Heston Kjerstad — OGILVIE

Heston KjerstadLF Norfolk Tides

Age 27 L/R 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 1.238 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION333 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 5985vR 95

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .250 / .250

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%6

BABIP309

ISO156

MLB%45%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

2214.2%

xAVG

170.224

POWER45

Barrel%

417.0

Avg EV

5289.3

Bat Spd

3269.4

EYE35

Chase%

1438.8%

SPEED55

Sprint

5527.7

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 265 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

242

—

wRC+

-20

▶▶R

wOBA

139

292

▶▶R

ISO

—

156

—

BABIP

167

270

▶▶R

39.1%

26.9%

▶▶R

BB%

4.3%

5.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.238 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$-2M	-$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	23	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	186	163	38	8	2	3	16	47	4	1	0	233	317	362	679	129	302	25	9	304	92	-2	+0	—	—	+4	0.2
2022	23	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	98	80	37	9	0	2	13	17	4	0	0	463	557	650	1.207	188	565	17	13	523	240	+16	+0	—	—	+2	1.9
2022	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	104	98	35	9	1	5	5	31	0	0	0	357	388	622	1.011	265	476	30	5	434	180	+10	+0	—	—	+2	1.2
2023	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	33	30	7	1	0	2	2	10	0	0	0	233	273	467	739	233	278	30	6	317	101	+0	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.5
2023	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	337	295	88	19	5	10	27	69	9	2	1	298	371	498	870	200	356	20	8	379	142	+17	+0	—	—	+7	2.5
2023	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	206	184	57	10	3	11	15	31	7	3	3	310	383	576	960	266	324	15	7	418	169	+17	-1	—	—	+4	2.1
2024	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	114	99	25	2	0	4	10	33	5	1	0	253	351	394	745	141	339	29	9	340	116	+2	+0	-1	-4	+2	0.0
2024	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	258	213	64	14	1	16	32	67	6	2	0	300	405	601	1.006	300	353	26	12	424	173	+23	+0	—	—	+6	2.9
2024	25	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	16	13	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	308	438	385	822	77	333	6	12	383	145	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2025	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	167	156	30	5	2	4	6	45	4	1	0	192	241	327	568	135	241	27	4	253	58	-8	+0	-7	-3	+4	-1.5
2025	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	112	101	15	2	1	2	10	30	0	0	1	149	223	248	471	99	188	27	9	218	33	-9	-0	—	—	+2	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	314	285	62	8	2	10	18	88	9	2	0	218	284	365	649	147	277	28	6	291	83	-6	+0	-8	-13	+7	-2.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	23	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	186	168	33	7	2	2	11	64	4	1	0	196	262	298	560	101	280	34	6	245	52	-11	+0	—	—	+4	-0.7
2022	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	98	85	36	8	0	2	8	23	4	0	0	424	495	588	1.083	165	533	23	8	455	194	+11	+0	—	—	+2	1.3
2023	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	33	31	7	1	0	2	2	10	0	0	0	226	273	452	724	226	278	30	6	312	97	-0	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.6
2023	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	337	306	76	15	5	7	19	85	9	2	1	248	311	399	710	150	314	25	6	311	97	-1	+0	—	—	+7	0.6
2023	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	206	188	50	8	3	7	11	38	7	3	3	266	330	452	782	186	298	18	5	332	111	+3	-1	—	—	+4	0.7
2024	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	114	99	25	2	0	4	10	33	5	1	0	253	351	394	745	141	339	29	9	322	104	+1	+0	-1	-4	+2	-0.2
2024	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	258	224	58	12	1	12	22	75	6	2	0	259	341	482	823	223	312	29	9	355	126	+8	+0	—	—	+6	1.4
2024	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	16	14	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	286	375	357	732	71	301	6	6	324	105	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2025	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	167	156	30	5	2	4	6	45	4	1	0	192	241	327	568	135	241	27	4	247	53	-9	+0	-7	-3	+4	-1.6
2025	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	112	106	14	2	1	1	6	37	0	0	1	132	179	198	377	66	187	33	5	176	5	-13	-0	—	—	+2	-1.1
2022	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	388	349	94	20	3	5	26	118	8	1	0	269	334	387	721	117	385	30	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	388	341	110	26	3	10	34	95	8	1	0	323	397	504	901	182	415	24	9	394	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	576	526	134	25	8	16	31	133	16	5	4	255	316	424	740	169	311	23	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	576	509	152	30	8	23	44	110	16	5	4	299	370	525	895	226	340	19	8	389	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	388	336	87	15	1	16	34	109	12	3	0	259	348	452	801	193	327	28	9	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	388	325	93	17	1	20	44	101	12	3	0	286	390	529	919	243	348	26	11	398	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	279	262	44	7	3	5	12	82	4	1	1	168	216	275	491	107	222	29	4	218	34	-22	-0	-7	-3	+6	-2.7
2025	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	279	257	45	7	3	6	16	75	4	1	1	175	234	296	530	121	220	27	6	239	34	-22	-0	-7	-3	+6	-2.7
2022	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	388	351	94	20	3	5	26	118	8	1	0	268	334	385	719	117	367	30	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	576	524	134	25	8	16	31	133	16	5	4	256	316	426	741	170	306	23	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	388	339	87	15	1	16	34	109	12	3	0	257	348	448	797	192	319	28	9	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	279	261	44	7	3	5	12	82	4	1	1	169	216	276	492	107	219	29	4	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	576	524	134	25	8	16	31	133	16	5	4	256	316	426	741	170	306	23	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	388	339	87	15	1	16	34	109	12	3	0	257	348	448	797	192	319	28	9	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	279	261	44	7	3	5	12	82	4	1	1	169	216	276	492	107	219	29	4	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	BAL	—	333	310	77	14	1	8	12	100	4	0	4	248	285	377	663	129	335	30	4	285	79	-8	-2	+0	-4	+7	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA RAW	BAL	—	333	301	87	17	1	11	20	83	4	0	4	289	340	462	802	173	360	25	6	347	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	27	AAA MLE	BAL	45%	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	111	111	111	222		304	33	0	294	85	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	27	MLB CTX	BAL	45%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		309	25	0	289	85	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	BAL	—	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		333	25	0	289	79	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	27	AAA MLE	BAL	—	342	319	78	14	1	8	12	103	4	0	4	245	281	370	651	125	330	30	4	285	79	-8	-2	-0	-4	+7	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BAL	49%	360	333	78	14	2	10	19	103	5	1	2	234	286	378	664	144	302	29	5	292	84	-7	-1	-3	-4	+8	-0.7
2027	28	MLB CTX	BAL	49%	178	164	39	7	1	5	9	51	3	1	1	238	290	384	674	146	307	29	5	286	84	-3	-0	-2	-2	+4	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	496	453	102	15	3	15	27	140	12	3	1	225	286	371	657	146	290	28	5	290	92	-10	+0	-9	-15	+11	-2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	134	20	4	20	35	183	16	4	1	226	286	374	660	148	289	28	5	290	92	-13	+0	-12	-20	+14	-3.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2000	1815	438	81	17	52	122	548	45	11	7	241	305	391	696	149	313	27	6	304	92	-13	-0	-11	-17	+15	-2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	143	26	6	17	40	178	15	4	2	242	307	393	701	151	314	27	6	304	92	-13	-0	-11	-16	+14	-2.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.9	607	18	4	224	284	368	-7	-9	-0.2	-0.2
/162	664	19	4	-7.1	-10.0	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Heston Kjerstad (OGILVIE)	27	40	45	55	35	233/283/375	143	304	9	1	28%	5%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Liberato 2023 · AAA	27	42→49	49→50	52→50	43	214/277/367	153	293	16	8	32%	8%	80	-0.1	219/283/349	130	311	12	12	31%	8%	78	-0.3	218/283/331	113	310	10	13	31%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Zach Reks 2021 · AAA	27	47→41	50	47→40	44	234/300/387	153	317	19	6	31%	8%	94	+0.9	240/310/406	166	342	18	5	33%	8%	102	+1.5	200/283/339	139	293	15	1	34%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Ka'ai Tom 2021 · AAA	27	47→48	51→50	47→50	44	236/298/406	170	300	18	8	27%	7%	97	+1.1	197/281/324	127	276	13	8	32%	8%	73	-0.6	164/260/274	110	233	12	7	33%	9%	51	-1.0
✕Nicky Delmonico 2019 · MLB	27	46→47	48→50	46→45	49	231/302/379	148	282	15	5	24%	8%	93	+0.8	221/289/353	132	288	13	6	26%	8%	82	-0.0	219/283/349	130	292	12	4	28%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Roger Kieschnick 2014 · MLB	27	44→46	49→50	49→45	41	219/274/372	153	302	15	6	32%	7%	80	-0.1	205/252/340	135	282	15	6	32%	6%	65	-1.2	191/234/319	128	258	15	5	32%	5%	50	-1.7
✕Jordan Patterson 2019 · MLB	27	41→49	49→50	46→50	37	209/277/360	151	290	17	7	33%	6%	80	-0.2	204/269/348	144	305	16	7	37%	5%	74	-0.6	176/238/308	133	273	15	4	40%	4%	51	-1.5
✕Matt Cepicky 2005 · MLB	27	46→43	48→50	50→30	41	232/277/378	145	295	16	10	27%	6%	82	+0.0	220/273/358	138	288	14	4	27%	7%	77	-0.3	208/262/344	136	273	14	2	28%	7%	69	-0.6
✕Doug DeVore 2005 · MLB	27	46	49→55	49→45	45	235/292/388	153	295	17	9	26%	7%	91	+0.6	234/283/396	162	303	20	8	29%	6%	89	+0.5	232/276/398	167	292	21	5	28%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Daniel Johnson 2022 · MLB	27	41→48	50	50→55	40	211/269/368	157	296	18	11	34%	7%	78	-0.3	211/265/348	137	285	16	15	31%	6%	72	-0.7	221/274/370	149	270	18	21	25%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Jason Vosler 2021 · AAA	27	41→44	52→55	46→40	41	215/274/379	163	292	20	4	33%	7%	82	+0.0	218/284/383	165	269	21	5	27%	8%	87	+0.4	203/271/367	164	250	22	4	28%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Jason Perry 2009 · MLB	28	43→51	52→55	52→45	43	223/296/394	172	291	20	7	30%	7%	95	+0.9	221/300/383	162	292	19	9	30%	8%	93	+0.8	173/279/321	148	220	19	4	30%	11%	72	-0.2
✕Chris Shaw 2021 · MLB	27	42→43	54→55	45→30	38	223/275/398	175	299	22	4	33%	5%	87	+0.4	193/271/330	137	326	16	7	42%	9%	70	-0.8	132/233/279	147	220	21	2	48%	11%	42	-1.1
✕Tyler Colvin 2012 · MLB	26	40→50	53→60	52→45	40	214/258/392	178	262	20	6	27%	5%	79	-0.2	226/272/393	167	296	17	8	29%	6%	84	+0.2	228/275/388	160	302	15	8	29%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Jon Knott 2006 · MLB	27	40	52→55	49→40	45	210/277/377	168	252	19	4	25%	7%	83	+0.1	218/284/395	177	264	21	4	26%	8%	90	+0.6	212/280/385	173	256	20	3	26%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Andrew Lambo 2016 · MLB	27	45→49	53→60	47→45	41	234/281/413	178	292	21	7	28%	6%	93	+0.8	210/261/323	113	278	10	7	27%	6%	63	-1.3	207/260/314	107	259	9	2	23%	6%	59	-0.7
✕Christin Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	40→49	52→55	47→45	41	213/276/383	169	279	20	4	31%	7%	84	+0.2	206/288/364	158	300	20	10	36%	9%	85	+0.2	177/277/321	144	259	20	11	38%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Matt Clark 2014 · AAA	27	44→45	50→55	44→30	44	227/285/377	151	295	19	3	29%	7%	86	+0.3	232/287/402	170	283	23	3	26%	6%	93	+0.8	222/280/391	169	270	22	0	26%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Kody Clemens 2023 · MLB	27	38→44	51→60	51→45	41	207/254/370	164	259	19	8	29%	6%	72	-0.7	216/273/396	180	260	22	9	26%	7%	86	+0.3	227/284/435	209	256	27	8	24%	6%	97	+0.8
✕Brandon Allen 2014 · MLB	28	42→47	51→55	52→50	45	217/279/382	165	274	18	7	28%	8%	84	+0.2	215/279/350	135	270	15	5	25%	8%	77	-0.3	202/271/322	120	252	13	3	25%	8%	67	-0.7
✕Andy Wilkins 2016 · MLB	27	42→45	50	44→45	42	219/261/376	156	261	19	2	25%	5%	76	-0.4	195/255/348	153	252	19	5	30%	7%	69	-0.9	165/242/318	154	223	22	3	36%	9%	56	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps