Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cubs 1 | 13 | 12 | 56 | 238 | 54 | 14 | 3 | 92% | 4.3 | 15.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 1.8% | 3.51 | 3.70 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cubs 1 | 13 | 12 | 56 | 238 | 54 | 14 | 3 | 92% | 4.3 | 22.7% | 5.9% | 16.8% | 1.3% | 3.51 | 2.62 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 10 | 10 | 44 | 184 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 4.4 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 0.8% | 2.86 | 3.08 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 10 | 10 | 44 | 184 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 4.4 | 27.2% | 7.1% | 20.1% | 0.5% | 2.86 | 2.01 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.2 | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.00 | 3.82 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.2 | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.00 | 3.88 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.1% | 3.5% | 31.6% | 3.5% | 3.95 | 2.51 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.1% | 3.5% | 31.6% | 3.5% | 3.95 | 2.51 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 21 | 93 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 1.71 | 2.96 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 21 | 93 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.8% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 1.71 | 2.24 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 23 | 0 | 30 | 141 | 35 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 4.55 | 4.01 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 23 | 0 | 30 | 141 | 35 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 1.4% | 4.55 | 3.23 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 34 | 0 | 59 | 255 | 72 | 43 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 22.9% | 18.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 3.03 | 4.56 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 34 | 0 | 59 | 255 | 72 | 43 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 28.2% | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 3.03 | 3.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 30 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 17.1% | 1.6% | 2.78 | 2.92 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 41 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 18.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 5.31 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 18.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 5.31 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 78 | 332 | 88 | 45 | 7 | — | — | 26.6% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 2.0% | 4.16 | 4.22 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 47 | 198 | 88 | 45 | 7 | — | — | 44.5% | 22.6% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 6.93 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 67 | 51 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 17.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 5.23 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 65 | 48 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 17.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.22 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 64 | 49 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 17.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 5.23 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 46 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 17.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.22 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 167 | 0 | 176 | 740 | 172 | 127 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 17.1% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 4.78 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 841 | 195 | 144 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 17.1% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 4.78 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 140 | 26 | 269 | 1161 | 243 | 133 | 18 | 19% | 1.9 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 1.5% | 3.22 | 3.61 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 104 | 19 | 200 | 864 | 181 | 99 | 13 | 19% | 1.9 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 1.5% | 3.22 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yovanny Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.31 | 22.9% | 18.2% | 2.7% | — | 5.25 | 22.9% | 5.7% | 136 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Baez R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 84 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 81 |
| Dario Beltre R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 17.0% | 1.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 110 | 81 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.60 | 24.0% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .225 | 5.38 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 78 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 158 | 81 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.21 | 13.5% | -4.3% | 15 | -0.15 | 3.58 | 169 | 81 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 16.2% | 2.0% | .351 | 3.67 | 14.2% | 4.6% | 18 | -0.83 | 3.67 | 108 | 81 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 81 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.49 | 21.9% | 16.7% | 2.1% | .367 | 4.98 | 19.5% | 1.7% | 83 | +0.49 | 3.72 | 197 | 80 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 80 |
| Michael Hobbs R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 1.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 184 | 80 |
| Chris Perry R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 19.3% | 0.8% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 113 | 80 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 80 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.62 | 21.4% | 19.3% | 1.6% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 168 | 80 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.77 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 2.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 203 | 79 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.20 | 27.2% | 20.0% | 1.6% | .331 | 4.52 | 22.4% | 3.4% | 50 | +0.32 | 4.20 | 311 | 79 |
| Evan Johnson R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.43 | 23.6% | 17.6% | 2.0% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 103 | 78 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.67 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 172 | 78 |
| Manuel Alvarez R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.22 | 20.3% | 17.1% | 3.0% | .330 | 6.73 | 11.8% | -14.8% | 12 | +1.51 | 4.59 | 154 | 78 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 78 |
| Kyle Wilcox R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.80 | 25.1% | 21.2% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.67 | 25.1% | -1.5% | 13 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 310 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 22.9% | 17.5% | 1.07 | 5.25 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |