Heston Kjerstad
LF Norfolk Tides| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 274 | .301/.407/.588 | 16 | 2 | 132 | — | .266/.351/.481 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLBBAL | 114 | .253/.351/.394 | 4 | 1 | 106 | -0.1 | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAABAL | 112 | .149/.223/.248 | 2 | 0 | 8 | — | .133/.188/.200 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBBAL | 167 | .192/.241/.327 | 4 | 1 | 55 | -1.5 | |
| 2026 | 27 | AAABAL | 333 | .289/.340/.462 | 11 | 0 | 80 | — | .248/.285/.377 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBBAL | 19 | .211/.211/.263 | 0 | 0 | 26 | -0.5 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 28 | MLBBAL | 107 | .232/.286/.386 | 3 | 1 | 84 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 29 | MLBBAL | 125 | .229/.283/.379 | 4 | 0 | 81 | -0.3 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 186 | 163 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 317 | 362 | 679 | 129 | 302 | 25 | 9 | 304 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 98 | 80 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 463 | 557 | 650 | 1.207 | 188 | 565 | 17 | 13 | 523 | 189 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 104 | 98 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 388 | 622 | 1.011 | 265 | 476 | 30 | 5 | 434 | 180 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 33 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 273 | 467 | 739 | 233 | 278 | 30 | 6 | 317 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 337 | 295 | 88 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 69 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 298 | 371 | 498 | 870 | 200 | 356 | 20 | 8 | 379 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 206 | 184 | 57 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 310 | 383 | 576 | 960 | 266 | 324 | 15 | 7 | 418 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 114 | 99 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 253 | 351 | 394 | 745 | 141 | 339 | 29 | 9 | 340 | 106 | +1 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 258 | 213 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 32 | 67 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 300 | 405 | 601 | 1.006 | 300 | 353 | 26 | 12 | 424 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 16 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 438 | 385 | 822 | 77 | 333 | 6 | 12 | 383 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 167 | 156 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 241 | 327 | 568 | 135 | 241 | 27 | 4 | 253 | 55 | -9 | +0 | -7 | -3 | +4 | -1.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 112 | 101 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 149 | 223 | 248 | 471 | 99 | 188 | 27 | 9 | 218 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 19 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 211 | 263 | 474 | 53 | 400 | 47 | 0 | 210 | 26 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +0 | -0.5 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 333 | 301 | 87 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 83 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 289 | 340 | 462 | 802 | 173 | 360 | 25 | 6 | 347 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 333 | 304 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 97 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 280 | 359 | 639 | 141 | 283 | 29 | 5 | 287 | 80 | -8 | +0 | -8 | -17 | +7 | -2.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 186 | 169 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 62 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 246 | 278 | 524 | 95 | 264 | 33 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 98 | 85 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 474 | 529 | 1.004 | 129 | 518 | 22 | 8 | 448 | 189 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 33 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 273 | 452 | 724 | 226 | 278 | 30 | 6 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 337 | 305 | 80 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 85 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 262 | 326 | 423 | 749 | 161 | 331 | 25 | 6 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 206 | 188 | 51 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 271 | 335 | 457 | 792 | 186 | 309 | 18 | 5 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 114 | 101 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 248 | 333 | 386 | 719 | 139 | 339 | 29 | 7 | 325 | 106 | +1 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 258 | 223 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 75 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 265 | 349 | 489 | 838 | 224 | 323 | 29 | 9 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 16 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 357 | 732 | 71 | 307 | 6 | 6 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 167 | 156 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 241 | 327 | 568 | 135 | 241 | 27 | 4 | 249 | 55 | -9 | +0 | -7 | -3 | +4 | -1.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 112 | 105 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 133 | 188 | 200 | 388 | 67 | 192 | 33 | 6 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 19 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 211 | 263 | 474 | 53 | 400 | 47 | 0 | 207 | 26 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +0 | -0.5 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 333 | 310 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 100 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 248 | 285 | 377 | 663 | 129 | 324 | 30 | 4 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 388 | 350 | 90 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 115 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 321 | 366 | 687 | 109 | 362 | 30 | 6 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 388 | 341 | 110 | 26 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 95 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 323 | 397 | 504 | 901 | 182 | 415 | 24 | 9 | 394 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 576 | 524 | 137 | 25 | 8 | 16 | 33 | 133 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 261 | 325 | 431 | 756 | 170 | 320 | 23 | 6 | 330 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 576 | 509 | 152 | 30 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 110 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 299 | 370 | 525 | 895 | 226 | 340 | 19 | 8 | 389 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 388 | 337 | 88 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 109 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 261 | 348 | 454 | 802 | 193 | 330 | 28 | 9 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 388 | 325 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 20 | 44 | 101 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 286 | 390 | 529 | 919 | 243 | 348 | 26 | 11 | 398 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 261 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 82 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 169 | 219 | 276 | 495 | 107 | 223 | 29 | 5 | 221 | 36 | -21 | -0 | -7 | -3 | +6 | -2.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 279 | 257 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 75 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 175 | 234 | 296 | 530 | 121 | 220 | 27 | 6 | 239 | 36 | -21 | -0 | -7 | -3 | +6 | -2.6 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 352 | 329 | 81 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 109 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 246 | 281 | 371 | 652 | 125 | 338 | 31 | 3 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 352 | 320 | 91 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 92 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 284 | 333 | 450 | 783 | 166 | 362 | 26 | 6 | 340 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 388 | 352 | 90 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 115 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 256 | 321 | 364 | 685 | 108 | 352 | 30 | 6 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 576 | 522 | 137 | 25 | 8 | 16 | 33 | 133 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 262 | 325 | 433 | 758 | 170 | 320 | 23 | 6 | 330 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 388 | 340 | 88 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 109 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 259 | 348 | 450 | 798 | 191 | 327 | 28 | 9 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 260 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 82 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 169 | 219 | 277 | 496 | 108 | 221 | 29 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 352 | 333 | 81 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 109 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 243 | 281 | 366 | 648 | 123 | 328 | 31 | 3 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 388 | 340 | 88 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 109 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 259 | 348 | 450 | 798 | 191 | 327 | 28 | 9 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 260 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 82 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 169 | 219 | 277 | 496 | 108 | 221 | 29 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 352 | 333 | 81 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 109 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 243 | 281 | 366 | 648 | 123 | 328 | 31 | 3 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 45% | 368 | 340 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 102 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 282 | 377 | 659 | 149 | 289 | 28 | 5 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 45% | 107 | 98 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 286 | 386 | 672 | 154 | 294 | 28 | 6 | 298 | 84 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 48% | 262 | 242 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 73 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 279 | 370 | 649 | 145 | 287 | 28 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -6 | +0 | -3 | -3 | +6 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 48% | 125 | 115 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 283 | 379 | 662 | 150 | 292 | 28 | 6 | 294 | 81 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 458 | 419 | 93 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 132 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 283 | 370 | 653 | 148 | 287 | 29 | 5 | 289 | 91 | -11 | +0 | -9 | -18 | +10 | -2.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 132 | 20 | 4 | 20 | 35 | 187 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 222 | 283 | 370 | 653 | 148 | 286 | 29 | 5 | 289 | 91 | -15 | +1 | -13 | -26 | +14 | -4.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2483 | 2263 | 544 | 99 | 17 | 65 | 143 | 687 | 51 | 12 | 9 | 240 | 300 | 385 | 686 | 145 | 313 | 28 | 6 | 303 | 91 | -18 | +1 | -12 | -22 | +18 | -3.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 142 | 26 | 4 | 17 | 37 | 180 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 240 | 298 | 383 | 682 | 144 | 312 | 28 | 6 | 303 | 91 | -14 | +1 | -9 | -18 | +14 | -2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 333 PAwOBA .340 → .286 (−54)K% 24.9% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.92% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 24.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 6.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.54% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .340 → .286; ISO .173 → .130; BABIP .360 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 112 PAwOBA .212 → .180 (−33)K% 26.8% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.79% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.93% | ÷1.063 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.08% | ÷0.959 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 14.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.82% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 2.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷0.945 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .212 → .180; ISO .099 → .082; BABIP .188 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 258 PAwOBA .423 → .365 (−58)K% 26.0% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.97% | ÷1.070 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.40% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.60% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | ×0.984 | ×1.033 | 22.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.59% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×1.033 | 8.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.984 | ×1.033 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.96% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 7.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .423 → .365; ISO .300 → .241; BABIP .353 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABowie Baysox · 16 PAwOBA .374 → .328 (−46)K% 6.2% → 7.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 7.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 5.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 24.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.062 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.135 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .374 → .328; ISO .077 → .065; BABIP .333 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 337 PAwOBA .371 → .326 (−45)K% 20.5% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.47% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.72% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.89% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×0.998 | ×1.048 | 22.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.41% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×1.048 | 7.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.21% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×1.048 | 2.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.42% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .371 → .326; ISO .200 → .167; BABIP .356 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABowie Baysox · 206 PAwOBA .406 → .340 (−66)K% 15.0% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.05% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.28% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.40% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.57% | ÷0.965 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 22.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.54% | ÷1.046 | ×0.860 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.998 | ×0.950 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.19% | ÷1.208 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.70% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .406 → .340; ISO .266 → .192; BABIP .324 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 186 PAwOBA .301 → .237 (−64)K% 25.3% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.27% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.60% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.55% | ÷0.980 | ×0.870 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 19.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.955 | ×0.780 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.964 | ×0.850 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.029 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.21% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .301 → .237; ISO .129 → .105; BABIP .302 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 98 PAwOBA .513 → .448 (−65)K% 17.3% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.35% | ÷1.061 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷0.979 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 3.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 41.27% | ÷0.955 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 39.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 12.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.128 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.23% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 91, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 112, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .513 → .448; ISO .188 → .151; BABIP .565 → .518. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .