Jared Poland
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 80 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%22.6%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP80
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 4 | 13 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 80% | 2.5 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 1.42 | 3.60 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 4 | 13 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 80% | 2.5 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 1.42 | 3.57 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 114 | 484 | 109 | 35 | 20 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.49 | 7.12 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 114 | 484 | 109 | 35 | 20 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.5% | 7.2% | 15.3% | 4.1% | 4.49 | 4.39 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 6 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 17% | 1.1 | 10.0% | 16.7% | -6.7% | 3.3% | 5.40 | 6.20 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 6 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 17% | 1.1 | 10.0% | 16.7% | -6.7% | 3.3% | 5.40 | 6.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 76 | 31 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 79 | 333 | 81 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.29 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 78 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 8.4% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 30 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 3.3% | 4.33 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 46 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.3% | 8.4% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 76 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 3.3% | 4.33 | 3.91 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 206 | 70 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 3.3% | 4.33 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 27 | 134 | 565 | 97 | 50 | 41 | 82% | 4.1 | 17.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.24 | 6.75 | -2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 40 | 200 | 845 | 146 | 75 | 61 | 82% | 4.1 | 17.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.24 | 6.75 | -3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Poland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 3.3% | — | 4.33 | 24.4% | 16.1% | 155 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 80 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 80 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 80 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 78 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 77 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 77 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 76 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 76 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 75 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 75 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 75 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 75 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 75 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 75 |
| Kutter Crawford R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.08 | 24.1% | 17.4% | 313 | -0.39 | 3.35 | 741 | 74 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 74 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.15 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 3.5% | .306 | 4.38 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 292 | +0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 74 |
| Spencer Howard R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.80 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 4.4% | .314 | 4.99 | 26.2% | 16.5% | 112 | +0.19 | 2.29 | 484 | 74 |
| Griffin Canning R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 74 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 78 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 1.30 | 4.44 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Félix Peña ('20) | 4 | 62 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.46 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |