Jared Poland — OGILVIE

Jared Poland P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%20.4%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	13	51	11	5	1	80%	2.5	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	2.0%	1.42	3.60	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	4	13	51	11	5	1	80%	2.5	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	2.0%	1.42	3.57	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	114	484	109	35	20	100%	5.2	17.2%	8.3%	8.9%	6.3%	4.49	6.16	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	114	484	109	35	20	100%	5.2	17.2%	8.3%	8.9%	6.3%	4.49	6.16	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	114	484	109	35	20	100%	5.2	22.5%	7.2%	15.3%	4.1%	4.49	4.39	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	6	1	7	30	3	5	1	17%	1.1	10.0%	16.7%	-6.7%	3.3%	5.40	6.20	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	6	1	7	30	3	5	1	17%	1.1	10.0%	16.7%	-6.7%	3.3%	5.40	6.20	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	6	1	7	30	3	5	1	17%	1.1	10.0%	16.7%	-6.7%	3.3%	5.40	6.40	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	MIA	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.7%	11.7%	3.2%	4.62	4.62	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	79	333	75	26	11	100%	6.1	22.5%	7.8%	14.7%	3.2%	4.44	4.35	+0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	76	323	72	26	11	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.1%	14.4%	3.3%	4.44	4.43	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	73	308	69	26	11	100%	6.1	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	3.5%	4.51	4.56	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	69	290	64	25	11	100%	6.2	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	3.6%	4.64	4.73	+0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	64	270	58	24	10	100%	5.8	21.6%	9.0%	12.5%	3.9%	4.81	4.93	-0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	29	122	28	10	4	100%	5.8	22.5%	7.8%	14.7%	3.1%	4.35	4.26	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	45	190	43	15	6	100%	5.6	22.5%	8.1%	14.4%	3.2%	4.35	4.34	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	51	215	48	18	7	100%	6.4	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	3.3%	4.42	4.47	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	54	228	50	20	8	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	3.5%	4.54	4.63	+0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	53	224	48	20	8	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.0%	12.5%	3.7%	4.70	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	232	980	217	83	33	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.4%	4.49	4.16	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	187	71	28	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.4%	4.49	4.16	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		33	27	134	565	97	50	32	82%	4.1	17.2%	8.9%	8.3%	5.7%	4.24	5.93	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	40	200	845	146	75	49	82%	4.1	17.2%	8.9%	8.3%	5.7%	4.24	5.93	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Poland (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	20.4%	8.7%	3.2%	—	4.44	22.4%	14.3%	228	-0.18	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	84
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	81
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	79
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	79
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	78
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	78
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	78
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	78
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	78
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	78
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	78
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	77
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	77
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	73	21.9%	8.4%	1.33	4.57
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59