXOAK 2% 33 0000 010 00 193257328585 135273 330 263 61 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLEOAK 27% 222202 38716 16772 20 189254321575 132265 357 259 61 -10 +0 -1 +1 +5 -0.5
202828 MLB CTXOAK 27% 6055 11202 4211 00 194259328586 134274 357 263 61 -3 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 6055 11202 4211 00 200267345612 145281 357 263 53 -3 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650596 12022022 4322811 00 201268349617 148283 357 263 53 -30 +0 -2 +2 +14 -1.6
Career— MLE — 17761608 28850646 12362826 181 179249303552 124254 357 246 53 -17 +1 -1 +1 +8 -0.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650589 10518217 4523010 70 178249302551 124252 357 246 53 -30 +1 -1 +2 +14 -1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 281 PAwOBA .314 → .247 (−67)K% 33.1% → 40.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.10%÷1.000×1.220——40.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.19%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9885.66%
HBP% /PA0.36%—×0.870—×0.9880.31%
Singles /BIP21.38%÷1.000×0.920×1.004×0.98819.51%
Doubles /BIP6.29%÷1.000×0.840×1.004×0.9885.24%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.940×1.004×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP8.81%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9886.96%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .314 → .247; ISO .206 → .156; BABIP .299 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 95 PAwOBA .380 → .315 (−66)K% 23.2% → 27.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.16%÷1.000×1.200——27.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.58%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0188.13%
HBP% /PA1.05%—×0.940—×1.0181.01%
Singles /BIP26.23%÷1.000×0.930×1.041×1.01825.84%
Doubles /BIP4.92%÷1.000×0.830×1.041×1.0184.32%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.041×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP8.20%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0185.84%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .380 → .315; ISO .217 → .158; BABIP .339 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 462 PAwOBA .289 → .219 (−69)K% 30.1% → 37.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.09%÷0.988×1.220——37.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.04%÷1.078×0.700—×0.9987.15%
HBP% /PA1.95%—×0.870—×0.9981.69%
Singles /BIP17.86%÷1.012×0.920×0.967×0.99815.66%
Doubles /BIP7.54%÷1.131×0.840×0.967×0.9985.41%
Triples /BIP0.79%÷1.150×0.940×0.967×0.9980.63%
Home runs /BIP4.37%÷1.043×0.800—×0.9983.34%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 102, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .289 → .219; ISO .143 → .106; BABIP .263 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 54 PAwOBA .344 → .261 (−83)K% 35.2% → 41.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.19%÷1.027×1.200——41.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.81%÷0.970×0.690—×1.03310.88%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP11.54%÷1.052×0.930—×1.03310.53%
Doubles /BIP7.69%÷0.988×0.830—×1.0336.67%
Triples /BIP3.85%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0333.85%
Home runs /BIP11.54%÷1.183×0.700—×1.0337.05%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .344 → .261; ISO .289 → .205; BABIP .250 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 324 PAwOBA .288 → .226 (−62)K% 25.3% → 33.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.31%÷0.974×1.270——32.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.33%÷0.974×0.710—×0.9886.00%
HBP% /PA2.47%—×0.790—×0.9881.93%
Singles /BIP21.08%÷1.036×0.920×0.983×0.98818.18%
Doubles /BIP4.41%÷0.992×0.810×0.983×0.9883.50%
Triples /BIP0.98%÷1.150×0.850×0.983×0.9880.70%
Home runs /BIP3.92%÷0.867×0.800—×0.9883.58%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .288 → .226; ISO .129 → .105; BABIP .273 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AStockton Ports · 183 PAwOBA .386 → .283 (−103)K% 23.0% → 30.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.95%÷1.015×1.360——30.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.93%÷1.021×0.690—×0.9807.24%
HBP% /PA1.64%—×0.780—×0.9801.25%
Singles /BIP24.79%÷1.004×0.920×0.950×0.98021.15%
Doubles /BIP7.69%÷0.979×0.830×0.950×0.9806.07%
Triples /BIP0.85%÷0.900×0.910×0.950×0.9800.80%
Home runs /BIP6.84%÷1.164×0.800—×0.9804.61%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 101, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .386 → .283; ISO .220 → .150; BABIP .355 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).