Heston Kjerstad — OGILVIE

Heston KjerstadLF Norfolk Tides

Age 27 L/R 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 1.238 · Ctrl thru 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION189 act + 126 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL -3746vR 78

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .296 / .405

PA126

HR4

K%31

BB%6

BABIP324

ISO164

MLB%55%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

Whiff%

1614.8%

xwOBA

430.301

POWER45

Barrel%

538.6

Avg EV

5889.7

Bat Spd

3269.4

EYE35

Chase%

1040.0%

SPEED55

Sprint

5527.7

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 265 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

242

—

wRC+

-36

▶▶R

wOBA

139

292

▶▶R

ISO

—

156

—

BABIP

167

270

▶▶R

39.1%

26.9%

▶▶R

BB%

4.3%

5.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.238 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.3M		$-2M	-$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	23	A+	3 teams	—	388	349	97	20	3	5	26	117	8	1	0	278	342	395	737	117	397	30	7	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	3 teams	—	388	341	110	26	3	10	34	95	8	1	0	323	397	504	901	182	415	24	9	394	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	3 teams	—	576	525	133	24	8	17	32	137	16	5	4	253	316	427	743	173	310	24	6	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	3 teams	—	576	509	152	30	8	23	44	110	16	5	4	299	370	525	895	226	340	19	8	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	3 teams	—	388	336	91	15	1	18	34	105	12	3	0	271	359	482	841	211	333	27	9	364	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	3 teams	—	388	325	93	17	1	20	44	101	12	3	0	286	390	529	919	243	348	26	11	398	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	279	262	44	6	3	6	12	84	4	1	1	168	216	282	498	115	220	30	4	220	26	-23	-0	-7	-3	+8	-2.6
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	279	257	45	7	3	6	16	75	4	1	1	175	234	296	530	121	220	27	6	239	41	-19	-0	-7	-3	+8	-2.1
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	BAL	—	189	179	45	9	0	4	5	65	1	0	3	251	276	369	644	117	360	34	3	279	72	-6	-1	+0	-2	+5	-0.4
YTD	27	AAA	BAL	—	189	176	52	11	0	5	8	54	1	0	3	295	330	443	773	148	388	29	4	336	115	+3	-1	+0	-2	+5	0.5
ROS	27	AAA	BAL	55%	126	116	28	5	1	4	7	39	2	1	1	241	296	405	701	164	307	31	6	293	83	-2	-0	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
ROS	27	MLB	BAL	55%	69	64	15	3	0	2	4	21	1	0	0	234	290	375	665	141	312	30	6	288	79	-2	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.1
FULL	27	AAA	BAL	—	258	243	60	12	0	6	9	86	2	0	3	247	280	370	650	123	348	33	3	281	74	-8	-1	-1	-3	+7	-0.5
TOT	27	AAA	BAL	—	315	295	73	14	1	8	12	104	3	1	4	247	284	383	667	136	346	33	4	285	76	-9	-1	-1	-3	+9	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	BAL	55%	360	333	77	13	2	11	19	111	5	2	2	231	283	381	664	150	305	31	5	292	81	-8	-0	-3	-4	+10	-0.5
2027	28	MLB	BAL	55%	197	182	42	7	1	6	10	61	3	1	1	231	282	379	661	148	310	31	5	286	77	-5	-0	-2	-2	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	580	531	119	18	3	18	32	170	13	3	1	224	284	371	655	147	293	29	6	289	80	-13	+0	-10	-16	+16	-2.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	133	20	3	20	36	191	15	3	1	224	284	368	652	145	293	29	6	289	80	-15	+0	-11	-18	+18	-2.6
Career	—			—	2117	1921	470	83	18	61	130	593	47	13	8	245	308	402	710	157	318	28	6	310	95	-11	-1	-12	-23	+60	1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	145	25	6	19	40	182	14	4	2	246	309	405	714	159	319	28	6	310	95	-3	+0	-4	-7	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	23	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	186	163	38	8	2	3	16	47	4	1	0	233	317	362	679	129	302	25	9	304	91	-2	+0	—	—	+5	0.4
2022	23	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	98	80	37	9	0	2	13	17	4	0	0	463	557	650	1.207	188	565	17	13	523	258	+18	+0	—	—	+3	2.1
2022	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	104	98	35	9	1	5	5	31	0	0	0	357	388	622	1.011	265	476	30	5	434	190	+11	+0	—	—	+3	1.4
2023	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	33	30	7	1	0	2	2	10	0	0	0	233	273	467	739	233	278	30	6	317	101	+0	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.5
2023	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	337	295	88	19	5	10	27	69	9	2	1	298	371	498	870	200	356	20	8	379	148	+18	+0	—	—	+10	2.8
2023	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	206	184	57	10	3	11	15	31	7	3	3	310	383	576	960	266	324	15	7	418	178	+18	-1	—	—	+6	2.4
2024	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	114	99	25	2	0	4	10	33	5	1	0	253	351	394	745	141	339	29	9	340	118	+2	+0	-1	-4	+3	0.1
2024	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	258	213	64	14	1	16	32	67	6	2	0	300	405	601	1.006	300	353	26	12	424	183	+24	+0	—	—	+7	3.3
2024	25	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	16	13	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	308	438	385	822	77	333	6	12	383	151	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2025	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	167	156	30	5	2	4	6	45	4	1	0	192	241	327	568	135	241	27	4	253	52	-9	+0	-7	-3	+5	-1.4
2025	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	112	101	15	2	1	2	10	30	0	0	1	149	223	248	471	99	188	27	9	218	25	-10	-0	—	—	+3	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	314	285	62	8	2	10	18	88	9	2	0	218	284	365	649	147	277	28	6	291	81	-7	+0	-8	-13	+9	-1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	7	1,560	54	2	243	309	416	-15	-16	1.6	1.6
#3John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	/162	664	23	1	243	309	416	-6.5	-6.7	0.7	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	599	18	4	223	282	370	-6	-9	-0.2	-0.2
	/162	664	20	4	223	282	370	-7.1	-10.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Heston Kjerstad (OGILVIE)	27	40	45	55	35	247/284/383	136	346	8	1	33%	4%	76	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Vosler 2021 · AAA	27	40→43	53→55	46→40	39	213/269/383	170	291	22	4	34%	6%	79	+0.3	222/288/399	177	271	22	5	27%	8%	92	+1.2	209/278/387	177	255	24	4	28%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Doug DeVore 2005 · MLB	27	46	49→55	49→45	45	235/292/388	153	295	17	9	26%	7%	89	+1.0	234/284/399	165	302	20	8	29%	6%	89	+1.0	232/276/398	167	292	21	5	28%	5%	85	+0.5
✕Zach Reks 2021 · AAA	27	46→39	51→55	47→40	43	231/296/388	158	315	20	6	32%	8%	92	+1.2	249/316/429	180	353	21	5	33%	7%	111	+2.5	209/291/365	155	308	17	1	35%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Tyler Colvin 2013 · MLB	27	43→52	53→60	52→45	40	224/265/405	181	278	19	7	27%	5%	82	+0.5	209/255/341	132	291	12	7	31%	6%	61	-1.0	193/237/298	105	282	8	5	33%	5%	39	-1.4
✕Brandon Allen 2014 · MLB	28	41→47	52→55	52→50	44	217/277/388	171	275	19	7	29%	8%	83	+0.6	214/276/351	137	271	15	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1	203/270/324	121	255	14	3	25%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Larry Broadway 2008 · AAA	27	45→48	49→50	49→40	45	228/287/374	147	291	16	5	27%	8%	84	+0.6	222/277/351	129	296	13	5	28%	7%	73	-0.1	216/270/336	120	289	12	2	28%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Jon Knott 2006 · MLB	27	39→40	52→55	49→40	44	209/275/377	167	251	19	4	25%	7%	80	+0.4	220/285/403	183	265	22	4	26%	7%	91	+1.1	216/283/399	183	257	22	3	26%	8%	86	+0.6
✕Billy McKinney 2022 · MLB	27	41→51	52→55	49→45	50	216/292/393	176	266	19	5	26%	9%	92	+1.2	218/298/374	156	292	18	6	30%	9%	89	+1.0	214/296/366	152	268	19	6	27%	9%	83	+0.3
✕John-Ford Griffin 2007 · AAA	27	40→39	51→55	45→40	41	215/267/373	158	270	20	4	29%	6%	76	+0.0	219/276/378	159	282	18	5	28%	7%	81	+0.4	215/275/369	154	277	17	4	28%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Luis Liberato 2023 · AAA	27	41→51	48→55	52→50	42	209/271/355	146	291	16	8	33%	8%	72	-0.2	218/281/345	127	314	12	12	32%	8%	74	-0.1	221/287/335	114	319	10	13	32%	8%	70	-0.1
✕Chris Shaw 2021 · MLB	27	43	55→60	45→30	37	228/278/411	183	305	24	4	33%	5%	91	+1.1	189/265/326	137	333	16	7	44%	9%	63	-0.8	114/217/256	141	217	21	2	54%	11%	24	-1.3
✕Roger Kieschnick 2014 · MLB	27	43→46	50→55	49→45	41	218/274/377	159	304	17	6	33%	7%	79	+0.3	200/247/333	133	280	15	6	33%	5%	56	-1.3	182/224/303	121	252	14	5	33%	4%	36	-2.0
✕Jason Cooper 2008 · AAA	27	42→38	49→55	51→45	43	213/273/372	159	280	16	9	29%	7%	78	+0.2	213/281/351	138	268	12	8	24%	7%	76	+0.0	209/292/352	144	249	13	3	21%	8%	79	+0.2
✕Andy Wilkins 2016 · MLB	27	42→46	53→55	44→45	41	223/263/393	170	265	21	2	25%	5%	79	+0.3	194/252/356	162	251	21	5	31%	7%	66	-0.6	164/243/338	174	220	25	3	38%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Kody Clemens 2023 · MLB	27	38→44	53→60	51→45	40	210/256/385	175	259	22	8	29%	6%	74	-0.1	219/276/410	191	259	24	9	26%	7%	89	+1.0	227/284/442	214	256	27	8	24%	6%	98	+1.0
✕Matt Cepicky 2005 · MLB	27	46→43	48→50	50→30	41	232/277/378	145	295	16	10	27%	6%	80	+0.4	220/273/360	140	288	14	4	28%	7%	74	-0.1	208/262/348	140	273	15	2	29%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Stuart Fairchild 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	52→50	50→55	42	223/298/390	167	299	20	13	31%	7%	94	+1.3	223/301/370	147	293	16	20	28%	8%	89	+1.0	220/316/365	145	284	15	26	26%	9%	92	+0.7
✕Slade Heathcott 2018 · MLB	27	46→43	48→45	46→50	42	227/288/367	140	312	16	10	31%	7%	82	+0.5	226/285/356	130	327	13	13	33%	7%	79	+0.3	217/273/305	88	346	4	17	36%	6%	55	-0.3
✕Shed Long Jr. 2022 · MLB	26	44→47	50	49→50	45	225/285/378	153	293	17	9	29%	8%	84	+0.6	224/292/350	126	317	12	10	31%	8%	79	+0.3	191/272/253	61	319	0	9	36%	9%	42	-0.4
✕Daniel Johnson 2022 · MLB	27	43→50	53→55	50→55	39	221/276/395	174	306	21	11	34%	6%	85	+0.7	219/273/375	156	290	20	15	31%	6%	79	+0.3	234/288/409	175	280	23	21	25%	6%	91	+0.8